COP 28 special edition: The summit crawls its way toward a hotly contested finish line

Another U.N. Climate Change Conference has come and is supposed to be gone, with today officially the final day of COP 28 in Dubai. But it appears to be far from finished, with talks now extended as negotiations reach boiling point. While COPs often feel like one big blur, each has its distinct personality — much like toddlers. Bear with me. Like toddlers, they’re a work in progress: COPs come up with initiatives that grow incrementally each year and need nurturing. And like toddlers, they make their presence known, even when there’s not much substance to the babbling. Nevertheless, we’re proud of their hard-fought achievements. Small steps are big deals. But like any worried parent or climate activist, we wonder if those achievements will be good enough. OK, enough childish analogies. Let’s get down to it. Will COP 28 achieve what it set out to do? That of course depends on your perspective. At the time of writing, the battle royale over fossil fuels seems to have dealt a blow to climate advocates who wanted a “phaseout” of the greenhouse gas-emitting pollutants. Even “phase down” seems to have lost out to the watered-down “reducing” fossil fuel consumption and production. Each word in such a delicate, consensus-driven negotiation is freighted with meaning. Negotiators are also still tussling over thorny issues such as the Global Stocktake and Global Goal on Adaptation texts, both of which critics say are underwhelming and lack specifics, ambition, and accountability. Whatever the outcomes, people had already judged this COP long before it began, given the polarizing decision to have the United Arab Emirates host it. Some viewed it as ironic that the COP 28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, heads the state-owned oil behemoth. Others saw it as a unique opportunity to bring fossil fuel companies into the fold. Regardless, the UAE pulled out all the stops to impress the over 84,000 people who descended on Dubai, whipping out pledge after pledge, declaration after declaration. Success will hinge on what actually comes of those pledges and declarations, but here’s a look at some of the notable figures behind COP 28: $800 million — the amount pledged to a loss and damage fund, considered a major coup for the UAE, which announced the breakthrough on the first day of the talks. 0.2% — an NGO’s estimate of how much those loss and damage pledges actually cover compared to an annual need of $400 billion a year. 130 so far — the number of countries that agreed to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. 49 — the number of oil and gas companies, including some of the world’s largest, that agreed to slash methane emissions by 2030. Methane is far more potent than carbon dioxide. 320 — the number of civil society groups that signed an open letter warning that methane cuts are not enough: “The only safe and effective way to ‘clean up’ fossil fuel pollution is to phase out fossil fuels.” 64% — the amount of revenue Azerbaijan’s economy gets from oil and gas. The petrostate will host the next COP, marking the third time in a row that an oil and gas producer will host the gathering. 134 — the total countries that endorsed a declaration to include food in their climate targets. The signatories represent 75% of all food-based greenhouse gas emissions. 123 — that’s how many countries signed a declaration on the connection between health and climate change, the first time health (and food) had dedicated days at COP. Over $777 million — the amount donors committed to control and eventually eliminate neglected tropical diseases. $3.5 billion — new money announced to replenish the Green Climate Fund. $30 billion — the size of the climate catalytic fund ALTÉRRA launched by the UAE. It seeks to mobilize an additional $250 billion globally. 4% — the percentage of greenhouse gas emissions emitted by Africa. 2% — the proportion of renewable energy investment going to Africa in 2023. 2,456 — the number of fossil fuel industry lobbyists at COP 28, up from 636 last year, according to the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition. Over 25 — the number of “earth tipping points” in a report funded by the Bezos Earth Fund. Several are close to being breached. Zero — my cynical estimate of the number of people who will be 100% satisfied with the final wording on fossil fuels. Related: The biggest philanthropy pledges at COP 28 What’s in a word? A lot The U.S. seems to be mincing words when it comes to the loss and damage fund, possibly to make it palatable to U.S. voters skeptical of anything remotely associated with “climate reparations.” Speaking in Dubai, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry repeatedly referred to a “fund for climate impact response,” rather than using the phrase “loss and damage” — even rewording questions from reporters to reflect the preferred phrasing, my colleague Michael Igoe reports. While it may seem trivial, climate advocates say words matter, especially because they say a lot about the fight to get high-emitting countries to pay for the climate harms for which they’re historically responsible. Read: What's in a name? US seeks to rebrand climate 'loss and damage' fund Climate + While loss and damage — or whatever you want to call it — grabbed headlines early in the conference, the pledge to triple renewable energy by 2030 was another major achievement. But although it sounds like a laudable goal, like so many other pledges, it comes with a host of caveats and uncertainties. Speaking at Devex’s Climate + event on the sidelines of COP 28, Andrew Herscowitz of ODI North America questioned where the manufacturing for tripling renewable energy will take place. “It's going to be taking place in the … G20 countries, right? They're the ones that have the market, they're the ones that have the scale, and they're the ones that are implementing the industrial policy so that they can produce solar panels,” he said. This would mean “The most vulnerable countries in the world aren’t necessarily able to participate in this massive new manufacturing boom,” he added — and the income gap between G20 countries and the world’s least developed economies will only widen. Also at Climate +, Jemimah Njuki, chief of economic empowerment at UN Women, pointed out that in the last 10 years, women’s representation in the COP negotiations has increased only marginally, from 30% to 35%. She also wondered how much of the loss and damage fund is going to those most affected. “We must ask … how much of that is going to women?” Read: The renewable energy transition advances at COP 28. Will it be inclusive? Read more: ‘Feminist climate justice’ calls for equal representation at COP 28 Related: 'These are not infinite resources': A conversation with Ibrahim Thiaw + Did you miss Climate +? Don’t worry — you can watch the whole event, and we have more coverage coming up. Surprisingly surprised “I am quite surprised with the constant and repeated attempts to undermine the work of the COP 28 presidency.” --— Sultan Al Jaber, COP 28 president and head of UAE national oil company ADNOC That was Al Jaber defending himself last week after causing an uproar over comments he made to former Irish President Mary Robinson. Why he was surprised is in and of itself surprising. The oil baron claimed “there is no science out there, or no scenario out there” that says phasing out fossil fuels will limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — going against almost every scientist on the planet. Al Jaber soon backtracked, saying he respects the science that to keep the world at 1.5 degrees Celsius, we need to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030. He also insisted that he’s been saying “over and over that the phase down and the phase-out of fossil fuel is inevitable” and “essential,” but the transition should be “orderly, fair, just and responsible.” Parting thoughts Devex Executive Editor Kate Warren was on the ground in Dubai and shared a few personal reflections: “As COP 28 concludes, I'm left with mixed feelings — inspiration mingled with frustration. Despite the accusations of hypocrisy, particularly against Dubai’s dystopian backdrop, COP remains a pivotal rallying cry for climate advocates from diverse corners of the globe to come together with a shared goal: to protect our planet. “It's a catalyst for action, a benchmark for progress, and sometimes, a reality check on the pace of change. The introduction of the loss and damage fund was a notable start, but the commitments fall short of the actual needs and might simply be a reshuffling of already pledged funds. Petty squabbles — one I witnessed was over which U.N. agency got to speak first at a ribbon-cutting ceremony — raise doubts about our collective ability to tackle major challenges. And with COP 29 set for Azerbaijan, another authoritarian fossil fuel haven, skepticism brews over the potential for real change next year.” Related: How climate leaders keep the hope alive (Pro) + Devex Pro members can get the most out of our COP 28 and climate change coverage. Not a Pro member yet? Start your 15-day free trial to unlock all our exclusive reporting and analysis. Sign up to Newswire for an inside look at the biggest stories in global development.