The world is off track in fulfilling the United Nations high-level meeting targets for tuberculosis, and the global TB response may see further setbacks in 2021 than in 2020.
COVID-19 continues to have a significant impact on the TB response, and the Stop TB Partnership estimates at least 1.2 million fewer people may be diagnosed and treated for TB in 2021 compared to 2020, Stop TB Partnership Executive Director Lucica Ditiu said during a press briefing Tuesday.
In 2020, there was already an estimate of 1.4 million fewer people diagnosed and treated for the disease than in 2019, she said.
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“Actually, 2021 was not much better because we assume it's around 1.2 [million], maybe even 1.3 million people less than 2020 as well,” she added while cautioning that this is based on current trends and actual data won’t be available until the year ends.
Some countries, such as Zambia, have done well in maintaining TB programs amid COVID-19. As of mid-September, it has already identified and put on treatment 35,431 individuals against a target of 41,800 people with drug-sensitive TB, surpassing the country’s performance in 2018.
2021 will be probably worse than 2020 in some parts of the world [for TB diagnosis and treatment].
— Lucica Ditiu, executive director, Stop TB PartnershipThe country has also surpassed its targets for the year for TB preventive therapy, although data shows it’s still far behind its achievements in 2020, and that it continues to face challenges in finding children with TB, as well as individuals suffering from drug-resistant TB.
But Ditiu said some high-burden countries, particularly in Asia, saw a drop in diagnosed and treated TB cases in 2021.
“The fear that I have … we all have, is actually 2021 will be probably worse than 2020 in some parts of the world, but the problem is that if these parts of the world are the ones with the biggest numbers of TB, it will obviously drive everything down,” she said.
This poses a serious challenge for the TB community in reaching the global TB target of diagnosing and treating 40 million people with TB by 2022. According to new estimates from the Stop TB Partnership, based on data extrapolated from 27 countries that account for 75% of the global TB burden, that target “will not be achieved, severely [threatening] the prospects of ending TB by 2030.”
According to the organization’s projections, only up to 86% of 40 million people with TB will be treated by December 2022.
The figures are worse for children and those suffering from multidrug-resistant TB. Stop TB Partnership projections show only up to 57% of the target 1.5 million people suffering from multidrug-resistant TB will receive treatment. Among children, only about 22% of the target 115,000 suffering from multidrug-resistant TB will be treated.
But COVID-19 is not the only factor affecting the achievement of the targets. There has also been a persistent lack of financial resources for TB, even before COVID-19.
“TB every year gets less than 50% of what is needed, so a priori you’ll kind of agree that it's not possible to reach 100% of something with just 50% of the funding,” Ditiu said. But with increased resources, she said “I think we can go very close to 90%” of the U.N. targets.
About the author
Jenny Lei Ravelo@JennyLeiRavelo
Jenny Lei Ravelo is a Devex Senior Reporter based in Manila. She covers global health, with a particular focus on the World Health Organization, and other development and humanitarian aid trends in Asia Pacific. Prior to Devex, she wrote for ABS-CBN, one of the largest broadcasting networks in the Philippines, and was a copy editor for various international scientific journals. She received her journalism degree from the University of Santo Tomas.
