5 'what-ifs' for international development in 2022

With elections in the likes of France and Brazil, climate talks in Egypt, and one of Africa’s biggest countries, Ethiopia, at risk of coming apart, we asked global development experts for some out-of-the-box ‘what-ifs’ — good and bad — for 2022.

“Hypothetical but plausibly possible events that could impact the international humanitarian/development sector in 2022,” was the brief. Here is what they said.

1. On China

One former senior international development expert offered a possible scenario: “Fed up with continuous criticism of its human rights record and its financing of dubious development programmes in Africa and under the Belt and Road Initiative, China cancels its membership of the World Bank and regional development banks.”

But a former United Nations senior official said that’s unlikely, telling Devex that Beijing has been “like a little Pac Man, gobbling up bits of the international architecture — a few more shares here, a different U.N. agency here. And they are gonna work out what they want to use it for, or they are going to stymie things while they use their own entities.”

2. On Africa

COVID-19-permitting, leaders from the European Union and African Union will meet in Brussels on Feb. 17 to 18 for a major summit. The EU is preparing an “investment package,” and officials bristle at claims that they cannot offer fresh money beyond the bloc’s seven-year budget, which they insist is new, covering the period to 2027.

But what if the EU chose to offer something beyond a headline-grabbing figure based on still unproven estimates for leveraging private sector investment?

One suggestion, from the same former U.N. official? Commit to building a smart power grid with African countries, and even with China’s help.

“Your power comes from owning your transmission, and Africa's transmission is inadequate, because it doesn't reach 700 million people anyway, and it's obsolete and not fit for modern purposes,” the former official said. “So why don't we focus on that? That's something where the EU has got lots of help that it could provide, and it's something which would give Africa the ability to control its own destiny.”

Brussels will be hoping its recently announced Global Gateway, focused on sustainable infrastructure, proves a worthy tool for making progress in that direction.

3. On climate

The global climate talks in 2022 move to Africa. Chiming with what many others said, Ulrich Volz, director of the Centre for Sustainable Finance and professor of economics at SOAS, University of London, told Devex that success at this year’s U.N. Climate Change Conference in Egypt depends on progress on loss and damage.

“Across the board, African countries, along with developing countries elsewhere, are already suffering enormous losses due to climate change, even though they have contributed next to nothing to this,” Volz wrote to Devex. “The rich countries, whose historic carbon emissions are the cause for these damages, need to recognise their responsibility and agree to greater financial transfers to vulnerable countries.”

In this context, expect lots of attention on the EU’s sustainable finance taxonomy — currently subject to a fierce debate over whether to include nuclear and gas as clean forms of energy.

“If the EU goes ahead with the inclusion of gas and nuclear, the taxonomy will become a sham,” Volz told Devex. “It would send a terrible signal to the rest of the world. The EU would also lose all authority to convince others to go net-zero.”

Meanwhile, Greenpeace is working toward a ban on fossil fuels advertising, with more than 130,000 people having already called on the EU to take action.

“It might just happen,” a Greenpeace spokesperson wrote. “And like tobacco advertising bans that went before, it promises to be a gamechanger.”

4. At the ballot box

France, Colombia, and Australia all go to the polls this year, along with U.S. midterms, but perhaps the most significant vote is in Brazil where right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro is up for reelection.

Aline Burni, a Brazilian researcher at the German Development Institute, told Devex that although his poor management of the pandemic and record on the economy put him behind for now, a Bolsonaro win could not be discounted.

“Brazil has been like a pariah in the international scene because of the current government,” Burni told Devex. “But I think the EU and even the U.S. have stepped a bit too far away and left too much space for China, who has been investing pretty much in Brazil and in Latin America, notably in the area of renewable energies.”

Asked what the international community might do to advance issues like climate action and environmental protection despite Bolsonaro, Burni said one alternative is better links with other actors.

“Subnational governments, for instance, in Brazil have quite an important autonomy,” she said. “There is a consortium of governments in the area of the Amazon region that have a different perspective on the Amazon protection from the central government, [and] of course, NGOs and civil society organizations.”

5. On global health

Warning about the economic impact of COVID-19 variants, David McNair, the ONE Campaign’s executive director for global policy, said that his organization will be concerned about debt sustainability, particularly in countries identified as high risk by the World Bank, such as Chad and Ethiopia.

Though Andrew Sherriff, head of the European external affairs program at the European Centre for Development Policy Management, cautioned that when it comes to new variants, these can also sometimes be used “as excuses for a lack of progress on more tricky political dossiers in the EU."

Another focus for the ONE campaign will be the replenishment for the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in the United States in the second half of 2022. And McNair predicted a greater role for the fund in broader health security, fueled by the needs of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keep an eye out for any new donors too, after Russia’s absence was noted at the press conference following the fund’s 2019 replenishment in Lyon with French President Emmanuel Macron.