Indian farmers distress-sell cattle amid unprecedented fodder shortage

Sheshrao Jadhav spends his day walking around his dairy farm and worrying about the sustenance of both his family and cattle. In just the past year, he has had to sell over 120 cattle from his dairy farm, all because he could not afford to feed them anymore as fodder rates continued to increase exponentially. Left with 230 cattle on a farm that can house at least 500 animals, Jadhav is looking to sell a few more if the fodder shortage continues. His neighbors and fellow cattle owners are in the same tricky situation in Rahuri village of Ahmednagar district in the west Indian state of Maharashtra. India is grappling with a severe fodder shortage, a crisis largely attributed to the escalating impacts of climate change. Erratic weather patterns, including prolonged droughts and intense heat waves, have significantly reduced fodder production across the country. This scarcity has led to skyrocketing prices, with fodder costs nearly tripling in some regions over the past two years. The shortage is further exacerbated by shrinking cultivation areas due to urbanization and the diversion of land for commercial crops. As a result, many of India’s millions of dairy farmers are caught in a financial squeeze, forced to sell their cattle at distress rates, unable to bear the mounting costs of animal feed. This crisis threatens not only individual livelihoods but also India's position as the world’s largest milk producer, potentially disrupting both domestic and global dairy markets. With climate models predicting more extreme weather events in the coming years, the fodder shortage highlights the urgent need for sustainable agricultural practices and climate-resilient policies in the world’s most populous nation. “If I calculate the cost to the farm and total earnings, each liter of milk from a cow costs me 37 Indian rupees ($0.44) — including the fodder and labor cost. But I am able to sell this milk to the local milk collection center at only ₹27, thus losing 12 cents or ₹10 on each liter,” Jadhav said. With over 1,600 liters of milk collected from his farm each day, this adds up to a lot of money. Why is there a shortage? In response to a question in Parliament last month, India’s minister for fisheries, animal husbandry, and dairying, Rajiv Ranjan Singh, confirmed that the country is in deficit in animal fodder. In a country with over 500 million livestock, the shortage is as high as 11.24% — 32% and 23% for green and dry fodder, respectively. This acute shortage and exponential rise in the price of available fodder from $7 a quintal two years ago to $19 is forcing farmers like Jadhav to distress sell their cattle. Reasons for the fodder shortfall include the climate crisis and “shrinking of [the] area under cultivation due to urbanization, and diversion of land towards commercial crops, as well as the diversion of crop residues for other industrial uses,” according to the government. This issue is exacerbated by the increased demand for dairy products due to population growth. India’s milk industry experienced a volume growth of 11% caused by consumer demand over the last fiscal year. “Feed scarcity is the most important constraint in the dairy industry, and accounts for nearly half of all losses in Indian dairy production. An expected deficit of 65 percent of green fodder and 25 percent of dry fodder is expected for Indian livestock by 2025,” according to a study by the National Center for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research. The last livestock census in 2019 showed that India had the highest number of livestock globally at 535 million, and is the world’s largest producer of milk contributing 25% of global milk production. The Indian dairy industry is a $131.5 billion industry contributing to 5% of the country’s gross domestic product. However, the annual growth rate of milk production came down to 3.83% in the 2022-23 year despite an average growth rate of 5%-6% over the last decade. This led to a shortage in supply, increased rates for consumers, and lower rates for farmers. Studies suggest that any significant disruption in India’s dairy sector could impact international dairy prices and supply chains. If Indian farmers continue to distress sell their cattle and milk production declines further, it may lead to increased dairy imports by India and potentially higher global dairy prices. This situation could also create opportunities for major dairy exporting countries to fill the supply gap in the Indian market, reshaping global dairy trade patterns. However, the full extent of these global implications remains to be seen as the crisis unfolds. “It is a combined effect of a lot of things that’s causing this distress in the dairy industry. With the rise in demand for ethanol — for biofuel — and sugar, which is leading to land shrinkages, the rates of raw molasses, which is mixed with dry fodder for cattle, are increasing. Everything from electricity to rates of chemical fertilizer has gone up; coupled with heat waves leading to lower milk production thus forcing farmers to distress sell,” said Raju Shetti, a former member of Parliament, a dairy farmer, and founder of Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, a farmer’s organization. Shetti worries that if the situation turns dire, it may lead to an uptick in farmer suicides, which are already high in many parts of the country, especially in Maharashtra. “Dairy farmers are on their own mostly,” he said. He suggested integrating them into the Mahatma Gandhi NREGA scheme — the government’s program for guaranteed wage employment in rural areas — as banks often view dairy farming as too risky. Surmounting the challenges Erratic fodder supply in the summer, when there is acute drought in parts of the country, is one of the biggest culprits in creating a gap in the supply chain, adversely affecting the dairy farming industry. “The lack of systematic planning causes a temporary shortage in supply. The fodder shortage is also concentrated in particular regions during specific months, these seasonal and regional shortages cause a demand-supply imbalance,” said Vijay Kumar Yadav, director at the Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research. He said the country lacks proper regionwise planning, despite having plenty of land and good-quality seeds. “Fodder availability can vary greatly across different regions due to variations in climate, soil type, and agricultural practices,” Yadav said, stressing that climate change is fueling the shortage. Navigating his way through this shortage, Aseem Rawat, a Delhi-based urban farmer said inflation is causing a rise in input costs and the only way to sustain the industry is to increase the milk rates. Supplying “organic milk” to his customers, the former IT engineer sells a liter of milk at over $2 and ghee or clarified butter at $60 for a kilogram. “Everything is costly these days. Inflation has caused the rates to go up exponentially — from manure to transportation to labor and even storage,” he said. “With 1,000 cattle, of which only about 100 give milk at one time, there is no way that I can sustain my business without raising the price.” But while urban farmers with niche customers can afford to sell at higher rates, farmers like Jadhav are left with no choice but to rely on government rates at village collection centers. Experts believe that to overcome the fodder shortage the government should increase the land area for fodder cultivation, keeping in mind climate change impacts; and offer a systematic plan to overcome. A small number of farmers are also learning how to grow fodder using hydroponics — this should be encouraged. But for Jadhav help can’t come soon enough. He said he has been forced to supplement the money for his dairy farm with the income from his agricultural farm. But with an entire clan to feed — he lives in a joint family with his brother, who helps take care of the agricultural farm — this is unsustainable and he is thinking about throwing in the towel. “We grow sugarcane and cotton and use whatever money can be spared in the upkeep of the dairy farm, but how long can this continue,” he asked.