Ukraine crisis expected to deepen Horn of Africa's drought devastation

The Horn of Africa is expected to feel the tremors of the intensifying crisis in Ukraine, especially as the prices of food, oil, and fertilizer rise. Parts of the East Africa region— including those in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya — are already experiencing the worst drought in decades, coupled with an underfunded humanitarian response. South Sudan, meanwhile, is experiencing widespread food insecurity due to severe flooding.

If East Africa’s rains fail again, up to 28 million people in the region could face severe hunger.

“The crisis in Ukraine, which is generating so much suffering there, is also amplifying suffering and really the severity of conditions across the world,” said Gabriela Bucher, executive director at Oxfam International, during a press conference Tuesday.

The region is highly dependent on crops from Ukraine and Russia, the country invading it. About one-quarter of the world’s wheat comes from the two nations, and 40% of Ukraine’s wheat and corn exports are sent to the Middle East and Africa. East African nations import up to 90% of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia, with wheat and its products accounting for one-third of average national cereal consumption in the region.

Wheat prices have already spiked globally, reaching levels comparable to those during the 2008 financial crisis.

The price of wheat and oil has risen by 300% in Somalia, with nearly 700,000 people already displaced within the country by the drought. Devex recently traveled to Puntland state, where many Somali families said plain pasta is one of the only things they can afford. Livestock are dying in large numbers, and many of the remaining animals are too weak to sell. Vegetables and fruits are out of reach for many families because of the price.

“As disruptions begin to affect the global trade in grains, oil, transport and fertilizer, food prices are beginning to skyrocket. They hit an all-time high last week. In Somalia, the prices for staple grains were more than double those of the previous year,” Oxfam wrote in a press release Tuesday.

In Kenya, the price of fuel went up for the first time in five months, leading to an increase in the price of commodities. Also, the price of gas used for cooking has risen by 48%.

Farmers are expected to suffer heavily as well. Russia leads the world in producing fertilizer, and a rise in the cost of electricity and transportation in Somalia has a “disproportionate impact on poor small-scale farmers and pastoralists who, in the face of erratic rainfall and an ongoing drought, rely on irrigation-fed agriculture powered by small diesel engines for their survival,” according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

Beyond price increases, there are also worries that the Russian invasion has diverted global attention from other crises. Humanitarian organizations have expressed concern that donor governments are already shifting aid budgets away from some regions to fund the Ukraine response. Currently, the United Nations’ $6 billion appeal for efforts in Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan is only 3% funded. And as prices rise, humanitarian agencies have less purchasing power with their limited funds.

“In 2010-11, similar spikes in food prices pushed 44 million more people worldwide into extreme poverty, and indications are that the food-price inflation happening now will be even worse,” Oxfam wrote.

Large swaths of East Africa have experienced three failed rainy seasons in a row, with parts of Somalia facing four, said Francesco Rigamonti, a regional humanitarian coordinator for Oxfam, during Tuesday’s press conference. At the same time, South Sudan has suffered from five consecutive years of severe flooding.

Even with adequate rains, hunger will be widespread. If the coming rainy season is inadequate, between 15 million and 20 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are expected to experience severe food insecurity or worse, Rigamonti said.

Even if the rains are average or above average, 7 million to 11 million people will still see at least crisis levels of food insecurity. South Sudan is also expected to have 8.3 million people in severe food insecurity between May and July, Rigamonti said, adding that global and regional meteorological agencies have reported an increased possibility of average to below-average rains.

“Even in the best-case scenario, we will have to deal with food insecurity,” he said.

The humanitarian sector is calling for increased funding for the response, with efforts including food distributions, cash transfers, water trucking, livestock restocking, hygiene and sanitation improvements, and work to reduce gender-based violence — which increases in times of crisis — among other efforts.