Opinion: What’s in store in 2025 to solve Africa’s energy challenge

As the United States prepares for a new administration, a critical global development challenge remains: Solving Africa’s energy poverty. This isn’t just about switching on lights. It’s about unlocking opportunities for business, education, health care, and security. With 600 million people in Africa — nearly half the continent — still lacking access to electricity, innovative initiatives such as Mission 300 and ambitious projects such as the Grand Inga Dam offer pathways over the coming years to connect millions to power, drive economic opportunity, and accelerate a clean energy transition on the continent. Still, there are genuine questions about how to connect those 600 million people, including the technologies that should be deployed. Gas will likely play a role in the coming years to increase energy security and may even help accelerate the decommissioning of higher-emitting coal power plants. These are some pivotal areas to watch in 2025, which I’ve assessed for their likelihood and potential impact, along with key developments to monitor and potential climate benefits. Mission 300: A bold vision for Africa Likelihood ***** Impact ***** Explanation: The recently launched World Bank/African Development Bank Mission 300 initiative aims to leverage public resources to provide small businesses with sufficient levels of electricity to help Africa’s rapidly growing population escape poverty. With a plan to provide 300 million Africans with electricity by 2030, Mission 300 has brought together philanthropies and multilateral development banks, already connecting 12 million people. What to watch: Connecting 300 million people requires doubling the current pace of electrification, but there is a pipeline of projects that can deliver on this promise. Climate benefit: New energy access must outpace Africa’s population growth, otherwise, the continent is on the path toward an environmental and economic catastrophe. Nigeria currently generates 10 times the amount of electricity from diesel generators than it does from its grid. If people continue to burn charcoal and wood for cooking, kerosene for lighting, and diesel to power businesses, there will be neither an energy transition nor job growth. Small modular nuclear reactors: A new frontier? Likelihood ***** Impact** Explanation: There will be a renewed push for small modular nuclear reactors, or SMR investments, particularly in Eastern Europe to counter Russia. The immediate impact would be limited as SMRs remain too costly for most African countries that have not yet scaled other forms of energy. What to watch: Will the U.S. influence MDBs to change their policies and build the internal capacity to consider nuclear investments, even in Africa? Climate benefit: Nuclear power provides baseload renewable energy, displacing coal and other fossil fuels, and allowing countries to increase the amount of intermittent solar and wind power they can deploy to accelerate the energy transition. Power Africa: A model for partnerships Likelihood ***** Impact ***** Explanation: The U.S. government’s Power Africa initiative has continued under three administrations. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation — launched under the first Trump administration — established a target for bringing electricity access to 10 million people by 2025. The Trump administration liked the Power Africa model of mobilizing private investment for energy so much that they chose to extend the model to other sectors, launching Prosper Africa, to double trade between the U.S. and Africa across all sectors. What to watch: Will the U.S. government support — and funding — for Power Africa and Prosper Africa increase, responding to private sector demand for these initiatives? Climate benefit: As the U.S. brings down the cost curve of new green technologies — e.g., batteries and electric vehicles — African countries will benefit. Power Africa and Prosper Africa offer U.S. companies a market to increase sales of their green products in Africa. The Grand Inga Dam: Africa’s energy ‘battery’ Likelihood * Impact ***** Explanation: The Grand Inga Dam project in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been called the crown jewel of Africa’s development. If completed, it could generate twice the power of the world’s largest hydroelectric facilities. But for decades, progress has been slow, hampered by political instability, environmental concerns, and the sheer scale of investment required. Despite these challenges, the Inga Dam remains a beacon of hope. Who will take up the mantle for the biggest development initiative in a generation? What to watch: Can global stakeholders come together to address financing and governance challenges? The project also requires extensive transmission infrastructure to distribute power effectively, making it a test of international cooperation. Climate benefit: The Inga Dam would offer an unprecedented amount of baseload renewable energy for the African continent, serving as the continent’s “battery.” Countries receiving power from the project would be able to scale and deploy intermittent solar and wind power, accelerating the energy transition. It also could produce large amounts of hydrogen and could power massive Africa-based data centers or even crypto mining. Final thoughts Future global prosperity relies heavily on the prosperity of Africa’s unelectrified population. By embracing innovative policies, strategic investments, and bold partnerships, it’s possible to connect 300 million people by 2030 and the rest soon after. By leveraging new and existing initiatives, the world can transform lives, drive economic growth, and accelerate the global transition to clean energy.