Losses from school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic are worse than initially thought, with learners increasingly in danger of seeing their future incomes sharply diminished, according to a new report.
The joint study from the World Bank and United Nations agencies estimates that losses in lifetime earnings, at present value, could hit $17 trillion — a 70% increase from previous estimates. It noted that schools remain closed in some areas of the world, and experts are raising concerns that approximately 24 million children are “at risk of never returning to education.”
Educational metrics, such as being unable to read a basic text by age 10 — dubbed “learning poverty” — are seeing dramatic shifts. In low- and middle-income countries, the share of children in learning poverty was 53% before the pandemic but could now reach 70%.
“This is morally unacceptable,” said João Pedro Azevedo, a World Bank economist, during a panel discussion about the report.
Alarm bells: Experts taking part in the event urged countries to take the crisis seriously through strict monitoring of losses and by putting money toward tracking education metrics and financing education recovery programs. Azevedo said the data was “highly concerning,” warning that existing inequalities would likely be exacerbated.
The report says that girls, children with disabilities, and low-income people are being hurt the most. In addition, an estimated 10 million girls are at risk of early marriage due to school closures, the report finds, and progress on gender equality could slip.
Back to class: The report takes a clear policy position that reopening school should be a “top priority for countries, as growing evidence indicates that with adequate measures, health risks to children and education staff can be minimized.”
However, the report is not entirely negative on remote learning, saying that if systems are strengthened and technology improved, such approaches could “complement skilled and well-supported teachers.”
About the author
Shabtai Gold
Shabtai Gold is a Senior Reporter based in Washington. He covers multilateral development banks, with a focus on the World Bank, along with trends in development finance. Prior to Devex, he worked for the German Press Agency, dpa, for more than a decade, with stints in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, before relocating to Washington to cover politics and business.