$1B to strengthen weather forecasting for farmers announced at COP29

A high-profile global initiative to scale up innovations to help farmers on the frontlines of climate change has introduced its first package of investments: $1 billion aimed at bringing them improved weather forecasting. The investments are part of the Agriculture Innovation Mechanism for Scale, or AIM for Scale, and come from a consortium of partners including the World Bank and USAID. Each institution has pledged to channel money or resources into tools aimed at helping farmers across Asia, Latin America, and Africa. AIM for Scale was announced at climate conference COP28 as part of a partnership between the Gates Foundation and the United Arab Emirates. Its first major announcement, or “innovation package,” as the group calls it, is focused on harnessing the power of artificial intelligence technology in weather forecasting — which, some experts say, can lead to faster and more accurate predictions at a lower cost. The package was announced Wednesday at the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan. Improved weather forecasts are a crucial adaptation tool for smallholder farmers facing increasingly unpredictable climate patterns due to climate change, which brings less predictable rainfall and more extreme temperatures. Access to accurate, long-range forecasts allows farmers to make informed decisions about planting and resource investment. For instance, research from the University of Chicago found that when Indian farmers were given forecasts about the monsoon season, they adjusted their plans accordingly — those expecting shorter growing seasons reduced land use and fertilizer investment, while those anticipating longer seasons increased their land cultivation and cash crop production. By tailoring their actions to forecasted conditions, farmers were better able to manage risk, ultimately increasing net savings by as much as 10% of their annual income and reducing debt. The $1 billion includes both new and existing investments from a consortium of global partners. Key contributions include: • Asian Development Bank, or ADB: $300 million to develop weather forecasts for farmers in Asia and the Pacific, with an additional $600,000 in grants for technical support. The entirety of ADB’s announcement constitutes new investments, a spokesperson for the bank told Devex. In addition to weather forecasting, the investments might include financing for radio, TV, and mobile alerts for extreme weather; farmer training programs; and infrastructure and weather stations. The other organizations did not immediately respond to questions on how much of their investments were new. • Inter-American Development Bank, or IDB: Weather forecasting will be part of its $280-million-loan portfolio. The bank has also programmed $600,000 of grant resources to incorporate AI-based weather forecasting into agriculture projects across Latin America and the Caribbean. • World Bank: $1.46 billion of its data, digital agriculture, and innovations investments “align” with AIM for Scale’s weather forecasting initiative. The investments expand digital agriculture tools, including early warning systems and farmer registries, with nearly $600 million allocated to Africa. • USAID and NASA: $6.6 million to extend the SERVIR program to Central America, strengthening early warning systems to support climate resilience. A new SERVIR hub will be announced at the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center next month. Additional partners of AIM for Scale — including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT, Community Jameel, and the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence — announced training and research programs to expand AI-driven weather forecasting across more than 30 low- and middle-income countries.