How much aid goes to fragile and conflict-affected states?
The International Monetary Fund estimates that around 1 billion people who need aid live in FCS. But do donors prioritize these territories over other ODA recipients?
Donors look at several factors when deciding how much aid goes to a recipient — from expected development and economic outcome to even geopolitical gains. Among these important considerations is the recipient’s vulnerability to natural and man-made catastrophes. Annually, the World Bank releases a list of states most susceptible to social, economic, and institutional fragility and violence based on “publicly available global indicators.” These are referred to as fragile and conflict-affected states, or FCS. Fragile states are defined by the World Bank as those that have “an extremely low level of institutional and governance capacity” — something considered crucial in promoting and maintaining growth and development. The most recent World Bank list classifies 19 states as falling into this category, up from 17 in 2022 — the last year for which funding data is available. On the other hand, conflict-affected states are identified based on the number of per capita deaths due to hostility. The World Bank classifies 20 states as falling into this category, down from 22 in 2022. According to the International Monetary Fund, around 1 billion people in FCS need assistance. If not addressed, FCS may account for 60% of “the global poor” by 2030. In this article, we looked into the disbursement data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, to see how much aid the Development Assistance Committee member countries allocated to FCS between 2018 and 2022, which among the recipients got the largest share, and what the priority areas were. We used the 2022 FCS list to match OECD’s most recent final data. Finally, in getting the ODA per capita, we used the recipient’s population as reported by the World Bank. All figures are in 2022 U.S. dollar constant prices. Trends in spending in the last five years In 2022, DAC member countries disbursed $177.1 billion of aid. Of this, $29.3 billion, or 16.6% of the total, went to the 39 FCS. Assistance to this group accounted for a significant portion of DAC’s total spending — an average of 22.4% in the five-year period. The highest proportion was in 2019 when FCS received 24.4% of the total ODA, worth $30.2 billion. The lowest rate was in 2022. The bulk of ODA went to conflict-affected states, worth $125.8 billion over the five years, or an average of $25.2 billion annually. On the other hand, fragile states received $26.9 billion in the same timeframe, or around $5.4 billion annually. ODA per capita Accounting for population, fragile states received six times more ODA per capita than conflict-affected states. The total ODA per capita to conflict-affected states fell by 5.7% over the five years — from $1,045 per capita in 2018 to $986 in 2022. ODA per capita to fragile states increased from $4,654 per capita in 2018 to a peak of $7,496 in 2020, dropping to $6,690 in 2022. Small island states Of the 39 FCS, eight fragile and one conflict-affected states are small island development states, or SIDS. As we mentioned in a previous analysis of ODA, SIDS tend to receive a bigger portion of aid despite their size and population since they are more susceptible to natural calamities. Among SIDS, the fragile states include Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Tuvalu. Together they received $6.2 billion from 2018 to 2022. Haiti, which received $2.6 billion in the same period, was the sole conflict-affected state among SIDS. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1714464247001' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Official Development Assistance to FAC from 2018 to 2022 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Of/OfficialDevelopmentAssistancetoFACfrom2018to2022/OfficialDevelopmentAssistancetoFACfrom2018to2022/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='path' value='views/OfficialDevelopmentAssistancetoFACfrom2018to2022/OfficialDevelopmentAssistancetoFACfrom2018to2022?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:sid=&:toolbar=no' /> <param name='toolbar' value='no' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Of/OfficialDevelopmentAssistancetoFACfrom2018to2022/OfficialDevelopmentAssistancetoFACfrom2018to2022/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showShareOptions' value='false' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1714464247001'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.maxWidth='710px';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px';vizElement.style.maxHeight='440px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.maxWidth='710px';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px';vizElement.style.maxHeight='440px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='700px';} var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script> <i style=font-style: georgia;”>ODA to FCS from 2018 to 2022, based on OECD.</i> Which countries received the largest share of aid? Afghanistan was the overall biggest recipient among FCS, with $15.2 billion over five years. Afghanistan’s aid grew by 7.2% between 2018 and 2022, peaking at $3.4 billion in 2021. Ethiopia ranked next, with $12.4 billion. Its ODA saw a steady rise, receiving $2.8 billion in 2022 — 22.9% more than in 2018. Syria was the third largest recipient, with $12 billion. Its aid amounted to $1.9 billion in 2022 — 27.3% less than what it received in 2018. Meanwhile, the Marshall Islands recorded the highest ODA per capita, averaging $2,140 in the five-year period. Tuvalu ranked next, with an average of $1,607. Then Micronesia, with an average ODA per capita of $1,017. Which countries received the least aid? Meanwhile, despite their high fragility and violence, other countries received less foreign aid than others. Among them is Eritrea — which ranked last both in cash terms and per capita ODA. Its total ODA was $79.2 million — or just an average of $4.5 per capita annually. The other countries in this category are Venezuela, with an average ODA per capita of $6.9, Nigeria, with $8.1, Azerbaijan, with $15, Guinea-Bissau, with $17, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with $17.1. Which sectors were prioritized? The emergency response sector received the largest financial support during the five-year period, worth $51.7 billion. Among the specific areas under emergency response, $20.4 billion went to emergency food assistance, $16.2 billion to material relief assistance and services, which includes water and medicine, and $15.1 billion to coordination and logistics. The top recipients for emergency response were Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan. The government and civil society sector also received significant assistance, worth $20.8 billion. Among the many activities under this category, peace building, conflict prevention, and resolution got the largest share, worth $4.7 billion. Then, public sector policy and administrative management, with $2.8 billion, and legal and judicial development, with $2.5 billion. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia were the top recipients of aid to the government and civil society sector. Education was also a priority, receiving a total of $11.2 billion between 2018 and 2022. Higher education was the priority among specific areas, receiving $3.7 billion. Primary education ranked next, with $3.2 billion; then vocational training, with $1.1 billion; and policy and administrative management, with $971.6 million. The top recipients of aid to education were Syria, Afghanistan, and Lebanon. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1714463379566' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Se/SectoralbreakdownofODAtoFACfrom2018to2022/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='SectoralbreakdownofODAtoFACfrom2018to2022/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='no' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Se/SectoralbreakdownofODAtoFACfrom2018to2022/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showShareOptions' value='false' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1714463379566'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.maxWidth='710px';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px';vizElement.style.maxHeight='440px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.maxWidth='710px';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px';vizElement.style.maxHeight='440px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='700px';} var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script> <i style=font-style: georgia;”>ODA to FCS by sector from 2018 to 2022, based on OECD.</i> Which donors spent the most on conflict-affected and fragile states? The United States remains the primary source of ODA among FCS, with a total of $56.6 billion in the five-year period, or 37% of the total aid to FCS. Its total aid disbursement to FCS steadily increased within the first four years — from $10.3 billion in 2018 to $13 billion in 2021 — before falling to $11.4 billion in 2022. The top recipients of U.S. aid were Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Nigeria. Germany followed, with $22.3 billion — 14.6% of the total. Its primary recipients include Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The United Kingdom is also among the lead funders to FAC, with $13.5 billion — 8.8% of the total. Its primary recipients in the period were similar to the U.S. Other top funders include Japan, with $9.9 billion; France, with $8.5 billion; and Canada, with $6.3 billion. Try out Devex Pro Funding today with a free five-day trial, and explore funding opportunities from over 850 sources in addition to our analysis and news content.
Donors look at several factors when deciding how much aid goes to a recipient — from expected development and economic outcome to even geopolitical gains.
Among these important considerations is the recipient’s vulnerability to natural and man-made catastrophes.
Annually, the World Bank releases a list of states most susceptible to social, economic, and institutional fragility and violence based on “publicly available global indicators.”
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Miguel Tamonan is a Senior Development Analyst at Devex, where he analyzes data from public and private donors to produce content and special reports for Pro and Pro Funding readers. He has a bachelor’s degree in Political Science with a Major in International Relations from the Polytechnic University of the Philippines.
