NATO’s decision to increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035, including 1.5% for resilience and critical infrastructure, marks the most significant shift in military investment since the end of the Cold War. But the threats of today are not only kinetic — they are climatic. To build true security in the 21st century, NATO must also prepare for the threats that no army can deter: the floods, fires, droughts, and displacement driven by climate change.
Last year, climate shocks displaced more people than conflict. In Spain, soldiers were deployed after floods overwhelmed the streets of Valencia. In Canada and Texas, militaries were called to fight wildfires and support rescue operations. And across the Sahel, worsening droughts and vanishing livelihoods are creating new opportunities for malign groups to exploit instability.
This is the new front line of global security. It is not just about missiles or tanks — it is about whether our societies can withstand a rapidly changing planet.
About the author
Patrick Verkooijen
Professor Patrick V. Verkooijen is CEO of the Global Center on Adaptation, the foremost international organization dedicated to the challenge of adapting our world to the global climate emergency. He also serves as chancellor of the University of Nairobi and as the Ban Ki-moon chair on climate adaptation governance at the University of Groningen.
