A just energy transition requires fair mineral deals for producing nations

The race to net zero has triggered a new scramble. Not for oil, but for the minerals that power the green and digital revolutions. Without fair mineral partnerships that create value at home for producing countries, the promise of a just energy transition will ring hollow.

Lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and rare earths are now as strategic as hydrocarbons once were, fueling batteries, turbines, solar panels, and data centers. Demand is soaring: The World Bank predicts that the production of minerals will increase by nearly 500% by 2050.

Governments and companies are moving fast to secure supplies. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act backs a pipeline of projects, including beyond its own borders, from Zambia to Madagascar. In December last year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the RESourceEU Action Plan, committing close to €3 billion to support minerals projects and strengthen Europe’s supply. Washington is launching the Mine of the Future initiative, committing $95 million to revitalize the domestic mining landscape, further intensifying global competition for investment and technology. Beijing is implementing permitting reforms to accelerate domestic mining and tightening its dominance in refining, including by limiting its minerals exports.