Wellcome commits £22.7M for tools to predict climate-fueled outbreaks

Wellcome has committed £22.7 million ($27.9 million) to 24 research teams in 12 countries to develop digital tools that work to better predict where and when climate change-fueled infectious disease outbreaks will occur. It hopes policymakers will use these tools to serve as early warnings, helping them prepare for outbreaks in a way that is more preventive rather than reactive. As temperatures increase, greater swaths of the world become fertile ground for mosquitoes that carry diseases such as dengue, and natural disasters contaminate water sources, leading to diseases like cholera, which has recently become turbocharged. As geographical ranges of species shift, new disease transmissions between species can also occur. Over a billion people who hadn’t been at risk before could face infections of dengue, zika, chikungunya, and other diseases by 2080. Dearth of innovative tools: Felipe Colón, technology lead at Wellcome, said in a press release that the link between climate change and the spread of infectious disease is often overlooked, leading to a “critical shortage of tools that model the relationship between climate change and disease outbreaks.” A Wellcome-funded study found only 37 fully developed tools focused on climate-sensitive infectious disease modeling — mostly from North America or Europe. Innovative but accessible: Some of the projects funded under this new commitment include software aimed at forecasting the risk of cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, an early warning system for local health practitioners to predict dengue outbreaks in Vietnam, and a tool that will use climate change data to examine how land use will affect disease transmission in Brazil. “While these projects will be focused in specific areas, with different geographies presenting different challenges for disease modeling, the fundamentals of these systems and tools should be transferable across the world,” Wellcome said in the press release. Beyond being clever, these tools must also be accessible to local health officials and policymakers, Colón wrote. Visit the Planet Health series for more in-depth reporting on the current impact of the climate crisis on human health around the world. Join the conversation by using the hashtag #PlanetHealth.