'Very, very worried': Another bleak year expected for food security

As the war in Ukraine approaches its second year and climate change continues to wreak havoc in places such as the Horn of Africa, experts are bracing for another year of dire consequences for global food security. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in global grain and fertilizer prices as it became extremely difficult to get exports out of the country. While a United Nations-brokered deal has eased some of the supply issues, the high cost of fertilizers means it’s still out of reach for many farmers. The situation, compounded by climate and weather shocks, could become even more perilous for the most vulnerable, World Food Programme Executive Director David Beasley told Devex. “I’m very, very worried. I think we will have a food availability problem [in 2023] … If we don’t address the issues that need to be addressed quickly, effectively, strategically — I’m worried that we will have mass destabilization around the planet [this] year,” Beasley said. “With a food availability problem, all this could culminate into the beginning of a global depression by the end of [this] year.” According to WFP, an estimated 828 million people are already hungry, with the number of those facing acute food insecurity more than doubling to 345 million from 135 million since 2019. People in 49 countries are currently at risk of famine. As fertilizer prices are expected to remain elevated, David Laborde, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, warned against subsidies, which he described as expensive and “not smart.” Other interventions, like increased access to extension services, technical expertise, and data about soil quality, are a better use of government funds, he said. “All signs point to 2023 looking even worse on an acute level, on a chronic level, and in terms of malnutrition.” --— Catherine Maldonado, senior director of food security, Mercy Corps Without proper access to fertilizer, smallholder farmers will not plant as much as they’d normally be able to grow. According to Africa Fertilizer Watch, the demand for fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa is low because prices are so high and many countries are suffering economically. This will restrict local food supply, pushing countries to turn to more expensive imports. Increasing rice prices are a concern over the coming year, Laborde said. Ukraine is not a rice exporter, but the fertilizer shortages are impacting crop yields elsewhere, he said. Floods in Pakistan are also affecting rice supply, while the market is causing some countries to impose export restrictions. “Any new weather shock can still lead to significant increase in prices,” said Laborde, who added that he had been hopeful last year that 2022 would see the world shrugging off the supply chain effects of COVID-19. “Overall, I am more pessimistic right now than I was in the fall of last year,” Laborde said. “Weather, level of stock, fertilizer, macroeconomic situation with debt crisis and inflation rate … the situation is going to be tense again this year.” Rising debt levels are extremely concerning for low-and-middle-income countries, he said. Because the dollar remains strong and international commodities are traded in the currency, many countries are having trouble importing basic staples. Inflation is putting pressure on the poorest households and is likely to continue to make the situation worse for the most vulnerable, he said. He was hopeful that there won’t be another massive spike in global food prices, but remained worried that they have stabilized at such high levels. While the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index was down to 135.7 in November from 2022’s high in March of 159.7, it remains more than 40 points above 2019’s level, before the pandemic. Laborde said that the income of the poorest will not catch up with higher prices, and it will affect nutrition as people modify their diets towards less nutritious foods in favor of cheaper calories. The financial collapse of countries such as Sri Lanka and Ghana this year demonstrates that it isn’t just the lowest-income countries that are vulnerable to the macroeconomic headwinds at the moment, Laborde said. “What I’m worried about is to see more of this scenario going on, especially linked to the debt crisis and the exchange rate situation,” Laborde said. “Obviously if you are a food and energy importer, that’s where you start to be highly vulnerable to this.” All of this leaves humanitarians bracing for the worst in 2023 as ongoing crises are expected to deteriorate further and more people are pushed to higher levels of food insecurity. Catherine Maldonado, senior director of food security at Mercy Corps, said her organization is shifting its approach to focus on acute crisis situations, such as in Somalia. But they cannot lose sight of other parts of the world, such as Guatemala and Nepal, which might not get as much attention, she said. “All signs point to 2023 looking even worse on an acute level, on a chronic level, and in terms of malnutrition. The numbers we’re seeing across the board at every level are increasingly concerning,” Maldonado said. It is vital that funding levels start to match need, and not only to address acute food insecurity and current emergencies, but to invest in resilience building to future shocks, she said. “We really want to make sure that while humanitarian funds go up, we also really want to make sure that there are investments now that will help to accelerate the recovery process,” Maldonado said. “That we see as being absolutely critical for making sure that this protracted crisis has an accelerated timeline for recovery.”