• News
    • Latest news
    • News search
    • Health
    • Finance
    • Food
    • Career news
    • Content series
    • Try Devex Pro
  • Jobs
    • Job search
    • Post a job
    • Employer search
    • CV Writing
    • Upcoming career events
    • Try Career Account
  • Funding
    • Funding search
    • Funding news
  • Talent
    • Candidate search
    • Devex Talent Solutions
  • Events
    • Upcoming and past events
    • Partner on an event
  • Post a job
  • About
      • About us
      • Membership
      • Newsletters
      • Advertising partnerships
      • Devex Talent Solutions
      • Contact us
Join DevexSign in
Join DevexSign in

News

  • Latest news
  • News search
  • Health
  • Finance
  • Food
  • Career news
  • Content series
  • Try Devex Pro

Jobs

  • Job search
  • Post a job
  • Employer search
  • CV Writing
  • Upcoming career events
  • Try Career Account

Funding

  • Funding search
  • Funding news

Talent

  • Candidate search
  • Devex Talent Solutions

Events

  • Upcoming and past events
  • Partner on an event
Post a job

About

  • About us
  • Membership
  • Newsletters
  • Advertising partnerships
  • Devex Talent Solutions
  • Contact us
  • My Devex
  • Update my profile % complete
  • Account & privacy settings
  • My saved jobs
  • Manage newsletters
  • Support
  • Sign out
Latest newsNews searchHealthFinanceFoodCareer newsContent seriesTry Devex Pro
    • News
    • COVID-19

    COVID-19 threatens decades of progress on global poverty, report says

    The economic fallout of the pandemic could lead to the first rise in global poverty since 1990, according to the researchers from the United Nations University.

    By William Worley // 09 April 2020
    Photo by: Riya Kumari from Pexels

    LONDON — The economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to create a “new era” of poverty, putting decades of progress at risk, research from the United Nations University suggests.

    In a worst-case scenario, more than half a billion people — almost 8% of the global population — could be pushed into poverty as a result of the pandemic, according to modeling by researchers at UNU’s World Institute for Development Economics Research.

    If realized, it would represent the first increase in global poverty since 1990 and have grave implications for achieving development objectives such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

    EU rejigs over €15M in existing aid for coronavirus response

    Brussels is changing its priorities to address COVID-19, but not the amount it gives to each country. Reactions from nonprofits and U.N. agencies are mixed, although many are urging more ambitious, fresh funding.

    “We’re in a whole new era,” said co-author of the working paper Andy Sumner, professor of international development at King’s College London, who is calling for an economic rescue package.

    Based on private market analysts’ predictions of a 5%, 10%, or 20% contraction in consumption or per capita household income in rich countries, the research modeled a range of possibilities. While it is not yet possible to say which will be closest to the final economic impact of the crisis, Sumner noted that the predictions of a 5% contraction were made about a month ago, and that 20% is now a more common prediction.

    If that happens, the researchers estimate it would push up to 580 million people into poverty — considerably higher than estimates of the potential poverty impact of COVID-19 from the International Labour Organization and the International Food Policy Research Institute — unless their governments and the international community intervene. In some regions, the researchers say it could result in poverty levels not seen for 30 years.

    “We were surprised at the sheer scale of the potential poverty tsunami that could follow COVID-19 in developing countries,” Sumner said.

    He added: “Our findings point towards the importance of a dramatic expansion of social safety nets in developing countries as soon as possible and, more broadly, much greater attention to the impact of COVID in developing countries and what the international community can do to help.”

    Sumner told Devex he feared the economic situation could be even worse than the scenarios they modeled, suggesting that if a lower-income country where few people can work at home enacted a three-month total lockdown, it could halt 25% of the year's economic activity. The team will keep a “watching brief” on the issue as new data becomes available.

    “There’s a lot of people who are above these various poverty lines who are not that far away from falling back under them … Poverty reduction … is actually more fragile than we realize,” Sumner added.

    The researchers stressed that the reaction of the international community was critical to preventing the worst economic effects. Oxfam has called on politicians to implement an “economic rescue plan” at the forthcoming World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and G-20 financial meetings.

    Kunal Sen, director at UNU-WIDER, said: “This study shows that the achievement of the 2030 Agenda, and in particular, the SDGs on no poverty and zero hunger, is under considerable threat. The need of the hour is to bring together development agencies, national governments, civil society and the private sector in a global effort to protect the livelihoods and lives of the poorest of the poor in the Global South.”  

    Visit our dedicated COVID-19 page for news, job opportunities, and funding insights.

    • Economic Development
    • Research
    • UNU-WIDER
    Printing articles to share with others is a breach of our terms and conditions and copyright policy. Please use the sharing options on the left side of the article. Devex Pro members may share up to 10 articles per month using the Pro share tool ( ).

    About the author

    • William Worley

      William Worley@willrworley

      Will Worley is the Climate Correspondent for Devex, covering the intersection of development and climate change. He previously worked as UK Correspondent, reporting on the FCDO and British aid policy during a time of seismic reforms. Will’s extensive reporting on the UK aid cuts saw him shortlisted for ‘Specialist Journalist of the Year’ in 2021 by the British Journalism Awards. He can be reached at william.worley@devex.com.

    Search for articles

    Related Stories

    Food SystemsAfter decades of progress, USAID cuts could blind the world to famine

    After decades of progress, USAID cuts could blind the world to famine

    78th World Health AssemblyA new model for funding global health takes shape

    A new model for funding global health takes shape

    Global healthFatigue and fog: Navigating Nigeria’s long COVID crisis

    Fatigue and fog: Navigating Nigeria’s long COVID crisis

    Devex CheckUpDevex CheckUp: USAID cuts threaten global health research

    Devex CheckUp: USAID cuts threaten global health research

    Most Read

    • 1
      How low-emissions livestock are transforming dairy farming in Africa
    • 2
      Opinion: Mobile credit, savings, and insurance can drive financial health
    • 3
      Opinion: India’s bold leadership in turning the tide for TB
    • 4
      How AI-powered citizen science can be a catalyst for the SDGs
    • 5
      WHO names new directors in ongoing restructure
    • News
    • Jobs
    • Funding
    • Talent
    • Events

    Devex is the media platform for the global development community.

    A social enterprise, we connect and inform over 1.3 million development, health, humanitarian, and sustainability professionals through news, business intelligence, and funding & career opportunities so you can do more good for more people. We invite you to join us.

    • About us
    • Membership
    • Newsletters
    • Advertising partnerships
    • Devex Talent Solutions
    • Post a job
    • Careers at Devex
    • Contact us
    © Copyright 2000 - 2025 Devex|User Agreement|Privacy Statement