Ukraine crisis threatens a backslide in climate change progress

Delegates at the Sustainable Energy for All Forum warned that global crises such as the war in Ukraine and hikes in food and fuel prices could distract from creating the momentum needed to curb climate change.

Last year, greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat, and ocean acidification all set new records, as climate change’s impacts continue to outpace human efforts to curb it. Extreme weather cost the global economy hundreds of billions in losses. The Horn of Africa, continually ravaged by climate volatility, is facing the worst drought in 40 years.

To hit net-zero emissions by 2050 and avoid the worst effects of climate change, global emissions need to be cut by 45% from 2010 levels. At the last United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP 26, in Glasgow, countries were asked to develop more ambitious nationally determined contributions — country-level plans to curb emissions and adapt to the changes — in order to stem the damage. Nations are slated to meet in November at COP 27 in Egypt.

“The current level of [nationally determined contribution] pledges remains insufficient to achieve either our temperature goals or our clean energy goals,” said Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, during the forum held in Kigali, Rwanda this week.

Espinosa added that while the costs of renewable energy are dropping, much more is needed to electrify transportation, buildings, and industry, as well as restructure grids to provide clean energy.

“There can be no easing up on our efforts. Climate change remains the most significant, alarming and rapidly escalating crisis facing humanity. We need bold, collective action now,” she said.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine creates an immediate crisis that could distract from efforts to quell the climate crisis, forum participants said. The U.N. predicts that as countries look for other energy sources in response to high oil and gas prices, “fossil fuel production is likely to increase in the short term.”

The risk around COP 27 is “a backsliding from what we achieved in Glasgow in the current context of energy security concerns,” said Joyce Lee, head of policy and projects at the Global Wind Energy Council.

The crisis has spurred a massive food security crisis, which is consuming the attention of governments worldwide. Thirty-six countries import more than 50% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The Food and Agriculture Organization published a report in April that said food prices are 34% higher than they were last year. An estimated 1.7 billion people are at risk of falling “into poverty, destitution and hunger” because of the crisis in Ukraine.

Inflation is expected to reach 6.7% this year, which is twice the average levels.

And discussions in international forums have become much more militarized.

“We are talking about more and more weaponry and not a lot more [on] international cooperation,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO at the European Climate Foundation.

COP 27 and beyond

Despite declining attention to climate action, a lot needs to happen at COP 27, participants at the forum in Kigali said. This includes concrete proposals on adaptation to climate change, plans for an increase in blended finance and more forceful action taken by multilateral development banks to support renewable energy projects, Tubiana said.

Many countries also have a high debt burden limiting the fiscal space they have for big infrastructure investments in renewable energy, said Nigel Topping, a “high-level climate action champion” for COP 26. Because of this, the conference needs to address the global community taking a “very different approach to restructuring debt,” he said.

Commitments are also needed from high-income countries to provide the same type of demand aggregation previously used to reduce prices for solar and wind projects and extend that to electrolyzers, for the production of green hydrogen, and carbon capture, said Ahmed Saeed, vice president of the Asian Development Bank.

And green bonds, which are used to finance climate-friendly projects, have “enormous potential,” but are underutilized, said Helena McLeod, deputy director-general and head of the green growth planning and implementation division at the Global Green Growth Institute. She said there is a lot of demand from countries in scaling up the use of green bonds, yet currently, only about 1% of the total global bond market is green.

And micro and regional level support is needed to increase the number of renewable energy projects. There aren’t enough bankable renewable projects in the pipeline, which needs to change, Lee said, adding that there is significant private sector interest to invest in commercially viable renewable projects in emerging markets.

Global price volatility in wholesale markets, which existed even before the Ukraine crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has caused extreme volatility in renewable supply chains, she said. To ease this volatility, industry can restructure contracts, use hedging mechanisms and consolidate. Governments can work to get more land and seabed available to develop renewable projects for developers to achieve economies of scale, she said, adding that there is also a need for regional stockpiles and commercialization of recycling streams of commodities and critical minerals used in renewable projects.