Individual Consultant: Impacts and Policy Lessons (Remote)

Job Description

Objective and Purpose of the Assignment

COVID-19 disrupts economic activities by halting consumer spending, crippling production activities and triggering financial shock. The global economic disruption will affect merchandise trade, trade in commercial services, and global and regional value chains. The intensity of the global economic disruption on consumer spending, halting or reducing production activities, and shocking financial markets depends on depth of the pandemic crisis in domestic economies, and on the integration of the destinations and origins of the disrupted economies.

World Bank, IMF, ADB, UNCTAC, ESCAP and many other international organization have revised downward global GDP forecasts, and analyze how COVID-19 is going to impact the macroeconomic prudential. However, impact analysis at Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) level is not obvious. To analyze COVID-19 impact at micro level it is important to explore SMEs export activities, valued addition in GDPs, employment share, and SMEs participation in both direct and indirect regional and global value chains in CAREC region.

It is high time to study a detailed COVID-19 economic impacts that will highlights disruption in consumption, production, and in financial markets. However, doing comprehensive analysis brings in too many compromises to economic analysis that may not produce a realistic impact analysis. Therefore, we are going to parse out the comprehensive analysis to how COVID-19 impacts Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)? What are the channels through it is impacted, how both the businesses and governments can strategize to revitalize the sector? What interventions would be needed? Any downturn in the SME sector has direct and severe impact on poverty.

Substantial amount of GDP (42%) and employment (62%) is generated by SMEs in CAREC region explained by ADB. However, CAREC region has continued its focus on extractive labor intensive enterprises which is susceptible to external shocks like economic crises and COVID-19 that eventually bring in surge in unemployment. COVID-19 impacts world of work in three dimensions namely, “quantity of job (unemployment and underemployment), quality of work (wages and access to social protection), and vulnerable working groups (informal sectors)”. The recent ILO Monitor (17 April 2020) posits that a substantial amount of the workers in the informal economy are affected in developing and emerging economies. Leveraging SMEs in both informal and formal sectors in the CAREC region will not only fill out employment gap but will have enormous contribution to regional GDPs.

Number of surveys are launched to overcome the limitations of the economic projection models, and to have sector specific analysis to study the impact of COVID-19 crisis on SMEs. These countries surveys results had pin pointed the following disruptions: supply chain disruption, reduction in sales, employment reduction, and cash flows which is one of the major problems facing SMEs in these respective countries.

The value proposition of the study would be to capture “COVID-19 impact on SMEs in CAREC region” that is missed out so far in the regional SMEs surveys. Focused analysis of SMEs will not only help to get the ground realities of employment, domestic commerce, and export disruption, and crippling of value addition in GDPs but will posit us to derive targeted intervention.

Scope of Work

Depth and length of the pandemic matters, therefore, this study reckons that the impact of covid-19 is evolving, not yet realized completely hence it would be a little tricky to analyze the impact on broader economic sectors (SMEs) and especially poverty. It would be more pronounced and devastating by the last quarter of the year. It will also be complicated as few of SMEs in China have started off their activities though with not potential. To capture specificity of the CAREC region the primary objectives will be:

• To figure out SMEs domestic commerce, export, and supply chain disruptions by COVID-19. • To figure out SMEs formal and informal employment disruption due COVID-19 crisis. • Analyze impact of the current policies introduced by CAREC governments to support economy under COVID- 19’s on SME’s • Recommend possible fiscal and monetary measures for CAREC countries to revitalize SMEs sector.

In addition,

• This analysis will help us to see global changing economic perspective from CAREC lenses. This will help to chalk out measures both preventing and stabilizing the economy afterwards.
• This study will also walk us to compare national SMEs polices in order to identity potential regional effects and promoting regional cooperation.
• Finally, are there any SME sectors in CAREC economies which are working well under the COVID-19 outbreak (except health sector which seems less affected), and what are lessons to learn: reasons for resilience – “best practices”.

Specific Role and Responsibilities

In consultation with the CAREC Institute (CI) research team the consultant shall:

• 1. Undertake a very detailed and comprehensive literature review related to Covid-19 outbreak and SMEs sectors specifically CAREC region.
• 2. Consult other relevant studies in order to understand systematic, long-term impacts of the COVID-19 on SME’s, including on informal employment.
• 3. Highlight both primary and secondary data caveats, and how to overcome data gaps.
• 4. Construct a focused questionnaire based on study objectives.
• 5. Develop research methodology on impact of the COVID-19 on SME sector (inception report).
• 6. Conduct pilot testing of on-line survey “impact of COVID-19 on SMEs” jointly with ADB and CAREC Institute.
• 7. Compilation and analysis of the questionnaire data.
• 8. Support CAREC Institute and ADBI in systematic survey of the impact of SME’s in CAREC countries. Provide analytical support on analysis of the collected information
• 9. Prepare systematic lessons from the impact of Covid-19 outbreak on SMEs sectors of CAREC region based on survey .
• 10. To identify opportunities for enhancing and expanding cooperation among member states in the SMEs sectors to maximize economic opportunities.
• 11. Prepare recommendations for policy measures and proposed activities, action plan or next steps including areas of technical assistance or capacity-building;
• 12. Provide policy recommendations for promoting a regional approach to leapfrogging SMEs sectors and capacity building of the executing agencies to maximize economic opportunities and to safeguard SMES ecosystems.
• 13. Prepare a report on “Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on SMEs sectors of CAREC region: impacts and policy lessons”.

Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output

The Consultant will work with Research Division under Deputy Director 2 of CAREC Institute (CI). Following descriptions are the detailed tasks, duties and responsibilities for the Consultant:

• 1. A policy brief of 2000~3000 words before 30 June 2020.
• 2. An original publishable* research paper covering (using Arial 11-point font, one and a half line spacing, in the range of 60-80 pages, A4). The paper should include an abstract, keywords, and should be accompanied by excel files for any figures and non-editable tables.
• 3. Attendance in workshops and conferences organized by ADB-CI and other sponsors for this activity.
• 4. A blog post of 600-1,000 words on CI’s website / Policy Perspective Blog.
• 5. Attend the inception video-con and the final conference organized by ADB and CI, and give presentations, if required, at each of these activities.

Minimum Qualification Requirements

• 1. Ph.D. degree major in economics and related area.
• 2. 5 years’ research experience preferably to SMEs.
• 3. More than 10 years working experience in the field of applied economics.
• 4. Relevant research papers in related discipline .
• 5. Working experience in international organizations will be a plus.
• 6. Working experience in country consultations regarding SMEs will be a plus.
• 7. Working experience in conducting surveys regarding domestic and international trade, and trade facilitation will be a plus.

Minimum General Experience: 15 Years

Minimum Specific Experience: (relevant to assignment) 5 Years

Project Officer Lyaziza G. Sabyrova
Designation Principal Regional Economist
Asian Development Bank
Email lsabyrova@adb.org