Climate change is likely to contribute to mass atrocity crimes, according to a new report from the United Kingdom’s Parliament, which called for the British government to link atrocity prevention with its climate work.
The report by the International Development Committee said the U.K. government was well positioned to prevent and respond to atrocities, and urged the adoption of a strategy. Calls for an atrocity prevention strategy have been gaining cross-party momentum amid suspected war crimes in Ukraine.
“Climate change and its impacts are clearly a driver of identity-based violence and mass atrocity crimes,” said Sarah Champion, a member of the U.K. Parliament and the IDC chair. “As resources become more scarce, and access to support more fraught, it is likely that hostilities and rivalries will bubble up.”
“You don’t need to be an expert in mass atrocity prediction or prevention to see that as the impacts of climate change deepen, identity-based violence and mass atrocities will rise. Left unchecked, this threat nexus will drive global instability and human suffering on a terrifying scale,” said Kate Ferguson, co-executive director at Protection Approaches, a human rights NGO, and an independent specialist advisor to the IDC’s inquiry.
Climate change is seen by experts as a “threat multiplier” which can worsen and complicate existing tensions, as well as causing new shocks.
And like climate change, the IDC report found that, without preventative action, “mass atrocities are likely to become more common, which will constrain global development.”
Similarly, while international action on climate change at negotiations like the Conference of Parties is stymied by disagreements and tensions between countries, the IDC expressed concerns about United National Security Council action on mass atrocity crimes being hamstrung by members who have a veto.
“We received evidence and learnt during the inquiry that if the climate emergence is left unchecked, we can expect to see these appalling crimes becoming more common,” said Champion.
She added: “It is essential that the government’s emerging commitment to atrocity prevention is joined up with its commitments to climate change. Any national strategy on mass atrocity prevention must take account of — and be capable of monitoring, analysing and responding to — new threats and challenges, specifically climate change.”
Other factors contributing to the growing risk of mass atrocity crimes include online hate speech, the growth of non-state actors in conflict, and the weakening of democracy and institutions.
The Sahel region of Africa is thought to be at particular risk — and the region is one of the world’s most vulnerable to climate change, experiencing severe drought, desertification, and soil loss. The report cited evidence from Fred Carver, former head of policy at the United Nations Association-UK, or UNA-UK, who told members of Parliament young people in the region “with less to lose and less to farm see fewer reasons not to take up arms.”
Champion said the U.K. was “uniquely placed to be the ‘world’s canary’” for alerting the world to atrocities.
She said: “We have a network of embassies and a strong reputation for acting within the rule of law. We should train and support our Ambassadors to spot the danger signs that could lead to atrocities. That means looking out for hate speech or laws that marginalize or segregate certain groups from society. We can and must focus the international community’s attention to de-escalate these situations.”
Ferguson said the U.K. government was serious about atrocities and said “an understanding of how climate change, its consequences — and at times how we respond to those challenges — can propel violence, must be brought in.”
She added: “Any national strategy of atrocity prevention adopted by the UK government must bake in from the very beginning this fact, and support far more effective working across the different parts of government committed to preventing mass atrocities and climate collapse.”
The report called for higher political attention to be given to considering the risk of atrocities through the newly created Foreign Policy and Security Council, for allocation of appropriate funds and staff to a new atrocity prevention team in the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, for officials posted internationally to be trained in recognizing the warning signs of atrocities, and to look at whether enough aid was reaching places at risk.
About the author
William Worley@willrworley
Will Worley is the Climate Correspondent for Devex, covering the intersection of development and climate change. He previously worked as UK Correspondent, reporting on the FCDO and British aid policy during a time of seismic reforms. Will’s extensive reporting on the UK aid cuts saw him shortlisted for ‘Specialist Journalist of the Year’ in 2021 by the British Journalism Awards. He can be reached at william.worley@devex.com.