45 climate goals, 0 on track: The Earth’s failing report card

Halfway through what was once called the “decisive decade,” global climate action is faltering. Political will is fading, the finance gap keeps widening, and the chance of keeping average global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius is quickly diminishing. There are areas of significant progress and an indication that the renewable economy is moving forward with or without the United States, but a report published Wednesday by the World Resources Institute found backsliding on global climate action and electric vehicle uptake; no movement on phasing out coal, halting deforestation, and reducing agriculture emissions; and an increase in public finance for fossil fuels. Overall, the report found that out of 45 indicators used to measure climate action, not a single one is on track. Tens of thousands of diplomats, negotiators, NGOs, and journalists are set to meet in Brazil for the 30th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP30, next month. They will do so in an entirely different world than when the very first COP was held. This world has experienced climate change-caused extreme heat and drought, wildfires that have ravaged communities everywhere from the tropics to the poles, marine heat waves, intensified hurricanes, and the lowest-ever sea ice cover in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Ten years after the Paris Agreement was signed, the world remains below the 1.5 C threshold that scientists say marks a point of escalating and irreversible damage. But 2024 was the first full year on record in which global average temperature rise exceeded that threshold — reaching 1.55 degrees above pre-industrial levels. “The 1.5 degree limit is in jeopardy,” said Ani Dasgupta, the president and CEO of WRI. “Before Paris, the world was headed toward a 4 degrees Celsius-plus future. Since then, all the actions we have taken have improved the trajectory to a 3-degree world. But if you look at all the promises that countries, cities, and businesses have made, if we implemented them, we’d be near a 1.8- or 1.9-degree world. This implementation gap is something we all need to focus on.” More and more people attend these annual climate conferences each year — as of early August, at least 50,000 people had booked rooms — but at the end of the day, the report card is grim. The bad news Instead of accelerating toward decarbonization, major economies are backsliding. The United States, the world’s second-largest emitter and its largest historical one, has scaled back environmental agencies, discontinued investments in climate science, and announced its intention to once again withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Across the corporate and political spheres, a backlash against environmental, social, and governance principles has weakened commitments and led to an exodus of financial institutions from net-zero alliances. The result is a steady erosion of international solidarity. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and cuts to development aid have further undermined the cooperation needed to meet shared goals. Even in areas of progress, momentum is slowing. Electric vehicle sales are no longer on track for 2030 targets, with growth stagnating in major markets. In Germany and France, this is likely due to the loss of subsidies, while in the U.S., it’s partly due to the slow development of public charging infrastructure as well as affordability. Deforestation remains high, still equivalent to losing 22 football (soccer) fields of forest every minute in 2024. and declines in coal generation would need to accelerate sevenfold to align with the Paris Agreement-mandated temperature limit. “We need renewed political will to act multilaterally in an age of growing unilateralism,” said Mohamed Adow, the founder and director of Power Shift Africa. “What we’re lacking, and I think it’s important for all of us to acknowledge, is the political will. And unless we have our leaders stepping forward and providing the leadership that is needed ... we won’t be able to effectively tackle climate change.” Flickers of hope Despite the grim outlook, the world’s efforts have reduced the overall warming estimate. In 2024, global clean energy investment reached $2 trillion — almost double the level of fossil fuel investments — and renewable power capacity expanded by a record margin. Renewables now account for over 40% of global electricity production, and China alone has installed more than one terawatt of solar capacity. Electric vehicle sales have soared in parts of Asia, and the cost of clean technologies continues to plummet. “We have the solutions. We know what it takes, and the finance is out there if we would structure it right, and ensure that it’s fair for all,” said Wanjira Mathai, managing director for Africa and global partnerships at WRI, during a press conference for the launch of the report. During the 80th United Nations General Assembly, countries gathered to share their climate ambitions for the next five years, also known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, just two days after U.S. President Donald Trump questioned the legitimacy of climate change in his UNGA speech. And as the U.S. retreats from climate leadership, countries are increasingly looking to China for action. In the first half of this year, the country installed more than double the solar capacity of the rest of the world combined. It is leading in the green energy transition and maintaining its commitment to climate goals. It remains the world’s highest emitter. “China has been very shy in the way its climate commitments went in September,” said Alejandra López, director of climate diplomacy at the NGO Transforma. “But in real terms, unlike developed countries, China is willing to invest in developing countries in the global south.” China’s Belt and Road initiative has also positioned it well to invest in developing countries’ infrastructure. Mark Bynoe, head of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, echoed this. “I do believe that we have to continue to work with those who are willing to work with us,” he said. “One might think China is only working in her own best interest, but she’s the best bet we have to date.” The finance fault line The financing gap is perhaps the most consequential divide of the decade. Emerging markets and developing economies face a shortfall measured in trillions. Expert estimates suggest these countries, excluding China, will need $2.3 trillion to 2.5 trillion annually by 2030. Yet in 2023, total international climate finance amounted to just $1.9 trillion — more than doubling the 0.9 trillion flow in 2019, but still a fraction of what’s required. Private finance has skyrocketed — rising from roughly $870 billion in 2022 to a record high of $1.3 trillion in 2023. Consumers, investors, and businesses mostly in China and Western Europe, helped drive this, according to the WRI report. But experts say it is still not enough, and public finance is needed. Multilateral development banks sit at the center of the finance question. They are equipped to provide affordable, long-term finance — and to crowd in private investment — but their lending has not kept pace. Global leaders have urged MDBs to triple their lending, while the Group of 20 leading economies has recommended capital increases of between $255 billion–$572 billion. A narrowing window The picture heading into COP30 in Belém, Brazil, is mixed. Renewable technologies are maturing faster than anyone predicted a decade ago. Private climate finance is rising. But the pace of global transformation — the shift away from fossil fuels, the scaling of adaptation, the restructuring of global finance — remains dangerously slow. “The choice we make in Belém will define our future,” Adow said. “We’re entering COP30 at a time of deep political and geopolitical division. Wars, trade rivalries, and nationalist politics are undermining the trust between countries. The multilateral system that underpins global climate cooperation is under strain. Yet it remains the only vehicle capable of delivering collective climate action. We must resist, therefore, the fragmentation of climate processes into blocks and bilateral deals. The UNFCCC framework gives every country a voice, and climate change doesn’t respect borders, as we very well know.”