The renewable energy transition advances at COP 28. Will it be inclusive?

One of the headline goals at this year’s United Nations climate talks, known as COP 28, in Dubai, is the ambitious plan to triple renewable energy by 2030. In the first days of the conference, 118 governments joined the pledge — a total that’s now risen to 130 — as a path to cutting fossil fuels’ share in global energy production. Now one of the challenges facing the development community will be to make sure this target is met in an equitable way. Speaking at Devex’s Climate + event, on the sidelines of COP 28, Sarah Jane Ahmed, adviser to the Vulnerable Group of 20 Finance Ministers of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, said she thinks the tripling renewable energy target matches with development prospects, “meaning job opportunities” as well as reducing “inflationary pressure.” But to ensure the transition is both more inclusive and a driver of growth, she said, those manufacturing the relevant renewable energy components or grid components could diversify in low- and middle-income countries emerging from the long economic shadow of the pandemic and already grappling with global warming. “We're on track to breach 1.5 [degrees Celsius] by 2030. And so with that we will need more resilient grids, job opportunities, and we will also need to match the energy transition with food security opportunities,” she told the audience. Andrew Herscowitz, executive director of ODI North America, voiced concern about where manufacturing for the tripling of renewable energy will take place, and which countries will be left out. “It's going to be taking place in the … G20 countries, right? They're the ones that have the market, they're the ones that have the scale, and they're the ones that are implementing the industrial policy so that they can produce solar panels, they can produce batteries,” he said. This would mean “the most vulnerable countries in the world aren’t necessarily able to participate in this massive new manufacturing boom,” he added, and there would be an increase in the income gap between G20 countries and the world’s lowest-income countries. Many of the raw materials needed for the renewable energy transition to happen — for solar, wind, and hydro power — are derived from Indigenous peoples’ land or from climate-vulnerable countries, noted Devex Senior Reporter Michael Igoe. Yet the benefits accrue elsewhere, in an extractive approach that has long prevailed. Nonette Royo, executive director of The Tenure Facility, explained that in order to get past that, partnership is crucial — “and that means real inclusion,” she said. The idea is for Indigenous people to participate in setting targets, “because it’s their territory that’s at stake,” she added. “We have to basically look at the land use and talk to the people who will be involved in that land-use plan. And then do exactly what is required, respect the process, and consult and talk to those individuals that can provide input and their traditional knowledge,” she said. The question of how to finance the clean energy transition is also a big priority. Africa currently only attracts 2% of global renewable energy investment, which experts from the International Energy Agency have said will need to double by 2030 to deliver on global goals on energy access and renewable energy uptake. But there are several obstacles preventing more renewable investment to the countries that have been left out of that picture so far: political will, capacity, and currency, according to Herscowitz. “One of the things I've been pushing for is that we really rethink development finance architecture in the poorest countries in the world, and we do some local currency financing,” he said. Ahmed agreed. “People are facing higher costs of electricity because they're absorbing … currency fluctuation,” she said, adding that the local currency financing element is really critical. Other challenges she highlighted include the time it takes to get permits for renewable energy projects — “In the Philippines, around 180 permits for renewable energy, and 40 for fossil fuel” — and lack of access to modernized electrical grids. “We need to change the financial system to be more long-term, and financing and also local currency, and at the same time the permitting process. The way we can get renewables into the system has to improve so that all the entrepreneurs in our countries can participate,” Ahmed said, adding that this includes Indigenous people who could, in theory, own, maintain, and operate plants. “It's not rocket science. I remember I put together a solar contraption when I was 16, so it's not difficult. It's possible,” she said. “I think we just need to seriously reconsider who can participate in this transition. It's not just gonna be international corporates. There's a lot of domestic corporates [that could] participate, and people, communities who could be part of this.” While the COP process provides a space for those communities previously left out of the renewable revolution to help set targets and the trajectories, what's missing is a discussion around wealth and development, said Ahmed, adding that the conversation has been more focused on emissions. It’s important for low- and middle-income countries to stick to the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, she said, but “we can actually reach a sharper cut down in emissions by maximizing development, and how we do that is maximizing renewable energy wealth.” Ahmed noted that Saint Kitts have found almost a gigawatt of geothermal opportunities, and she suspects the renewable energy wealth opportunities are “far greater in developing countries than we think.”