How will a shifting US Congress shape foreign aid?

For months, the battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has demanded much of the country’s political spotlight. But just days away from the presidential election, there’s another race that might prove even more impactful for U.S. foreign aid: the U.S. Congress. “If Trump wins, he’s most likely to have a Republican Senate and a Democratic House of Representatives — that’s what the odds look like now,” said George Ingram, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. “The Republicans today, compared to 2016 and the four following years, are more inclined to do his bidding.” Less than a week after Ingram spoke with Devex, American political polls were suggesting Republicans could actually take control of both the Senate and the House, though the latter is projected at a razor-thin margin. With just days before the election, there is a lot we still don’t know — but according to Ingram, it’s those congressional seats that will really make the difference. “If [Trump] proposes cutting foreign aid by a third, there’s going to be some real efforts by the Republicans to try to see that through,” said Ingram, speaking at Devex World last week. “So, you’re more likely to get a cut in foreign aid of 10-15%, which would be the biggest cut we’ve seen in a long time.” Since Trump left the White House, foreign aid has taken center stage in a nearly unprecedented way. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza — and the spillovers of each one — have propelled aid money to the forefront, making the decisions of the world’s largest donor even more paramount. In the last year alone, there have been calls from some Republicans to slash funding for USAID entirely; in the conservative playbook Project 2025, former Trump aides called for eliminating programs focused on “abortion, climate extremism, gender radicalism, and interventions against perceived and systemic racism.” “The Senate has been more independent on these issues, and the House has tended to follow Trump’s lead,” Ingram said. “If you have a Democratic House, you won’t have [the same situation].” Still, Ingram caveated: Even during the Trump Administration, there were a number of “secondary foreign aid bills” that made positive waves, including the Global Fragility Act, which prioritized peacebuilding efforts through U.S. foreign assistance. “In this highly partisan era — and in the last three Congresses — there have been a number of secondary foreign aid bills that passed through the Congress,” Ingram added. “Nothing dramatic, but bills that kept the momentum going, of improving the way we do foreign aid. So, I wouldn’t be totally pessimistic.”