Opinion: Why Africa’s aviation potential is good for development

As Africa emerges as the next frontier for economic growth, its aviation sector holds transformative potential. The African Continental Free Trade Area, or AfCFTA, creates a vast unified market of 1.5 billion people, offering an unprecedented opportunity to redefine African air transport. However, despite accounting for 18% of the global population, Africa contributes less than 3% to global aviation demand, highlighting divergence between its potential and opportunities enabled by air transport. To bridge this, African nations must address both sectors’ structural dynamics through policies that promote economic inclusivity and connectivity. Air transport is a public good essential for trade, regional cooperation, and development. Air transport is a catalyst for economic growth Aviation is pivotal for accelerating Africa’s economic development, including the full realization of AfCFTA. Over the next 20 years, the International Air Transport Association projects that demand for air transport in Africa will triple, presenting a substantial growth opportunity for the continent’s aviation sector. Sustained growth will depend on addressing infrastructure challenges, market liberalization, and high operational costs, including user charges that are 8% above global average. By alleviating barriers to goods and services, AfCFTA can enhance trade and reduce costs. Airlines can optimize routes and expand networks, catering to demand for both passenger and cargo services. Increased air transport can stimulate business, tourism, and diaspora engagement, ultimately fostering inclusivity and reducing inequity. The Single African Air Transport Market, or SAATM, an African Union initiative complementing AfCFTA, seeks to liberalize air transport and boost regional connectivity. This aligns with AfCFTA’s development priorities, such as increasing intra-African trade by 50% by 2030. Together, SAATM and AfCFTA have the potential to contribute to catalyzing Africa's economy by boosting trade, tourism, and investment, while fostering regional integration. AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene emphasized the need to lower tariffs on agricultural products to boost intra-African trade. Significant efforts are underway across the air transport industry and multilateral institutions to improve safety, reform, sustainability, and financing. Challenges and opportunities in air transport infrastructure Africa’s air transport infrastructure has structural growth intricacies, including limited regional connectivity, appropriately scaled terminal capacity, and prohibitive costs. Addressing this requires over $32 billion in investments by 2040. Air travel is essential for connecting regions with limited road and rail infrastructure, particularly in remote areas, enabling access to opportunities and services. Enhanced air connectivity and infrastructure developments streamline the movement of goods, facilitate regional commerce, and serve as platforms for innovation in health care, education, and tourism, ultimately contributing to resilience and prosperity. Sustainability cannot be overlooked — investments in sustainable aviation fuel value chains and energy-efficient technologies, including renewable energy solutions for airport infrastructure, reduce aviation’s environmental footprint and drive innovation and economic opportunities. Strategic partnerships for growth Africa’s air transport is recovering, with seat capacity exceeding pre-pandemic levels, though 2023 passenger demand remains at around 90%. Partnerships such as Ethiopian Airlines’ equity investments across Africa — notably with ASKY — and Qatar Airways’ 60% stake in Rwanda’s Bugesera airport and pending RwandAir deal highlight strategic efforts to enhance connectivity. Qatar Airways’ recent 25% stake in Airlink (South Africa) aims to strengthen regional networks, though its impact remains to be seen. Air Peace’s 70% stake in Antigua and Barbuda’s LIAT 2020 expands its scope from Nigeria to the Caribbean. Airlines in African small island developing states, such as Air Seychelles, Cabo Verde Airlines, and Air Mauritius, continue providing critical connectivity, supporting economic resilience and development for their nations despite weathering headwinds from evolving equity partnerships and business dynamics. These partnerships highlight the range of air transport’s role in development, expanding opportunities integrating aviation into economic programs, including improving market access for smallholder farmers and entrepreneurs across regional and international markets. Engaging the African diaspora Although a global industry, air transport in Africa thrives on the expertise of those on the continent and in the diaspora, generating $75 billion annually and supporting 8.1 million jobs. Diaspora professionals and communities play a key role in cultivating connectivity. Targeted initiatives across the industry and other sectors, spanning entrepreneurial and legacy facets, are crucial to sustaining this collaboration. Programs like IATA’s Focus Africa drive transformation by enhancing the sector’s contribution to Africa’s economic and social development through improved connectivity, safety, and reliability for passengers. Recommendations for a connected future In building the “Africa we want” of Agenda 2063, three actionable recommendations stand out: 1. Investing in infrastructure capacity building: Duly managed public-private partnerships such as airport concessions, supported by strong regulations and stakeholder collaboration, provide a proven way to sustainably generate the need for $32 billion for airport and air traffic management developments in Africa by 2040. 2. Enhancing regional cooperation: Fast-tracking policy complementarity, visa liberalization, and private-sector participation can boost intra-African connectivity and trade. 3. Driving innovation: Responsible integration of artificial intelligence and continued investment in technology can identify new ways of access, optimize safety, efficiencies, and competitiveness. Africa’s aviation sector is at an inflection phase. Both AfCFTA and SAATM provide unprecedented opportunities to redefine connectivity, yet they are not panaceas. Addressing structural growth challenges through targeted cooperation and strategic investments is crucial for the transformative development of the sector.