A country-by-country forecast showing the number of vaccine doses countries can expect to receive in the coming months from the COVAX Facility — the global initiative aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines — was released this week. The forecast includes data on doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine expected in the first quarter of this year and doses of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford expected in the first half of the year.
Devex maps out the projected vaccine allocations, including the type of vaccine each country will receive, and the percentage of its population the doses are expected to reach. Small island developing states such as Nauru, which has a population of about 10,800, appear to be at an advantage as a third of their population will be vaccinated as part of this initial vaccine rollout.
These initial doses are intended to reach 3.3% of the total population of the 145 facility participants that will receive doses within this batch. The aim is to target the most vulnerable populations, including health workers. The African continent, for example, expects to receive 90 million COVID-19 vaccine doses in February.
The Pfizer vaccine was only allocated to 18 countries because of challenges around its need for storage at ultra-cold temperatures, as well as a smaller supply available of this vaccine to the COVAX facility.
These figures are subject to change based on a variety of factors, such as funding, supply volumes, regulatory approval, and country readiness, but are intended to help countries prepare for their vaccine rollouts, giving them insight into which type of vaccine and how many to expect, said Ann Lindstrand, expanded program on immunization coordinator at the World Health Organization, during a press conference.
