Opinion: Embrace disruptive solutions for a sustainable food system

I’m writing this from the COP 28 climate change summit in Dubai. Given that this is also my seventh annual COP, some might think I enjoy attending these annual summits. Actually, I hate them. For me, they encapsulate all that is wrong with our efforts to combat climate change: Tens of thousands of people flying in from around the world to talk about saving the planet; big words from leaders keen to show how much they care; but little in the way of real action. Despite three decades of COPs, we’ve been unable to keep global temperature rises below the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal, and I don’t think more of the same will deliver different results. So why am I still here? Well, COP 28 has been touted as the big moment for food systems transformation — an issue I’ve been working on for several years. The food system — a catchall term for the ways in which food is produced, processed, distributed, and consumed globally — is responsible for around one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Quite simply, we won’t solve climate change unless we transform it. I’m hopeful — but not optimistic — that COP 28 will be the catalyst. What I’m more optimistic about are the actions taking place around the world that are happening in spite of COP, not because of it. Over the past year, my colleagues and I have been searching for new breakthroughs that have the potential to constructively disrupt the food system. We’ve discovered teams of innovators and entrepreneurs all over the world working — often with little fanfare and limited funds — to respond to challenges such as unsustainable livestock management, the need for greener approaches to crop nutrition, and improved food waste management. Food system disruptions and innovations in 2024 Based on what we’ve seen, I believe 2024 is shaping up as follows: 1. Several new food system innovations will begin the journey to mainstream acceptance. We’ve been able to identify around 30 potentially game-changing innovations after screening hundreds. These are still in their infancy but, if scaled up, could play a role in solving the climate crisis. These aim to, for example, reduce the production of methane from livestock through specialized feed additives and reengineering their gut microbiomes, and protect and improve crop productivity by developing shade tolerance for some food plants and improving photosynthetic capacity for others. Some of these approaches are already reaching the stage where they can be ramped up. 2. We will continue moving toward a fertilizer transition. We know that hydrogen-based “green” ammonia developed as a crop fertilizer is a more sustainable alternative to synthetic fertilizer, the production of which requires large amounts of fossil fuels and is highly energy-intensive and polluting. We are seeing green ammonia move from the concept phase to several concrete projects around the world. If the momentum continues, we could be on the cusp of a much-needed fertilizer transition. We’re also seeing advances in the development of microbial fertilizers and pesticides that use formulations of microbe strains to help plants get adequate nutrition and protect them against pests and diseases. I expect work in this area to continue to grow and attract attention in 2024. 3. Subtle but important changes will continue to shift the food system status quo. In recent years, new players with new ideas have started entering this space, including new philanthropic organizations that are making bold investments in innovation and forming new partnerships. The arrival and influence of new food system players means the status quo is changing. I believe this can exert a positive influence on our direction of travel in 2024 and breathe new life into transforming the food system. 4. There will, undoubtedly, be more uncomfortable conversations. Food systems are deeply political, and that’s no surprise: They provide billions of jobs, trillions of dollars in revenue, and — well — the food we all need to survive. But if we really do want a sustainable future, we need to talk openly about the really sensitive issues. These include, for example, our diets and their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions; the role of agricultural subsidies and how they can incentivize unsustainable practices; and even, perhaps, whether summits like COP can really deliver what the world needs. What this all means for me is that in 2024 I plan to be annoyingly disruptive. Wherever possible, I’m going to point out the various flaws in the current food system and the global mechanisms for improving it. At the same time, I’m going to do my best to be boldly constructive in helping develop workable solutions. I’d love it if you could join me.