NOAA cuts hamstring predictions of global south extreme weather

Recent funding cuts to the U.S. government agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, which keeps an eye on the world’s oceans and atmosphere, have begun to have an impact on the country’s ability to produce lifesaving weather forecasts, thus limiting the U.S. contribution to global climate reports. Experts said this will affect the quality of weather and climate data that is available to countries around the world, limiting the ability to predict extreme weather events and monitor fishing. This lack of information will particularly hit low- and middle-income countries, as they often do not have the expertise to collect and process such data. Hundreds of NOAA employees have been fired or forced into early retirement by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. In addition, the White House has confirmed that the government is seeking to cut NOAA’s budget for 2026 by at least 23%, or by $1.52 billion. That would do serious damage to NOAA’s research wing, according to Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist and public affairs specialist who was one of the employees fired by NOAA. “It decimates a huge aspect of what NOAA does, not only to advance the science on climate, but also weather and oceans, as well as the ability to help build resilience and adaptation across the country, and our interactions internationally,” Di Liberto told reporters during a press conference. Extreme weather events have become more commonplace and the United Nations is pushing individual countries to reduce their carbon emissions — also monitored and reported by NOAA annually. Budget documents from the White House are sparse on the details about which specific NOAA programs will be hit, but it has slashed funding to satellites that are deployed to monitor weather and climate data. Whether monitoring of sea level rise and carbon emissions data will be affected is unclear. Data drought NOAA is one of a handful of large organizations in the world that gather and store weather and climate data — and has the capacity to interpret it. NOAA’s observations are used as data sources by most global climate reports, as they cover large geographical areas that no one else is monitoring. Multiple data sources also help increase confidence in the reliability of climate reports. In April, when releasing the European State of Climate Report 2024, Florence Rabier, the director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, admitted that the number of weather observations available from NOAA had fallen since March. ECMWF is a part of the European Union’s Earth observation program, Copernicus. In March, the World Meteorological Organization asserted that cuts to NOAA had not affected its State of the Global Climate 2024 report. “What we've seen since March is that there has been a drop in the number of observations delivered by NOAA due to funding cuts. So, it's about 10% cut in the number of observations provided by the weather balloons,” Rabier said during a press conference last month For accurate predictions, data is needed from every part of the world, as any change in weather in one area can affect those in another, Rabier explained. If these data points are reduced, then it affects the accuracy and reliability of the overall analysis. Other data sources It is possible that some international groups will step up to record data no longer captured by NOAA, di Liberto said — but multiple experts Devex spoke to believe the data loss is going to worsen. “I would say that this is just the tip of the iceberg. When it comes to the observations lost, I would not expect it to get any better,” he said. Officials at the Asian Development Bank have been pushing countries to increase the collection of this data in the Asia and the Pacific region, as previously reported by Devex. But this is hard to do quickly given the required combination of funding and technical know-how. “The amount of investment that it takes to get these things up and going to begin with is kind of hard to replicate elsewhere,” di Liberto said. Left behind Jesse Young, former chief of staff at the Office of the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, told reporters during a press interaction that recent U.S. actions on climate and energy are eroding global trust. Apart from NOAA, the White House intends to cut funding to a host of programs focused on climate and energy. He added that countries are already responding by forming new partnerships rather than waiting for U.S. participation.. “I think it's fair to say that it's going to be a tremendous setback for the U.S. ability to project influence on climate and energy,” Young said. The impact of the defunding of NOAA is also going to be increasingly felt at home within the U.S. in the coming months, according to former NOAA employees, as the data also goes to emergency responders who respond to distress calls during natural disasters.