Food-insecure people in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala are more likely to make plans to migrate than those who have enough to eat, according to new research conducted by the World Food Programme and the Migration Policy Institute, and the Civic Data Design Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Among people experiencing severe hunger, 37% said they had plans to migrate, with 23% having made concrete preparations to do so. By comparison, only 18% of people experiencing little to no hunger said they intended to migrate, with just 7% having prepared for the journey.
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From 2019 to fall 2020, the percentage of total households reporting intentions to migrate rose from 8% to 15%. During a launch event Tuesday, WFP Executive Director David Beasley said 6.4 million people in the Northern Triangle are experiencing crisis levels of hunger or worse, according to the Integrated Phase Classification system that measures hunger levels.
The number of people in the Northern Triangle experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity has almost quadrupled from 2019, when 4.8 million people couldn’t get enough to eat, to 17.3 million by the fall of 2020.
“When you can’t feed your children, desperation will force you on the road in search of food and safety,” Beasley said. “At WFP, we’ve got solutions to address hunger. We just need the funds to implement them.”
The findings come at a time when the Northern Triangle is reeling from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit Latin America particularly hard. The region’s countries also have not recovered from two hurricanes that hit a year ago, destroying livelihoods and forcing even more people into hunger. These circumstances have contributed to a surge in migration, with the U.S. southern border experiencing the highest level of unauthorized crossings since at least 1960.
Thirty-two percent of people surveyed said they were not earning enough money to cover food expenses during the prior 30 days. Only 16% of respondents said they could live comfortably on their current income, while 35% said they didn’t earn enough to meet their basic needs.
“There is a direct link between irregular migration and food security, especially when food security is undermined by climate change, which can lead to the internal and external [displacement] of our most vulnerable populations,” Guatemalan Foreign Affairs Minister Pedro Brolo said during the event.
“Added to this, the pandemic led to the loss of life and has compromised the food distribution chain, as well as compromised the sustainability of our national food systems,” he continued. “This has shown more than ever the need to transform our systems to make them more sustainable, equitable, and resilient.”
Researchers conducted face-to-face interviews with nearly 5,000 households across 12 departments in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras between April and May 2021. That data was supplemented by responses to a web survey from 6,000 individuals. Departments were chosen based on the number of migrants reported as returning to them, as well as food security levels.
Participants were asked about their intentions to migrate, their living conditions, and the sociodemographic characteristics of other household members who had migrated.
Overall, only a fraction of the population of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala planned to migrate, with just 3% making concrete plans to do so. Most people cited economic conditions, including having insufficient funds to meet their daily needs, as their primary reason for migrating, while insecurity, violence, and natural disasters also contribute. Exact reasoning depended on respondents’ countries and departments.
Family ties were one of the main factors preventing people from migrating, and the likelihood of having a family member who had migrated over the past five years was similar across all income levels.
Biden administration releases plan to tackle 'root causes' of migration
The U.S. Agency for International Development will plan a central role in deterring migration from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
The report made several recommendations to address the drivers of irregular migration, including expanding social protection programs to help eliminate hunger and poverty, designing development initiatives to meet unique municipal-level conditions, and focusing on programs that reinforce positive community cohesion to encourage people to remain at home.
Beasley said WFP is developing a five-year plan to reach 8 million people in the Northern Triangle, up from its current 1.8 million people. He said the organization will provide programs for school meals, employment livelihood support, nutrition, asset creation, and cash transfers. This will cost nearly $1.7 billion.
“We’re talking about addressing root cause where families will not want to leave home. The benefits our programs will deliver in terms of lower malnutrition and food insecurity and higher employment and incomes will address the root causes of migration that we are so concerned about,” Beasley said. “They will repay the investment cost many times over.”
About the author
Teresa Welshtmawelsh
Teresa Welsh is a Senior Reporter at Devex. She has reported from more than 10 countries and is currently based in Washington, D.C. Her coverage focuses on Latin America; U.S. foreign assistance policy; fragile states; food systems and nutrition; and refugees and migration. Prior to joining Devex, Teresa worked at McClatchy's Washington Bureau and covered foreign affairs for U.S. News and World Report. She was a reporter in Colombia, where she previously lived teaching English. Teresa earned bachelor of arts degrees in journalism and Latin American studies from the University of Wisconsin.
