Background
AGRA is a not-for-profit organization working with African governments, other donors, NGOs, the private sector, and farmers to improve the productivity and incomes of resource-poor smallholder farmers in Africa. AGRA aims to catalyze an inclusive agricultural transformation needed to accelerate the achievement of the Malabo Declaration commitments and related indicators from the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the Sustainable Development Goals, and Africa’s Agenda 2063. For more information about AGRA, please visit www.agra.org.
Across African countries today, there is a need for better, more timely use of evidence, and more targeted approaches, to improve the quality of policymaking by African governments specifically to overcome policy constraints and structural blockages to agricultural transformation. This need has been recognized by the African Union, which calls for analytical support mechanisms to enhance the use of evidence in policymaking. AGRA responds to this gap by working through instituting the Data and Analytics unit to provide consolidation and translation advisory services to governments seeking to reform, refine, and/ or develop a more clearly defined policy direction.
The approach recognizes the urgent need for timely policy support to the agriculture sector, which plays an important role in ensuring inclusive growth. It also recognizes the demands for political expediency and the need to ensure that a particular policy direction is anchored in evidence.
In partnership with Mastercard Foundation, AGRA is implementing a 5-year programme (2024-2028) focused on youth in work through agriculture and agro processing, called Youth Entrepreneurship for the Future of Food and Agriculture (YEFFA) programme. The YEFFA programme is founded on expanding the functioning of food systems for youth jobs and aims to catalyze dignified and fulfilling work for young people, especially young women and disadvantaged groups, through the growth of inclusive food systems and agriculture value chains. The program puts youth employment and a gender transformative approach at the heart of AGRA’s focus on achieving Inclusive Agriculture and Food Systems Transformation in Africa. In supporting the expansion of youth employment through investments in agricultural value chains, AGRA’s work is delivered through four (4) business lines (Seed System; Sustainable Farming System; Policy and State Capability; and Inclusive Markets and Trade System).
Within YEFFA, we have work in two domains: a) within crop-based or livestock-based value chains (e.g. rice, soybean, poultry, banana, maize etc) and b) enable sectors that enable growth in value chains, e.g. transport, extension services, climate services, digital and information services, seed and other inputs.
Rationale
AGRA is looking for an Industrial, Labour or Private Sector Development Economist consultancy to support our Data and Analytics team to model the impact of value chain development interventions on youth in work, including young women. Our Analytics team has developed a model for this, modelling out over 10 years in the future. It was developed last year with a focus on Rwanda as a test case. Support is needed to support the team to strengthen the model and to roll it out to another 10 countries in 2025. The model is required to:
A) estimate in the future (out to 2028 and also 2035) expected all work, youth in work and young women in work in targeted value chains that AGRA is focusing on under YEFFA
B) estimate retrospectively actual work (all ages, youth in work, young women in work) created, add, improved or sustained (with a reliable income) in targeted value chains as a result of all interventions, particularly those focused on the enabling environment for specific targeted value chains, conducted by this programme. This requires estimating the total number of work opportunities (by age and gender) in 2023/2024 and in each year thereafter up to 2035, and including and especially 2028 – which is the end year for YEFFA.
Support is needed for rolling out this model in 10 countries, while strengthening it and while collaborating with a separate consultant who is working on a model for estimating the youth in work impact of enabling environment interventions that are non-value chain specific (e.g. value chain agnostic access to finance reforms, extension reforms, upskilling programs etc) at national, regional (West, East, South Africa) and continental levels. This collaboration, which will be coordinated by the Data and Analytics team, is needed to ensure a linkage between these two models (one targeted at systemic value chain impacts, the other targeted at value-chain agnostic value chain impacts). Note that at regional level, the work of the other consultancy includes a focus on regional value chains (e.g. rice in West Africa, horticultural value chains in COMESA and SADC).
The consultant will be a core part of the Data and Analytics team and support the team in its analytics work.
Objectives
The objectives of the consultancy are to support AGRA’s Data and Analytics team to roll out the value chain youth in work model across 10 countries within 2025. The consultant must be flexible and respond to the needs of the Analytics team, serving as a form of surge capacity while providing input, feedback and suggestions for model strengthening and roll out.
Specific objectives are:
1. Review AGRA’s existing value chain youth in work model to familiarize with its approach (it uses business case analytics as a basis and further employs machine learning for predicting future work opportunities).
2. Make suggestions for strengthening the model
3. Employ Computable General Equilibrium models for modelling tertiary jobs and continental jobs
4. Support the modelling work for any of the 10 countries as asked by the Data and Analytics team
5. Support data collection efforts in country as needed. From time to time, the consultant may be asked to support other related exercises such as assessing the economic impact of existing AGRA investments, including cost-benefit analyses and economic impact assessments.
6. Communicate complex economic concepts and findings clearly and effectively to nonspecialist audiences, including senior management and external stakeholders
Responsibilities
The responsibilities of the consultant shall include:
1. Conduct comprehensive economic analyses to evaluate the impact of AGRA’s investments related to job creation for the youth, entrepreneurship and agro industrialization.
2. Develop and apply Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the economy-wide impacts of labor market changes in agri-food systems.
3. Reconcile micro-level labor market data with macro-level economic indicators.
4. Model structural changes in labor markets with a youth and women lens while accounting for price adjustments, resource constraints, and market clearing conditions
5. Quantify primary, secondary, and tertiary youth and women employment effects of policy interventions or economic shocks.
6. Develop frameworks, metrics, indicators and tools for tracking youth and women job opportunities from continental initiatives in agricultural value chains.
7. Evaluate and quantify the impact of continental trade policies and agreements like AfCFTA on youth and women job creation, wage dynamics, and labor mobility in the agricultural sector and analyze how reduced trade barriers and increased market access affect agricultural sector economies across multiple YEFFA countries.
8. Calculate employment multipliers to estimate how job creation in agroindustries affects overall employment
9. Develop input-output models to trace the ripple effects of agricultural sector growth through the broader economy
10. Communicate complex economic concepts and findings clearly and effectively to non-specialist audiences, including senior management and external stakeholders
Qualifications and Experience
Requirements for the qualifications, expertise, and experience of the consultant.
i. Academic qualifications
a) Must have a degree in Economics, preferably Labor Economics or Development Economics. A master’s degree is highly preferred.
b) A minimum of 10 years of relevant professional experience with an understanding of agricultural laws, food security, devolution, social and economic development, governance, and markets in Kenya.
c) Demonstrated experience in leading or supporting the development of agricultural legislative frameworks, analytical work, and advocacy efforts.
d) Track record in conducting research, analytics, and developing data collection systems in the agriculture sector in Kenya.
e) Understanding of country and county governments’ legislative frameworks related to food security and markets.
ii. Experience of the consultant in similar assignments
A minimum of 5 years’ experience in industrial economics, labor economics, development economics or related fields
b) In-depth knowledge of labor workforce development and system strengthening.
c) Familiarity with business case and value chain analytics, CGE models as well as with Machine Learning and AI tools for modelling.
d) Ability to produce high-quality technical documents on various issues of agrifood systems, work opportunities and job impacts.
e) Demonstrated experience in analyzing complex labor market microdata and macro-data using advanced quantitative models in analyzing labor policies.
f) Ability to communicate clearly, taking into consideration a working environment which is multi-disciplinary, multi-cultural and international.
g) Excellent interpersonal and analytical skills including knowledge in statistical tools like STATA, Python, R, GAMS or similar tools for data analysis and model building.
h) Ability to handle multiple projects simultaneously, often under tight deadlines.
i) Understanding of labour markets, economic transformation and industrial, competition and political economy economics.
j) Knowledge of green jobs creation, and related policy frameworks.
k) Familiarity with economic modeling and forecasting techniques.
l) A strong team spirit and a highly collaborative attitude with ability to take feedback and be responsive to the needs of AGRA.
iii. Key Skills/Competencies
The Consultant should possess strong demonstrated knowledge and experience in Labour or Industrial Economics. The Consultant shall be liable for the overall management And delivery of the Services.
i. Key skills and competencies include In-depth knowledge of labor workforce development and systems strengthening.
ii. Ability to produce high-quality technical documents on various issues of agrifood systems, work opportunities and job impacts.
iii. Demonstrated experience in analyzing complex labor market microdata and macro-data (at continental level) using advanced quantitative models in analyzing labor policies.
iv. Ability to communicate clearly, taking into consideration a working environment which is multi-disciplinary, multi-cultural and international.
v. Excellent interpersonal and analytical skills.
vi. Ability to handle multiple projects simultaneously, often under tight deadlines.
