Economic Expert Group (EEG)
Economic Expert Group (EEG) - an independent analytical center, dealing with the problems of macroeconomics and public finance. EEG was created in 1997, bringing together experts who provided analytical support to the Department of Macroeconomic Policy Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in the framework of international projects since 1994. Since its inception to the present time the EEG is constantly working closely with the government (especially the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development), the Central Bank and the President's Administration. Head EEG E. Gurvich is a member of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation, Deputy Chairman of the Public Council under the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, member of the Advisory Council under the Chairman of the Bank of Russia. EEG maintains constant cooperation with legislative bodies, EEG employees regularly participate in parliamentary hearings held by the Duma and the Federation Council. Head EEG E.T.Gurvich, in 2014-2015 gg. He was a member of the Supervisory Board (Board of Directors) of the Savings Bank of Russia. According to estimates of the magazine "Itogi" former (AV Dvorkovich) and current (ET Gurvich) EEG managers are among the key "creators of the government's economic strategy." "Profile" magazine included the EEG in the top five most influential Russian expert organizations.
Economic Expert Group is also included in the rating of the world's leading think tanks, developed by the University of Pennsylvania each year. At the end of 2016 EEG takes the 40th place among the think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe. "To" At the end of 2016 EEG takes the 40th place among the think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe.
The main content of the work of the EEG make research and analysis in the following areas:
Forecasting of the Russian economy,
Elaboration and implementation of the current and medium-term fiscal policy,
Improvement of the budgetary process and inter-budgetary relations,
A comprehensive assessment of the monetary and exchange rate policy,
Study and make recommendations on other issues of macroeconomic policy,
Public debt management at the federal, regional and municipal level,
Structural reforms in public finance,
The analysis and monitoring of the situation in the Russian economy,
Development of recommendations on the issues of long-term economic development,
Analysis and forecasting of development of the financial sector,
Russian cooperation with international organizations ( "Big Twenty," BRICS, IMF, World Bank, OECD, APEC, the EBRD, and others.) On economic issues.
According to government jobs EEG continuously developing short-, medium- and long-term macroeconomic projections, conducting a comparative analysis of fiscal policy scenarios, evaluates the progress of tax reform, models of inflation indicators. From 1994 to present, the EEG is preparing a monthly review of the Russian economy, sent by the Ministry of Finance in the Government, the Central Bank and the State Duma.
The group has gained a wide range of models describing the economy as a whole and its individual indicators (inflation, exchange rate, fiscal revenues, and others.). In times of financial crisis, the group built a set of leading indicators of financial risks.
One of the main activities of the EEG associated with public debt management problems. EEG experts have built a series of long-term macroeconomic forecasts used by the Russian government in the negotiations with the Paris and London Clubs of creditors, and participated in the negotiations that resulted in the write-off of public debt amounting to more than 10 billion. Dollars and the rest of the restructuring of the debt of the former USSR. EEG preparing description of the Russian economy for all prospectuses Russian Eurobonds. The Group regularly participates in the development of public debt management strategy.
Since Russia's sovereign credit rating assignment (in 1996) up to 2008 EEG provide its analytical support, preparing presentations and rating agencies providing rating information and analytical support.
EEG has been actively involved in the preparation of the reform of public finances. In 2000, EEG experts were among the key participants in the development of the new government's economic program ( "Gref program"). In 2011-2012 gg. EEC staff took an active part in the work of expert groups established by the government to finalize the "Strategy 2020". At the same time the head of the EEG E. Gurvich led a group of "Fiscal and monetary policy, macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy." In 2012, Presidential Decree E. Gurvich was awarded the Order of Honor for his contribution to the development of the socio-economic strategy of Russia for the period up to 2020. In 2016 the President of the Russian Federation E.T.Gurvich order was included in the working group of the Economic Council under the President of "Priorities of structural reforms and sustained economic growth." Starting with the 2016 EEG employees are actively involved in CSR for the preparation of a new program of socio-economic development of the country. In addition, the EEG has participated in the preparation of long-term fiscal strategy, pension reform, reform of intergovernmental fiscal relations, tax reform, the development of fiscal rules, the Stabilization Fund mechanism, and then the Reserve and National Welfare Fund and others.
EEG almost from the beginning involved in the implementation of the reform of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation aimed at the implementation of Performance-based budgeting and medium-term budget planning. EEG experts participated in the preparation of reports on the results and main directions of activity of a number of federal agencies, including the Ministry of Finance
Economic Expert Group actively cooperates with regional authorities. In particular, the EEG has worked with the administrations of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Sakha (Yakutia), the Republic of Karelia, Mari El, Khabarovsk Krai, Samara, Ivanovo and Tver regions. The group has developed a program of public finance areas, advising on fiscal optimization of the regional budget, to build debt management model, developed the strategy of borrowing, prepare analytical materials for the assignment of the regions international credit ratings, and other services.
Starting with the 2014 EEG in conjunction with CMASF prepares research and analytical materials on economic policy and development of the city of Moscow to the Moscow government.
EEG together with the international rating agency Fitch Ratings has developed a new regional and municipal debt management scheme as part of the reform of the budget system at the regional level. Develop a model legal and methodical base of management of debt and contingent liabilities, and mating with this risk at the subnational level. A significant part of the results has been implemented in the regions participating in the project: in the Chuvash Republic, Vologda and Chelyabinsk regions.
In addition, the EEG has prepared evaluation scheme budget regional policy, which has been used by the Ministry of Finance for the selection of the best regions for the purpose of granting assistance from the World Bank. By order of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Group has developed a methodology to assess the tax and financial potential of the subject of the Russian Federation, taking into account also the quality of management of the regional budget.
The activities of the EEG is not only connected with the problems of the Russian economy: in 2003 - 2004 years. EEG experts commissioned by the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan have developed a macroeconomic model of the economy of Kazakhstan, in 2008 conducted a study of the problems of competitiveness of Kazakhstan's economy.
A number of projects carried out EEG business. So, assessed the contribution of nuclear energy sector in the Russian economy commissioned by the State Corporation Rosatom, built macroeconomic projections for Gazprombank and SUEK, a forecast budgetary performance commissioned by the KLA, has created a model of long-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators for TNK-BP.
EEG has extensive experience in projects of international organizations (World Bank, TACIS, the US Agency for International Development, Agency for International Development of Great Britain).
EEG partners in the implementation of projects were KPMG, Fitch Ratings, Sofreco (France), Global Insight (USA), ECORYS (the Netherlands), as well as a number of Russian organizations. Full list of projects carried out by the Economic Expert Group, can be found in the section "Projects" .
EEG experts are graduates of the best universities and Russian Economic School (Russian Economic School, the Graduate School of Economics, Moscow State University). Some of them have degrees, some have been trained in Western universities, regularly participate in courses organized by the World Bank and the IMF. All the experts are fluent in English, some are multilingual.
Business skills and qualifications EEG employees received public recognition: a number of former employees of the EEG is currently working in the federal government (for example, AV Dvorkovich - Deputy Prime Minister, E. V. Lebedinskaya - Director of the Department of Revenue of the Ministry of Finance). Many former employees of the EEG successfully work in banks and companies - so Yu.V.Tseplyaeva is chief economist at Sberbank.
The Group maintains a continuous cooperation with the IMF, World Bank, OECD, the European Commission, the EBRD, the embassies of the leading countries of the world, as well as the Russian Business Association RSPP and "Business Russia". We work closely with the analysts of the largest international investment banks: City Group, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, UBS, HSBC, JPMorgan, ING Barrings, Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas, Unicredit and others Long-term partnerships. EEG connect with leading international Standard and Poor's rating agencies, Moodys, Fitch.
EEG experts are actively involved in the public discussion of economic policy issues. We were constantly approached for comments by leading Russian media, including "Vedomosti", "Kommersant", "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", RIA "Novosti", Interfax, RosBusinessConsulting. We were referred to international news agencies and publications: Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Economist.
EEG experts regularly appear in the programs of the national channels ( "Channel" RTR "Vesti-24" TVC "Channel Five", "Rain") and the business channel RBC-TV, radio, participate in press conferences and round tables, publishing articles and interviews in professional journals. According to the magazine "Kommersant-Vlast" EEG takes third place in the country among the think tanks in frequency of citations in the media, interviews and commentary EEG experts in the media and trade publications can be found under "Publications - Media" and "Statements - Other" .
EEG is working closely with a number of prominent Russian and international research centers. The former include the Higher School of Economics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Development Center, Center for Strategic Research (CSR), Center for Fiscal Policy. Among foreign partners include the Institute of International Finance (Institute of International Finance), the World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum), World Economic Development Institute of research at the United Nations (WIDER), and others. EEG is one of the founders of the Association of Independent Centers of Economic analysis of Russia (ARETT ), from 2011-2015. E. Gurvich was president of Think Tanks.
Economic Expert Group combines analytical work with the research. For example, since 2014 the EEG conducts a series of works entitled "Study on the economic mechanisms of formation of wages and employment in Russia", supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation program "Fundamental research and exploratory research by individual research groups." In 2016, as part of this project has been prepared kolelktivnaya monograph "The mechanisms of the Russian labor market" (ed. "Case"), edited by E.T.Gurvicha and E.V.Vakulenko.
In 2014, E. T. Gurvichu Prize has been awarded Egora Gaydara " for outstanding contribution in the field of economy ", in 2015 he was awarded a medal ARETT "For outstanding contribution to the study of the Russian economy and economic policy."
EEG staff research results have been published in a number of Russian and international publications. Among the most recent publications include:
The fight against the shadow economy in Russia: specific aspects of common problems, "Journal of Finance", №6, 2016.
Institutional Constraints and Economic Development, 'Russian Journal of Economics' magazine, №4, 2016 (in Russian: Institutional framework and economic development, Journal of "Social Sciences and Modernity", №1, 2017).
Analysis of the nature of the causal link between inflation and wages in Russia. Journal of "Problems of forecasting», №5, 2016.
Employment in the Russian public sector: the importance of social or economic factors? Magazine "Problems of Economics", №8, 2016.
Fiscal rules: excessive restriction or an essential tool of fiscal sustainability? Magazine "Problems of Economics", №4, 2016.
Evolution of the Russian macroeconomic policies in the three crises, "Journal of the New Economic Association", №1 (29) 2016.
The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy Journal "Problems of Economics", №1, 2016.
Modeling of mechanisms of the Russian labor market, Journal of "Problems of Economics", №11, 2015.
On the budgetary cost of banking crises. "The financial magazine", №5, 2015.
Oil super cycle and fiscal policy, Journal of "Problems of Economics", №9, 2015.
The relationship between wages in the private and public sectors, Journal "Problems of Economics", №7, 2015.
Dynamics of tax collection in Russia: the macroeconomic approach, "Journal of Finance", №4, 2015
The new growth model for the Russian economy Journal "Problems of Economics", №12, 2014.
The impact of oil prices and the exchange rate on the fiscal revenues of the system, "Journal of Finance", №1, 2014
How to ensure the external sustainability of the Russian economy Journal "Problems of Economics", number 9, 2013.
an aging population and the threat of a budget crisis, "Problems of Economics" №3, 2012.
The role of oil and gas assets in Russia, "Problems of Economics" №3, 2012.
Microanalysis of the Russian pension system, "Questions of Economy" №2, 2012.
The principles of the new pension reform, "Problems of Economics" №4, 2011.
What determines the depth of the recession during the crisis? "Journal of the New Economic Association», №8, 2010.
Oil and gas rents in the Russian economy. "Problems of Economics" №11, 2010.
Managing the Crisis. A Comparative Analysis of Economic Governance in 14 Countries. Ed. Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2010.
Reform of 2010: whether long-term problems of the pension system are solved? "Journal of the New Economic Association», №6, 2010.
The connection between the exchange rate and inflation in Russia, "Problems of Economics" №1, 2010.
The cyclical properties of fiscal policy in oil-producing countries, "Problems of Economics», № 2, 2009.
Assessment of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, a contribution to the dynamics of the real exchange rate, "Problems of Economics», № 7, 2008.
Prospects of the Russian pension system, "Problems of Economics», № 9, 2007.
How accurate are the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts? "Issues of the economy», № 9, 2006.
The exchange rate and the competitiveness of the Russian economy, "Problems of Economics», № 6, 2006.
Terms of monetary policy and their application in Russia ( "Monetary policy rules and their application in Russia"), Research in International Business and Finance, 20, 2006.
Formation and use of the Stabilization Fund, "Problems of Economics», № 4, 2006.
Fiscal and monetary policy in a volatile external environment, "Problems of Economics», № 3, 2006.
Lessons 1998 Russian crisis ( 'Lessons from the Russian Crisis of 1998 and Recovery') in his book "The economic policy in the conditions of instability and crisis» ( 'Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide'), Cambridge University Press, 2005.
Sectoral structure of the Russian tax system, "Problems of forecasting», № 3, 2005.
Macroeconomic assessment of the role of the Russian oil and gas sector, "Problems of Economics», № 10, 2004.
Terms of monetary policy the Bank of Russia, the EERC Research report number 04/09, 2004
Inflation and monetary policy, "Problems of Economics», № 12, 2003
Economic analysis of tax reform, "Questions of the economy», № 6, 2003.See more