Opinion: Agriculture is missing in climate action. NDCs can change that

For investors, robust country plans mapping out how they aim to combat climate change are essential to managing climate-related risks and unlocking opportunities, especially in low- and middle-income countries. As of today, however, a core area that can drive the fight against climate change and support global development features too little in these plans: agriculture. At the heart of the Paris Agreement on climate change, nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, outline country-level commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the policies required to achieve them. Clear, ambitious policy signals through NDCs give investors the certainty needed to confidently allocate capital toward resilient infrastructure, sustainable food systems, and low-emission technologies — sectors crucial to improving livelihoods, food security, and economic stability in LMICs. The Paris Agreement remains an important global agreement to manage the growing material risks of climate change, which disproportionately impacts vulnerable populations. Despite federal policy changes in the U.S., thousands of businesses, investors, and local governments recently stated that they remain committed to the goals of the climate agreement. For LMICs, strong and actionable NDCs are not just climate tools, they are also development instruments that can unlock international finance and build more resilient communities. Yet, nearly 95% of governments missed the February deadline to submit updated NDCs. Now is the ideal time to promote the integration of food systems into countries’ commitments. While many NDCs mention agriculture, few provide the detail necessary for meaningful and just transformation to low-emission agriculture, and analysis by the Food and Land Use Coalition found that they neglected key areas such as dietary shifts, supply chain resilience, and financing mechanisms. This lack of clarity creates uncertainty for investors looking to support sustainable food systems and manage the financial risks associated with climate inaction, while encouraging a just transition that leaves no community behind. A mounting financial priority With the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP30, fast approaching, integrating agriculture and land use into NDCs is not just a climate imperative but also a financial one, as the material risks presented by the lack of climate action remain a key concern for investors. For LMICs in particular, where agriculture accounts for a significant share of GDP and employment, the financial stakes are especially high. Inadequate climate planning in this sector threatens both development progress and investment stability, which in turn can exacerbate food insecurity, rural poverty, and economic vulnerability. Recognizing this, at COP26, an investor statement backed by investors with $12 trillion in assets urged the Group of 20 largest and emerging economies to share plans for agricultural emissions reduction by creating ambitious policies and setting clear targets to be disclosed within or alongside their NDCs. For the first time, investors engaged with the topic of sustainable and healthy diets as a key lever to promote health and remain within planetary boundaries. Agriculture neglected in NDCs Submitted every five years, the initial deadline for the third round of NDCs was February 2025, which was postponed to September by the U.N. due to a slow response from member nations. Despite the critical role that sustainable food systems can play in climate mitigation and adaptation, limited attention has been given to this topic in NDCs so far. Food production measures, such as addressing land-use change and agricultural emissions, combined with action on sustainable diets and food waste, could contribute up to 20% of the global mitigation needed to deliver on the 1.5 degrees Celsius Paris Agreement target by 2050. This oversight is especially concerning for fragile and climate-vulnerable countries, where food systems are already under strain from the worst impacts of climate change. In LMICs, failing to embed comprehensive food system strategies into NDCs not only undermines global climate goals but also risks deepening food insecurity and stalling development progress. Prioritizing sustainable, resilient food systems in NDCs is therefore not just a climate necessity, it’s a development and stability imperative. Falling short on progress There was no mention of sustainable and healthy diets in 14 out of the 17 NDCs submitted by G20 countries in 2022. New analysis by the FAIRR Initiative finds that out of the five new NDCs submitted by G20 countries in the most recent round of NDCs, none of these has an agricultural emission reduction target. Analysis by the World Wide Fund for Nature found that very few countries included actions on food loss and waste, and only a handful considered consumption and diets, with the majority focusing on food production. However, a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization highlighted encouraging progress in the granularity of NDCs on food systems, with 47% of second-round NDCs including livestock and grassland systems compared to 27% in the first round.\ Subsequently, over 100 countries signed the UAE Declaration of Sustainable Agriculture at COP28 with a commitment to include agriculture in their climate action plans. However, since then there has been limited progress on the topic, undermining confidence in the credibility of these commitments. Brazil: Ambitious on paper, challenges in practice Brazil’s NDC acknowledges agriculture’s major role in both its economy and emissions — accounting for nearly a quarter of the country’s greenhouse gas, or GHG, output. It outlines plans to promote low-emission farming by converting degraded pastures and scaling integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems. However, enforcement remains a challenge. Experts warned that illegal deforestation and land grabbing undermine progress, raising doubts about whether the sector will fully shift toward sustainability. For investors, Brazil’s NDC sends the right signals, but delivery and accountability will determine credibility. Forging a positive pathway While NDC delays create uncertainty for investors, there is positive progress in those shared so far. For example, Switzerland’s new NDC includes an agriculture-specific target and a 2050 target to reduce the GHG footprint of food consumption per capita by two-thirds. New Zealand’s NDC has set a target to reduce biogenic methane — a significant source of agricultural emissions — by 24% to 47% below 2017 levels by 2050. Additionally, Liberia's 2030 commitment to reducing agricultural GHG emissions by 40% below business-as-usual, or BAU, levels demonstrates ambitious climate leadership. There is now an opportunity for clear policy direction to be shown in this next generation of NDCs. The development of ambitious national plans with specific targets will be important to enhance resilience and sustainability of agrifood systems at a time when food supply chains are increasingly under strain. Strengthening agriculture’s role in NDCs Addressing agricultural emissions is crucial to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. Ahead of COP30 and the postponed NDC submission deadline, we urge policymakers to be more specific and prioritize agricultural targets within NDCs. This is particularly vital for low- and middle-income countries, where agriculture is not only a major source of emissions but also a key element of livelihoods, food security, and economic resilience. In fragile and climate-vulnerable settings, the absence of clear targets and policies risks deepening systemic challenges while limiting access to climate finance. Disclosure of agriculture-specific targets will support the work of investors in addressing material climate-related risks and opportunities related to the food system.