Could ancient grains hold answers to Britain's wheat crisis?

Record rainfall has drastically reduced wheat yields across the United Kingdom, after the wettest 18 months in England in recorded history. The deluge, which scientists have attributed largely to human-induced climate change, led to an estimated reduction in winter wheat yields of up to 26.5%, with other major European wheat producers such as France also seeing a drop. But for farmer John Letts, this has been one of the most productive growing seasons he has ever experienced. “The rain has just not affected them,” he said. With increasingly unpredictable weather patterns posing a threat to farmer profits and food security, Letts is part of a growing movement of U.K. farmers rejecting modern farming techniques and turning instead to the past for answers. Whereas modern cultivation typically involves monocropping of high-yield varieties and intensive use of fertilizers, Letts’ fields are full of what he terms “heritage grains” — varieties of wheat, rye, barley, and oats grown before the advent of modern breeding. “We're going into a state of increased variability. Anything that is adapted to a particular circumstance isn't going to offer us the resilience we need.” --— Josiah Meldrum, co-founder of Hodmedod’s and UK Grain Lab The heritage varieties he grows produce lower annual yields, but crucially, he said, the yields are consistent year over year, no matter the weather. That’s because unlike modern wheat, they have a huge range of genetic diversity, having naturally evolved to suit different local environments — giving farmers more options to cope with climate shocks. For example, different ancient varieties have different planting windows, so when it comes to unseasonal rainfall, farmers can wait until conditions are right before they sow. Heritage grains also don’t require chemical fertilizer, making them better for the environment. Modern varieties are highly dependent on chemical fertilizer, which contributes to an estimated 5% of greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, because low-input farming methods help to restore healthy soils which can store carbon dioxide, agriculture is “uniquely placed … to help slow and reverse climate change in a way that no other sectors are,” said Tom Lancaster, the land, food and farming lead at climate research nonprofit the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, or ECIU. The potential for increased climate resilience and reduced emissions has sparked interest in ancient grains globally — particularly in countries which stand to be worst affected by climate change. India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, has promoted ancient varieties and is working with international funders on breeding programs which incorporate ancient genetic traits. But a widespread shift away from genetically homogenous modern varieties has been limited by fears of reduced yields and profits, a lack of investment in research, and intellectual property laws that favor big agribusinesses, said Letts, whose nonprofit Heritage Grains Trust develops and promotes heritage grains through educational programs in the U.K. The problem with modern wheat The Green Revolution transformed agricultural productivity in the early 20th century with its emphasis on high-yield grains and intensive technological and chemical inputs. But it came at the cost of genetic diversity, with just a handful of European grain lineages used to create modern varieties. In an era of unpredictable weather patterns, that’s a problem. “Every plant is a clone — they all react in exactly the same way,” Letts said. This exacerbates the risk of widespread crop failure and global food insecurity. Wheat alone accounts for 20% of global calories — but yields could drop by up to 6% for every 1 degree Celsius of global temperature increase, researchers have warned. This year’s poor yields in the U.K. will reduce the country’s self-sufficiency by 8%, according to analysis from ECIU. This comes at a time when similar climate events across Europe are making importing more difficult and costly, and as global trade is hampered by conflict and increasingly protectionist policies. “We've been [growing wheat] for 10,000 years. And then in 100, we have the arrogance to think that oh, we can do much better,” Letts said. “And look at the impact.” The climate factor While it had long been suspected that beneficial traits in ancient grains were lost with the widespread adoption of modern breeding, the scale of that loss has only recently been uncovered. A decadelong study by scientists at the John Innes Centre, in collaboration with a team in China, recently sequenced the genomes of 827 ancient wheat populations, which were collected from all over the world by plant scientist Arthur Ernest Watkins in the early 20th century. To their surprise, the team discovered that modern wheat varieties contain just 40% of the genetic diversity found in the collection. The genome data — which is publicly available and open to use — could help farmers and plant breeders to create new varieties adapted to their local environment, by picking and choosing helpful traits. There is even genetic variation in the collection that could mitigate the impacts of heavy rainfall, said Simon Griffiths, one of the project leads. For example, a gene which extends the coleoptile — the sheaf which protects young shoot tips as they emerge from the soil — could allow farmers to sow seeds more deeply, making them less likely to be washed away. Other traits could help to reduce emissions — for example, by minimizing the release of nitrous oxide from fertilizer use. “We’ve been amazed. When we look for these traits, we find them,” Griffiths said. International organizations such as the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, or CIMMYT, are working in partnership with local governments around the world to incorporate lost genes from ancient wild wheat varieties into modern breeding programs. But investments have so far been insufficient, said Griffiths. “You need to invest in breeding programs which deliver these things,” he said. Planning for everything A wider range of genetic traits to choose from won’t help unless we also change the way we grow crops, said Josiah Meldrum, co-founder of Hodmedod’s, a company which works with local farmers to create markets for a wider consumption of grains and pulses. A monocultural field full of wheat which is adapted to heavy rainfall would still fail in a drought year, he pointed out. “We're going into a state of increased variability. Anything that is adapted to a particular circumstance isn't going to offer us the resilience we need,” Meldrum said. Farmers should instead take an evolutionary approach, with genetically diverse mixed populations within a field “that are adaptive, that can change as conditions change.” Letts has taken this concept to extremes, sowing all 827 wheat populations found in the Watkins collection into one field at his 1500-acre farm in Oxfordshire. “I said, well, I'd like every one of them, please,” he told Devex. “The more the merrier.” Letts’ interest in farming techniques of the past was sparked after a chance discovery in 1994, when a friend handed him a box of perfectly preserved wheat and rye taken from the roof of a 14th century thatched cottage. “It was just more diversity in cereals than I'd ever seen,” he said. He started growing maslins, a traditional method of farming where different cereals are sown in the same field to ensure that regardless of weather conditions, something will thrive and grow. “You've got this inbuilt resilience in terms of yield and yield stability, which is the key,” Letts explained. Creating a market Resilience to changing weather patterns is more and more of a concern for small-scale farmers in the U.K., said ECIU’s Lancaster, adding that the rainfall this year “really brought it home for farmers.” But the profitability of growing heritage varieties is currently limited by U.K. laws prohibiting the sale of unregistered seed varieties. (Similar legislation limits farmers in many countries in the global south.) “You can't get them registered because they're not genetically pure — but that's the whole point,” Letts said. “I don't want them to be genetically pure, because [genetic diversity] makes them adaptable.” The nonprofit UK Grain Lab, which Meldrum co-founded, is lobbying for legislative change. So far they have been granted secondary legislation for a seven-year trial period, allowing farmers to exchange seeds on a trust basis. “We need to have access to every tool available in order to try and address what's coming up,” said Meldrum. “And an old piece of legislation that stops that innovation happening is just not a good thing.” Ultimately, however, to create sustainable profits for farmers the solution needs to be “market-led, rather than led by public policy,” Lancaster said. Increasing consumer demand will involve cultivating two-way conversations between farmers and the people who eat what they grow, said Meldrum, to increase engagement with the way in which food is produced. “It's really, really important, right from the beginning, to talk directly to people that are eating food, to say, ‘Are you willing to eat differently? And what might a different diet look like?’” he said. Hodmedod’s currently has an annual turnover of just £2.5 million, according to Meldrum, but he believes that change is already happening in the U.K. The efforts of activists such as Letts are “pulling the Overton window across,” or shifting the norm for food policy and marketing, he said, pushing big businesses to think more radically about their commitments to food supplied by regenerative systems. “I hope that the discourse doesn't just get completely lost in one of food security,” he said, “Because it's a simplistic response to food security that got us into this mess in the first place.”