EU readies fresh money for Ethiopia, but not yet its government

Debate is intensifying over when and how to revive the European Commission’s development agenda with Ethiopia, more than 18 months after Brussels froze funding to the government over the war in Tigray.

Despite the commission’s emphasis on the need for a “Team Europe” approach to development policy, differences within and between it and European Union member states have so far undercut efforts to pressure Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed over the conflict that has engulfed Africa’s second-most populous nation.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, said one of his “biggest frustrations” of 2021 was the bloc’s inability to “react properly to the large-scale human rights violations, mass rapes using sexual violence as a war arm, killings and concentration camps based on ethnic belonging.” Now the commission says there has been progress on the ground — citing a ceasefire, greater access for aid convoys, and an interministerial task force to address and prosecute human rights abuses — but not yet enough to resume normal relations. The question when it comes to EU unity over Ethiopia is: Will 2022 will be any different?

Aid as an incentive

For its part, the commission is preparing to approve €81.5 million ($84.2 million) next week, mostly for health and education in conflict-affected areas, including northern Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions. Direct budget support from the commission to Abiy’s administration remains on hold, with the latest money set to be implemented through NGOs, the United Nations, and EU countries’ development agencies.

The commission postponed budget support to the Ethiopian government — at the time one of the biggest recipients of EU development assistance — in December 2020 and has conditioned the resumption of support on full humanitarian access, cessation of hostilities, and the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from the country, and accountability for human rights violations.

A recent internal report by the heads of mission for EU countries in Ethiopia, which informed a discussion between EU foreign ministers on June 20, argued that the three conditions “have seen progress in relative terms, but not yet enough in absolute terms for a full normalization of the relationship.”

“Avenues for adequate support should be explored commensurate and in parallel with the improvements made by the [government of Ethiopia] to concretely show possible dividends for peace,” the report, seen by Devex, stated. “This could include a strategic gradual use of aid in order to incentivise the GoE to make further progress.”

Of the €81.5 million, program documents seen by Devex show that €39.5 million is foreseen for health care services and infrastructure, and €39.5 million for fixing schools damaged by the war, psychosocial support for traumatized children, and teacher training.

The money will come from the undisclosed amount set aside by the EU executive for Ethiopia for the 2021-2027 budgetary period. Tellingly, the remaining €2.5 million of the €81.5 million will go on procurement to study how to “better design and implement future EU development cooperation … and related visibility and communication activities in the country” — a sign that the commission is preparing to expand its engagement soon.

‘Further and sustained progress’

Prior to the resumption of budget support, Brussels and Addis Ababa must sign the commission’s multiannual indicative program, setting out priority topics and the — as yet unknown — provisional funding amounts for Ethiopia through to the 2024 midterm budgetary review. How the money is disbursed, including whether through budget support or other means, may be decided at a later date, though the signature of the MIP is symbolically significant as it reflects jointly agreed political priorities — in this case climate change, education, health, and migration, as well as governance and peace building.

The heads of mission report had recommended EU states release a common position on Ethiopia, including “a clause of rendez-vous by November 2022 — or earlier if the situation would require it — for EU and Member States to assess whether the political conditions are met for the adoption of the MIP and to envisage the resumption of EU budget support” this year. However, the commission is not going that far at the moment.

A commission programming document, seen by Devex and discussed with members of the European Parliament at a closed-door hearing on June 13, noted that “before resuming full cooperation, further and sustained progress on the ‘key asks’ is expected.” Until then, it said any new funding will go directly to beneficiaries rather than through the government and will not support “a war economy.”

Borrell told reporters after the June 20 meeting that the EU should be “cautious” and that “any move should be conditional and transactional” depending on improvements in humanitarian access, restoring basic services in Tigray, and lifting restrictions on fuel and fertilizers, as these are “the most pressing issues to save millions of people from death.”

In Ethiopia two weeks ago, EU humanitarian commissioner Janez Lenarčič welcomed the increase in aid convoys arriving in Tigray, though he criticized the ongoing “blockade of banking services, electricity and telecommunications,” which he said was hampering efforts to reach 5.2 million people in need of assistance.

Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, spoke with Abiy on Monday and stressed that recent efforts to improve humanitarian access in Tigray “should be increased and sustained, notably via alternative roads and restoration of basic services, notably telecommunications,” according to a readout.

An EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Devex on Thursday that Jutta Urpilainen, the commissioner responsible for development policy, has offered the Ethiopian government the prospect of signing the MIP in the coming months, should the commission’s conditions be met.

Land of hunger

For some observers, it is too soon to take a softer line with Addis Ababa.

Laetitia Bader, Horn of Africa director at Human Rights Watch, argued in a statement on June 17 that the aid allowed into Tigray is still insufficient, human rights monitors have limited access in the country, arbitrary detention is widespread, and “there has been no meaningful accountability for war crimes” in the Amhara, Tigray, and Afar regions.

The recent French documentary, “Tigray, the Land of Hunger,” was discussed in the UK House of Lords on Monday and retweeted by Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization, who wrote that Tigray — his home region — is facing “a man-made famine due to the siege by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces…”

By contrast, the Ethiopian Embassy in Brussels told Devex on June 16 that progress had been made on human rights, national dialogue, and humanitarian assistance.

“After the Government of Ethiopia took several confidence-building measures to resolve the conflict in the Tigray region through peaceful means, including declaring an indefinite humanitarian truce, the supply of humanitarian assistance continues to show progress,” an embassy spokesperson wrote by email. “The international community is encouraged to intensify its effort to meet the humanitarian needs in Ethiopia, including from the Tigray Regional State.”

Synchronizing Team Europe

Commission officials remain mindful of last year, in which Brussels’ attempted hard-line on Ethiopia was undermined by its own member states, some of which continued bilateral support.

In February this year, Abiy traveled to Brussels for an EU-AU summit, where he tweeted smiling photos of his embrace with French President Emmanuel Macron. 

Within two hours of that tweet, a French official texted reporters that Macron had recalled in the meeting the need for new humanitarian aid routes and inclusive political dialogue, while welcoming steps such as the release of prisoners and the lifting of the state of emergency.

In April, the commission tried unsuccessfully to lobby against a World Bank grant of $300 million to Ethiopia, saying it was “premature” and potentially “counterproductive” to the peace process in the country. In May, Urpilainen held a meeting with the bank’s executive directors from EU states, emphasizing the need for a Team Europe approach. In June, the World Bank, of which the commission is not a shareholder, approved a further $715 million in grants and loans for Ethiopia.

The EU institutions have also struggled to harmonize their positions internally. Multiple sources told Devex that the European External Action Service, led by the experienced Italian diplomat Stefano Sannino, took months to present only superficial options in reply to a request from Borrell, Urpilainen, and Lenarčič for advice on how to impose sanctions against Ethiopian officials last year. The EEAS declined to comment.