Population hits 8 billion, but UNFPA sees bigger things to worry about

As the global population hit 8 billion, the United Nations Population Fund, or UNFPA, was careful not to sound alarmist about the big number. In fact, by some measures, that number is not as big — or as bad — as some had long predicted.

For Rachel Snow, the chief of the population and development branch at UNFPA, there are other problems more worrying than how many people inhabit the planet. COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and climate change are sobering reminders that hard-fought gains in development can easily be upended.

But a seismic shift in demographics has also created a complicated global dynamic. On the one hand, youth populations are set to explode in lower-income countries, testing already fragile economies.

On the other hand, the economies of wealthier countries will also be tested, not by too many young people but by too few because of low fertility rates.

Migration could be the answer for both sides.

“In fact, there's a whole set of tools in the toolbox,” Snow said. “One of those tools is indeed, perhaps to be more open to migration.” Partnerships between countries can rebalance the world, and while every government is worried about their own individual concerns, being open to the idea of more migration will be one of the ways to mitigate anxiety, she said.

Snow spoke to Devex on the sidelines of the International Conference for Family Planning in Pattaya, Thailand, this week.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

How can we put the milestone of reaching 8 billion as a global population in the context of the challenges the world is facing today?

Well, first of all, I do think it's a celebration. It is absolutely a milestone for development, and for incredible improvements in public health and longevity. So that's a huge plus. Second, world population growth is slowing down in a big way, and that's important to recognize. We peaked in terms of the annual global growth in population in 1964 when we were growing at 2.2% per year and now we're growing below 1%. So while it took us 10 or 12 years to get from 7 to 8 billion, and if it took 14 years to get to the next billion, then it will take closer to 20 years to get to 10 billion.

So that just gives you a sense of that declining pace of growth. And I think while that's important for people to appreciate — because I think it produces this sense that we will just continue growing at such an extraordinary pace, and perhaps be overwhelmed — that isn't the case.

I'm old enough to remember earlier [milestones of] billions when there was lots of doom and gloom and anxiety. And part of what's heartening about this is the sense that the capacity of human beings to manage this growth is incredible. We're doing very well in terms of innovation, in terms of … expanding education, etc.

That said, this is a rough time. There's no question about it. And I think particularly many of the gains that we had made in human health and longevity are certainly likely to be undercut by COVID-19. So what we've seen in terms of COVID-19 I think is more something to be concerned about than in terms of just the pace of population growth.

And the other, of course, is climate change. And how we've also seen the war in Ukraine alone disrupt food supplies, so we have things to be worried about without any question. I don't think the pace of population growth, however, is, in some respects, close to the anxieties that should be caused by these other problems.

Climate change is also impacting different places in different ways. What does climate anxiety mean for vulnerable populations who are of reproductive age?

Well, if you look at the per capita emissions from the developed world, you know, from the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia — the numbers are incredible. We are responsible for global emissions. It is not the woman living in Niger who's having four or five children, perhaps more than she wishes to have, who is measurably contributing to emissions. But indeed, it is the Sahel that is dealing with desertification. And it is the poor parts of the world that indeed will suffer enormously in light of what's happening.

So as you know, at the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference, the conversation is to have some kind of compensatory funds. We'll see what emerges from that. But I think that's an overdue conversation. It doesn't worry me if the woman in Niger chooses still to have three, four, or five children. It’s going to be a long time before those individuals are going to come close to contributing to the emissions at the scale we have here in the developed world.

What are some of the new challenges that the world will have to face as the pace of population growth slows down?

A hallmark of the 8 billion, and I think it's important to unpack it, is the diversity — the demographic diversity we're seeing across the world today. So while we have eight countries that are going to be responsible for half of all population growth between now and 2050, at the same time, more than 60% of the global population is living in a country that is experiencing below-replacement fertility, where the total fertility rate is now currently below 2.1 children per woman. That's part of what is encouraging as there are diverse trends happening, and it's also challenging.

I think it adds to this issue of identification with one another's circumstances. I think it affects our ability to empathize with how different governments are experiencing their own demographic trends and anticipating their demographic future.

We just came from the Seoul global symposium last week, where there was a gathering of governments that are largely concerned with low fertility and population aging. And that was very important to listen closely to [them]. They want to know: Can we thrive? Will there be prosperity, when we have a smaller population than today? And in general, the projections are that yes, you can.

I think that it's critical that we open up the conversation and do everything we can to encourage governments to be a bit more open to that potential [of people moving], because we'll probably see more migration in light of climate change, probably see the need for more movements of people to find places that are habitable. I mean, the number of the world's population that is living in low-elevation coastal zones right now is huge — 800 million people. So if things continue to rise, there's gonna have to be some degree of openness to tolerate a certain movement of people.

And how does UNFPA’s role change with this global transition?

I think one role the U.N. can play, and UNFPA in particular, is the convening of these high-level opportunities for ministers and parliamentarians to hear from other countries that are demographically diverse. Somebody coined the phrase, ‘We should be cultivating demographic diplomacy,’ which I had not heard of and I thought it was a wonderful term. [It means] providing a diplomatic opportunity for governments that are now newly aging, for example, to hear from those like Korea, Japan, etc., that are already adept at undertaking really significant adaptations to enable productivity in an aging [society], assuring that older people are part of the community in meaningful ways. So I think that kind of diplomacy where there's much more sharing is something UNFPA can continue encouraging and increasingly perhaps play a role in.