How much will donors spend on aid in the coming years?

In 2024, ODA fell by 9% for the first time in nearly a decade of sustained growth. Even before the drastic changes in the United States' aid policy this year, many Western donors had already seen cuts in their development funding over the last few years, driven by a shift in the political climate and their citizens’ waning support for internationalism. Now, it appears that aid is likely to fall, and keep on falling, at least for this year, and likely next year as well. For this year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, estimates that the total official development assistance from the Development Assistance Committee will likely decline by 9% to 17%, or up to $35 billion in monetary terms. This downtrend is expected to continue in 2026. Then in 2027, ODA would likely be at the same level as in 2020. But how exactly does this trickle down donor by donor? In this analysis, we looked into the 2025 and 2026 ODA projections from Donor Tracker, an initiative of SEEK Development that looks into the development spending and policies of several of the DAC member countries and the European Union. Top-level figures show a significant decline Donor Tracker only profiled 20 DAC donor countries, but these providers account for about 97% of DAC’s total aid spending between 2022 and 2024. Overall, Donor Tracker predicts the ODA of these 20 donors to be worth $167.1 billion in 2025. This is down $35.3 billion from 2024, and around the same ballpark figure OECD expects ODA to fall. ODA will likely go down further to $149.2 billion in 2026, according to Donor Tracker, which is $17.8 billion less than the forecasted total aid of the 20 donors in 2025. Who exactly is spending less on aid — and who’s spending more? Fourteen of the 20 DAC donor countries are likely to slash their aid by $36 billion this year, with the U.S. accounting for two-thirds of the total loss. The U.S. has always been the biggest donor among DAC members since the committee was formed. Between 2016 and 2023, the U.S. accounted for 26.2% of the DAC’s ODA, according to OECD final figures. This year, we expect U.S. aid to fall from $61.8 billion last year to just $38.4 billion. Despite the massive cuts, the U.S. will likely remain the world’s largest source of aid by the end of the year, as many other donors are reducing their aid. Roughly, the U.S. will still account for around 22% to 23% of the total ODA in 2025. However, its ODA is expected to go down further to $28.4 billion in 2026. Other leading donors will also see significant cuts, which again is a continuation of a trend we have already observed recently. Germany, the world’s second-largest bilateral donor, is expected to cut its ODA by $5.2 billion in 2025, from $31.4 billion to $26.2 billion. In a primer we published early this year, we noted that German aid was rising to 2022, both in monetary terms and relative to its economy. A reversal of this trend began in 2023, following a government-wide budget cut that heavily struck the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, or BMZ, and the German Federal Foreign Office, or AA — two of Germany’s leading aid agencies. Other donors with significant reductions include France, which is predicted to spend just $12.5 billion this year, down from $15 billion in 2024; Canada, from $7.3 billion to $5.9 billion; and the United Kingdom, which is cutting from $17 billion to $16.3 billion. Meanwhile, just six of the 20 donors are likely to increase their aid in 2025. They are: • Italy — from $6.5 billion to $7 billion • Sweden — from $4.9 billion to $5 billion • Ireland — from $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion • Luxembourg — from $579 million to $592 million • Norway — from $5.34 billion to $5.35 billion • Denmark — from $3.124 billion to $3.127 billion Will 2026 be any better? ODA is still expected to decline further in 2026, but unlike in 2025, only half of the 20 DAC donors profiled by Donor Tracker are expected to contribute to this trend. The other half are likely to increase their spending. Overall, 10 donors are likely to reduce their aid by a total of $18.3 billion, while the other 10 donors will see a cumulative increase of $496 million. The U.S. is forecasted to wipe off another $10 billion in 2026, which will put its aid at around $28.4 billion — a drop of a quarter compared to its expected aid in 2025, and less than half of its 2024 aid spending. The U.K. is also expected to make a more significant reduction in 2026. From $16.3 billion in 2025, U.K. aid would likely be worth $11.7 billion the following year, down $4.6 billion. Earlier this year, the U.K. government made a shocking announcement that it will reduce its ODA to just 0.3% of its gross national income by 2027 to prioritize defense. German aid will also go down further, from $26.2 billion in 2025 to $24.3 billion in 2026. The Netherlands will fall from $7 billion to $6.6 billion; Sweden, from $5 billion to $4.7 billion, and Italy, from $7 billion to $6.7 billion. Meanwhile, Spain is forecasted to provide $105 million more in aid in 2026 than the previous year, or from $4.1 billion in 2025 to $4.2 billion. Japan followed, from $17.5 billion to $17.6 billion. Then Canada, from $5.9 billion to $6 billion; Denmark, from $3.13 billion to $3.18 billion; and Ireland, from $2.48 billion to $2.53 billion.