What incoming Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could mean for UK aid

Rishi Sunak, who pushed for drastic cuts to the legally enshrined 0.7% of gross national income aid budget, is to become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom. He’s the second U.K. government leader in as many months to take office without a vote being put to the general public, and one of the richest ever to hold the office — richer even than King Charles III. The former chancellor of the exchequer will be the U.K.’s third prime minister in as many months. During his two years as chancellor, Sunak gained a reputation for his ruthlessness with the aid budget during the process of reducing it to 0.5% of GNI, a policy which subtracted around £4.6 billion from the budget and caused extensive damage to development programs. “During the discussions on the cuts he could not care less and despite [Former Foreign Secretary Dominic] Raab trying to make it a bit more rational (like a gradual reduction) he went for max political impact … Treasury in power is bad news for aid budget,” said a former official at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. Under Sunak, the Treasury gained a reputation for maximizing what funds could be attributed to the aid budget and not going over 0.5%. The decision to charge the U.K.’s allocation of Special Drawing Rights to the aid budget was greatly criticized. “We know he’s fiscally conservative by nature, and pragmatic,” said Ranil Dissanayake, policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. “That points towards aid continuing to be at risk. His instinct as Chancellor was to use every available method to squeeze aid. A lot will depend on the instincts of his Chancellor and how much freedom he gives them.” Foreign Secretary James Cleverly tweeted his support for Sunak on Monday, having announced his backing for Boris Johnson on Sunday. During his leadership contest with former Prime Minister Liz Truss — who won by 57% of votes in a poll of members of the Conservative Party but left office under pressure just 44 days later after the pound hit an all-time low against the dollar — Sunak proposed using the aid budget as leverage to help control migration. “When we are choosing where to provide aid … I think it's entirely reasonable that if we’re thinking about where we can do that, we do it with countries that are happy to help us and take back their failed asylum seekers,” Sunak told an audience in August. Sunak’s climate credentials are also lacking, with the U.K. having paid £3.2 billion in climate finance in 2020, just 55% of its fair share as estimated by the think tank ODI. While Sunak’s appointment is expected to calm financial markets, which have been chaotic since Truss and former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget sparked mayhem in the financial markets on Sept. 23, the U.K., still faces a £40 billion budget black hole. The need for funds is unlikely to allay the concerns of the development sector, which has been calling for the freeze on “non essential” U.K. aid spending to be ended. The freeze was set to end on Oct. 31, when another fiscal statement was due to be delivered, but that date is contingent on Sunak’s approval and could be delayed. The prospect of a Sunak premiership is unlikely to allay fears that the aid budget could be slashed further to 0.3% of national income. If that cut went ahead, it could cost around 180,000 lives in money taken from health programs on preventable deaths, according to newly released research by CGD.