Can Nigeria’s political ‘godfather’ transform the country?

LAGOS, Nigeria — Nigeria’s kingmaker is now king. Months after telling the country “it is my turn,” Bola Tinubu, was announced as the winner of the country’s presidential election that’s fraught with allegations of voter intimidation and manipulation. The All Progressives Congress candidate has been credited with helping many politicians — including outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari — get into office. In last month’s election, the political “godfather” — known for the political influence he wields in Lagos — won 37.6% of the national vote, beating former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi whose third force movement had upended the political landscape. As the president-elect prepares for his installation later in May, some analysts say his presidency is set to usher in new investment for the country while others question whether it’s all talk. “Tinubu’s manifesto agenda is mere political speeches that did not bring anything new,” Adaora Osondu-Oti, a researcher at Central European University's Institute for Advanced Studies, said. “Nigerians need action, not words, that his predecessors have fed us with.” The Lagos legacy Tinubu, 70, whose age and frail health have been the source of some criticism, is credited with transforming Lagos. During his time as governor, the internally generated revenue of Lagos state rose from $3.77 million per month in 1999 to an average of $32 million per month in 2006, with revenue peaking at between $44 million and $52 million per month in March 2007. He has promised to do the same for Nigeria. “A Tinubu government shall deploy the same skills and expertise used in Lagos State to generate record levels of internally generated revenue, create wealth and attract investment,” he said in his manifesto. Nigeria is struggling to attract foreign investments due to a mix of insecurity and unstable electricity. The World Bank reported that annually Nigeria’s economy loses between 7 trillion to 10 trillion Nigerian naira, to erratic power supply, which represents 5% to 7% of the country’s gross domestic product. Local businesses now rely on gasoline generators. According to theWorld Bank report, over 22 million gasoline generators in Nigeria power about 26% of all households and 30% of micro, small, and medium enterprises, and their net capacity is eight times more than the national grid. Tinubu’s solution, according to his manifesto, is to build on Buhari’s Presidential Power Initiative, which aims to increase the country’s power supply from 5,000 megawatts to 25,000 megawatts by 2025. However, Ikemesit Effiong, head of research at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence — a geopolitical advisory firm — said that Nigeria has a different governing profile compared to Lagos, which is cosmopolitan, predominantly urban, highly wired, and interconnected. “Some of these things people ascribe to Bola Tinubu happened because Lagos happened to be the logical funnel and entry point for business as well as efficient mobilization at a time the Nigerian economy was booming,” he said. Over 47% of Nigerians live in rural areas and depend on agriculture. In his manifesto, Tinubu said he plans to reinvigorate the agricultural sector. But Seun Onigbinde, director of BudgIT, a civic organization leveraging technology for citizen engagement, said his manifesto makes a very bold statement that might not be feasible within a four-year period. “He plans to increase the cultivation percentage of arable land in Nigeria from 35% to 65% but that’s not the real issue. Nigeria has a poor yield percentage and the agricultural sector is still largely unmechanized,” he said. “I did not see strong points on seed science, large-scale mechanization and also using the private-led framework to grow the business end.” “I am more of a believer in the decentralization of agriculture to the subnational levels. The Federal Government has tried over the years and has failed to deliver,” he said. Stanley Achonu, the Nigeria country director at the ONE Campaign, added that the new government should develop and implement a bankable National Agricultural Investment Plan, align agriculture budget implementation cycles with food production cycles, and develop and disseminate new technologies in partnership with research organizations. Contentious fuel subsidies One of Tinubu’s main proposed policies is to phase out fuel subsidies which were introduced as a temporary measure to offset the oil price shock in 1973 and are currently used to keep fuel prices low and constant. Last year, the country spent 2.91 trillion naira on petrol subsidy between January and September 2022. Achonu said the subsidies not only take away the flexibility needed to develop other sectors and infrastructure in the country, but they are also a festering ground for corruption. Last year, local media reported that more than $10 billion was stolen in a fuel subsidy scam. Other experts say the subsidies benefit higher-income Nigerians who are more likely to have several vehicles, but their removal could push up the price of consumption goods. About 63% of the Nigerian population is multidimensionally poor and the International Monetary Fund has urged the country to remove the subsidies and channel the funds to targeted support for the poor. But earlier attempts to remove them have been met with resistance. In 2012, when former President Goodluck Jonathan removed the fuel subsidy, the public responded with mass protests, which forced the government to rescind the move. “Subsidy removal will certainly translate into an increase in prices of everything,” Osondu-Oti said. “In times of inflation, severe cash crunch as it is being witnessed today, rising poverty, unemployment, and post-pandemic crisis, adding fuel subsidy removal is tantamount to issuing a death sentence certificate.” Achonu said the new government should engage in extensive consultations with stakeholders and educate citizens on the benefits of removal and reinvest the subsidies in areas such as education and health care. The country’s underfunded health care was ranked one of the worst in the world, while 1 in every 5 of the world’s out-of-school children is in Nigeria. The new government should establish at least one world-class tertiary institution in each region, set clear standards for secondary education, set up a reward system for improving primary education, and expand health insurance coverage for vulnerable Nigerians, Achonu said. Osondu-Oti said the public uproar against the fuel subsidy is borne out of distrust for government officials, and many Nigerians do not trust the government to channel these funds effectively. Nigeria is among the 30 most corrupt countries in the world according to Transparency International. Projections show that corruption could cost the country up to 37% of its GDP by 2030 if it’s not dealt with. Tinubu is no stranger to corruption allegations. In 1993, the U.S. government accused Tinubu in a lawsuit of laundering proceeds from heroin trafficking in the state of Illinois. He subsequently forfeited the proceeds of $460,000 to the U.S. government. He has also been accused of forging his university certificates, but he denies any wrongdoing. Though Tinubu has made promises to fight corruption, experts remain critical. “I have looked at his anti-corruption agenda and it is very weak,” Onigbinde said. “I did not see strong points on punitive measures, fiscal transparency frameworks, or asset disclosure methods.”