African elections 2015: What you should know

It’s a year of transition for 11 countries in Africa. After a much-criticized delay, presidential elections pushed through in Nigeria this weekend. It will be President Goodluck Jonathan’s biggest challenge this year, after an Ebola scare in June and amid insurgency in the north by militant group Boko Haram. He is facing an old rival in Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler who seized power during a coup d’etat in 1983. Jonathan and Buhari are the two frontrunners in a 14-way race to determine Nigeria’s next leader, a process that has been marked by violence. On the eve of this year’s elections, suspected Boko Haram militants beheaded 23 people and set fire to the homes in a town in northeast Nigeria. During the last presidential election in 2011, when Jonathan bested Buhari, postelection demonstrations left 800 people dead in northern Nigeria. While the elections aren’t expected to disrupt aid flows to the country — at least in the short term — postelection violence, if any, and what the next leader’s ensuing steps would be could change the direction of foreign aid to Abuja. And the same is true for the other African countries that are seeing leadership changes in 2015. Below, Devex takes a closer at the elections taking place across Africa this year, and analyzes what successful — or failed — elections would mean for each country’s development. Zambia Significance: An election was held in January 2015 to find a replacement for Zambian President Michael Sata, who died in October. Edgar Lungu, who comes from the same party as Sata, won the elections but will only be completing the late president’s term. It may be too much to expect a real shift in governance, policy and national development priorities before the next general election is held in September 2016. Country priorities: A few days before Sata’s death, his cabinet approved Zambia’s sixth revised national development plan for 2013-2016 with objectives similar to the previous multiyear blueprint: become a middle-income country by 2030, focusing heavily on job creation and rural development. Many of Zambia’s development partners claim the country’s economic growth has not translated to better opportunities for the majority of its citizens. According to the African Economic Outlook, there are 4.9 million informally employed people in Zambia, as opposed to just 625,000 people in the formal economy. The lack of infrastructure meanwhile is preventing rural areas from accessing the same opportunities available to those living in urban areas, widening the income gap even further. Donor priorities: Zambia’s top donor, the U.S. Agency for International Development, focuses its assistance in the country on agriculture, which remains the main source of income for many Zambians. It also prioritizes education, good governance and health, with a focus on reducing the incidence of HIV and AIDS, which accounts for more than 60 percent of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria’s grant portfolio in the country. The U.K. Department for International Development meanwhile puts an emphasis on addressing issues related to the Millennium Development Goals, especially in areas where the country is most off track. There is a particular focus on women and girls as well, such as reducing maternal mortality and providing better sanitation facilities for them. The donor agency has turned to sectoral budget support for its education assistance, with the aim of improving the quality of learning in schools. Lesotho Significance: A snap election held in February was meant to stabilize the country after a political crisis in August, when an attempted coup d’etat led then-Prime Minister Thomas Thabane to flee to neighboring South Africa. In the absence of a functioning government, the country was at risk of lawlessness, which could disrupt business, prevent foreign investments and hold back the kingdom’s development plans. Country priorities: In 2012, after Thabane was elected prime minister, the government approved its national strategic development plan, which is key toward the country meeting its 2020 aspirations to have a “stable democracy, a united and prosperous nation at peace with itself and its neighbors. It shall have a healthy and well developed human resource base, a strong economy, a well-managed environment and an established technological base.” Key goals of the plan include economic growth that create jobs, improved health — reducing HIV incidence rates in particular — and better environmental care and efforts to adapt to climate change. The country has the third-highest HIV prevalence rate globally, and is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Unemployment, meanwhile, remains a huge challenge, particularly among youths. Pakalitha Mosisili’s new coalition government is expected to forge ahead with the plan. Before the recently elected prime minister lost to Thabane in 2012, he oversaw the preparations for the development plan. Donor priorities: Despite ending its bilateral programming in Lesotho, USAID continues to channel aid to the country through its regional office in Pretoria, South Africa. It focuses its assistance almost exclusively on health, with a particular focus on HIV and AIDS treatment and prevention. Of its $33.8 million request for Lesotho in 2014, only $100,000 is left for peace and security issues. In its national indicative program for Lesotho under the 11th European Development Fund, meanwhile, the European Commission will be channeling 142 million euros ($154.6 million) to the landlocked country, with a particular focus on water, energy and governance. At the time of the political crisis, the World Bank was in the middle of discussions with the government on a systemic country diagnostic that would be integral to the development of a new country partnership framework for Lesotho. The framework is expected to be delivered in July, but the crisis and resulting change in leadership could potentially push its implementation months later. Nigeria Significance: Nigeria has one of the few thriving democracies in Africa, but it is also one of the newest. As such, failure to conduct free and fair elections could lead to further disenfranchisement by a select few who are already frustrated with the slowing economy, allegations of widespread corruption and the government’s handling of the ongoing insurgency in the north. Country priorities: In its 2015 budget, Nigeria emphasized the need for the country to ease its heavy reliance on oil revenue. Plummeting global oil prices has had a huge effect on Nigeria’s economy as 70 percent of its budget comes from oil revenue. But some experts wonder how the government will be able to pull this off, as weaning its economy off oil revenues would have a negative impact on available resources to improve important infrastructure and services. Donor priorities: Nigeria’s top donors acknowledge that their assistance is relatively small compared with the country’s own resources. But they are focusing on areas where they think their assistance would be more valuable. Under its new country partnership strategy for Nigeria, for instance, the World Bank will be focusing assistance on job and wealth creation, more inclusive social services, and strengthened governance and public sector management. Health, meanwhile, figures prominently among the country’s top bilateral donors. Sudan Significance: Omar al-Bashir has been Sudan’s president since 1989. The elections would provide a chance for a change in leadership — and with it, an easing of sanctions that have derailed its economy — but that is assuming there would be someone brave enough to challenge the longtime ruler. Members of the opposition have already said that they will boycott the elections. Country priorities: In 2012, Sudan released an interim poverty reduction strategy paper, whose midterm goal is to meet its MDGs. The paper also lays out a strategy to expand the country’s economic prospects and reduce its overreliance on oil, especially with the cessation of the oil-rich south. Meeting these goals however proved difficult given the lack of reliable and sufficient data, so in 2013, the government, with the help of the U.N. mission in the country, launched a national strategy to develop statistics. Donor priorities: Despite imposing sanctions on Sudan, USAID remains the country’s top donor. But USAID assistance is mostly humanitarian, and the rest is channeled to civil society actors working to promote peace and security, and advance democracy. The EU has a similar engagement in Sudan, but this is mainly due to the country not ratifying the Cotonou agreement, which is necessary to unlock funds under the European Development Fund for national allocations. It is understood that none of the USAID and EU money goes directly to the government. There are other players, however, such as Kuwait-based Arab Fund for Economic & Social Development, that don’t seem to mind extending direct assistance to Bashir’s government in the form of loans and grants. Although relatively small, the Arab Fund signed 39 loans worth more than 700,000 Kuwait dinar ($2.3 million) and 24 grants worth 13,452 Kuwait dinar with Sudan in 2013. Togo Significance: Togo has been ruled by one family for about 48 years — that of the late Gnassingbe Eyadema and his son Faure, who is running for a third term this year. The election provides a fresh chance for a change in leadership in the country. But a divided opposition means the likelihood of an election happening is slim, according to analyst. Ensuring peaceful elections is of critical importance to Togo, however, to prevent another decade of aid suspension. Political violence and human rights violations that the government allegedly committed led to a cessation of aid programs between 1994 and 2007. Country priorities: Under its strategy for boosting growth and promoting employment, which covers the period 2013-2017, Togo expresses its desire to become a middle-income country over the next 15 to 20 years by focusing on sectors where it deems it has strong growth potential, and investing in economic infrastructure and human capital, according to the World Bank. Donor priorities: The World Bank, Togo’s biggest donor according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is in the middle of preparing a new strategy aimed at supporting the country’s development goals — or at least some sections of it. The bank’s private sector windows are also active in the country. The European Union meanwhile has increased its allocation for Togo under the 2014-2020 EDF to 216 million euros, up from the 161 million euros in the previous period. The money is aimed to support state consolidation and security, improve access to clean water and sanitation, and boost the country’s energy supply. France appears to have similar focus areas, with a few million euros on education, agriculture and health projects. Ethiopia Significance: The late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi died in 2012, midway through his fourth term in office — marking the country’s first leadership change in nearly two decades. Hailemariam Desalegn, who was then the deputy prime minister, assumed leadership by default. The upcoming elections would then be the first time in decades that the country will have a chance to choose its next leader — provided the elections won’t be crowded out again by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front party, which has been accused of rigging the 2005 elections and is reportedly detaining those who wish to run in the May 24 elections. Already, several opposition candidates have announced they will not run or will withdraw from the race. Country priorities: Zenawi’s regime has been credited for building Ethiopia’s economy and addressing many of the country’s development challenges. In fact, the country has already reportedly achieved the Millennium Development Goals related to water and reducing child mortality, and has shown significant progress on the others. The current five-year government development plan, launched in 2010 to help the country move toward its goal of becoming a middle-income country, aims to achieve all the MDGs, and emphasizes education and training — particularly for women and young people to gain the skills and competencies needed to secure employment. The plan also focuses on health, especially maternal and child health, and on curbing the spread of communicable diseases such as HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Agricultural and rural development, industry and trade, mining and infrastructure are priorities as well. Good governance and strengthening the country’s democratic system also form part of the plan, which analysts argue is only lip service, given current developments on the ground. Ethiopia has one of the most restrictive laws on civil society, and journalists have been prosecuted under the current regime. Donor priorities: The World Bank’s country partnership strategy is closely aligned with the government’s growth and transformation plan. Its focus on good governance and state building aims to help the government improve public financial management, boost transparency and accountability, and encourage a wider space for citizen participation. The bank aims to mainstream gender and climate change into all of its programs in Ethiopia, as well as build the country’s private sector, which has remained small and focused on services. The multilateral institution argues this is due largely to businesses not having sufficient access to finance and the lack of necessary infrastructure, such as roads. U.S. aid to Ethiopia meanwhile continues to concentrate on humanitarian aid and health, the bulk of which goes to HIV and AIDS prevention and treatment. U.S. assistance is set decline however, as the donor transfers part of its resources from the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS relief to countries with a higher HIV burden. But Ethiopia is expected to benefit from the Obama administration’s Power Africa initiative, having been named one of six focus countries. Health also forms the biggest part of the U.K. aid portfolio in Ethiopia, with a particular focus on maternal and child health. Justice and security is high up on the donor’s priorities as well, although the focus has shifted to improving girls and women’s access to justice in the country. The United Kingdom plans to expand its work on private sector development and climate change in Ethiopia. Burundi Significance: The fragile peace Burundi achieved in 2003 is at risk of falling apart as President Pierre Nkurunziza is considering running for a third term in June, in clear violation of the agreed two-term limit for the presidency. The international community is worried this would result in violence, which could reverse development gains made over the past decade. Country priorities: Under its current poverty reduction strategy, Burundi aims to boost its agriculture sector, which is still the main source of livelihood for 90 percent of its population. But to generate more employment opportunities, the government is also targeting to expand its exports beyond coffee and tea. The government is looking to the mining and tourism sector to boost its economy as well, and integrate with the East African Community to unlock business and trade opportunities. It’s unclear, however, how far the country has gone to achieve these, or if these priorities will shift following the elections. The strategy only covers the period 2012-2015. Donor priorities: The World Bank, through its poverty arm, the International Development Association, has been helping strengthen the country’s governing structure, which it finds key to meeting Burundi’s poverty-reduction objectives. Its grants include support for the coffee sector, budget support and other assistance aimed at building the government’s institutional capacity to deliver services. The European Union meanwhile allocated more than double the amount it spent in Burundi between 2008 and 2013 under the 10th EDF. About 432 million euros will be spent on health care, rural development with a focus on nutrition, state building, energy sustainability and supporting civil society. These two donors suspended aid to the country in 1996 following a military coup, but resumed their programs shortly after the 2000 donor pledging conference for Burundi. Central African Republic Significance: The Central African Republic has been marked by political instability for decades. The latest was in 2013, when Seleka rebels plotted another coup attempt against President Francois Bozie, which eventually escalated to sectarian violence between Christian and Muslim militias. The unrest sparked a huge humanitarian crisis, led to a halt in aid activities and interrupted business environment, all of which proved detrimental to the country’s development. An election is expected to restore some form of stability, but the volatile situation and lack of funding are threatening the conduct of both parliamentary and presidential elections. Country priorities: CAR’s interim President Catherine Zamba-Panza’s utmost priority is to bring peace and unity to the conflict-torn country, and key here is to ensure the proper transition of power through transparent and fair elections. Donor priorities: In April last year, the World Bank, one of the country’s biggest donors, mobilized $30 million to restore key government services interrupted by the unrest. The focus currently is emergency assistance. The EU-led multidonor trust fund for CAR launched in July is also aimed at humanitarian and recovery efforts in the country. The fund was seen by nongovernmental organizations — at least the few that still have a presence there — to provide predictable funding to a country that has suffered low levels of aid despite its least developed status. France meanwhile has refocused its support: Beginning in 2014, it will be investing in education and training efforts as well as ensuring local development in both urban and rural areas to achieve economic recovery and boost employment. Burkina Faso Significance: Burkina Faso’s presidential elections in October would be the country’s first in 27 years. This milestone suggests a form of political awakening among the public, who took to the streets last year to protest President Blaise Compaore’s plan to remove term limits so he can run again in this year’s presidential race. The violent protests forced the longtime ruler to resign. Country priorities: Before the uprising, the government put in place a growth and development strategy plan, which aims to boost investments in infrastructure, such as major roads linking different parts of the country and the relocation of its main airport to a larger area. The government has also been piloting a universal health care initiative meant to cover the whole population by 2025. Implementation for these may have been temporarily suspended because of leadership changes. The priority of Michael Kafando, the interim president, is to ensure a successful transition to civilian rule before the year ends. Donor priorities: The World Bank provides financial, knowledge and partnership support to Burkina Faso under its country partnership strategy, which is up for midterm review this year. It provides advisory support for the government to improve and attract more private investments and partnerships. Under its 2014-2020 EDF, the EU provides support in areas where Burkina Faso faces challenges, such as improving health care and addressing malnutrition among children under 5. Governance however takes more than half of the EU’s 623 million euro allocation to the country. USAID for its part spent the bulk of its $216 million in aid on measures aimed at spurring economic growth in the country, such as on infrastructure and agricultural development. But in 2015, the U.S. government’s request almost exclusively focused on health, particularly on combating malaria and malnutrition. Guinea Significance: Can Guinea hold a presidential election while still fighting Ebola? That is the conundrum the republic finds itself in. Talk of postponing the election in light of the health emergency has already raised concerns among the opposition, which is accusing the government of using the crisis to extend its rule and as a means to gather votes. The country only returned to civilian rule in 2008. Country priorities: Guinea launched its third poverty reduction strategy before the Ebola crisis. The strategy was meant to boost economic growth and help the country achieve its MDGs. But that all changed when Ebola broke out in 2013. Now, the government’s ultimate priority is to bring Ebola cases down to zero and move to the recovery phase. The outbreak has put a strain on the economy, reduced human capital, exacerbated other health issues, put off investors and had an impact on the country’s food security. Donor priorities: Several donors that pulled out of the country following a military coup in 2008 have only just resumed aid to Guinea when the crisis broke, and a number of them are reviewing their assistance to match current needs arising from the outbreak. The European Union for instance is set to ramp up its health and sanitation aid in Guinea. France meanwhile pledged 100 million euros in 2014 to open care centers in its former colony. In February, the World Bank teamed up with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and national authorities to launch a $5 million initiative to increase awareness in rural areas about Ebola, as well as to assist farming-dependent households with the aim of averting a food crisis and restore livelihood in affected communities. Ivory Coast Significance: The presidential election in 2010 resulted in violence, after the National Election Commission declared Alassane Ouattara as the winner. Experts argue a lot still needs to be done in terms of security reforms and national reconciliation to ensure the success of the upcoming elections. Some of the government’s decisions, such as the temporary release of those suspected of violence in 2010, are not helping reconciliation efforts. Country priorities: The government released a $20 billion national development plan in 2012 to boost the country’s economy and help ward off instability. That called for additional support from donors to fill the country’s financing gap, and investments from the private sector in the areas of agriculture, energy and infrastructure. The plan seems to be working, with the World Bank placing the country as among the top 10 best performers in its 2014 and 2015 Doing Business reports. Donor priorities: The World Bank is in the process of preparing a new country partnership framework with Ivory Coast, which is expected to be launched this year. The previous framework focused on governance, institution building, improving the country’s business climate and infrastructure, and boosting employment opportunities for the youth. France and Ivory Coast’s government meanwhile have just signed a second debt reduction contract worth 1.12 billion euros from 2015-2020. The money is meant to be reinvested in development projects in the country. Tanzania Significance: Unlike many of its neighbors, Tanzania’s past elections have been peaceful, so there are few concerns of election-related violence. What concerns stakeholders and observers, however, is whether the Chama Cha Mapinduzi party would remain in power, as it has over the past two decades — despite corruption allegations. But President Jakaya Kikwete can no longer run for a third term, which makes the upcoming election a test to see the country’s readiness and willingness to see a change in ruling party. Country priorities: In 2013, the government launched its Big Results Now initiative, in which it identifies eight priority sectors to accelerate development and become a middle-income country by 2025. The eight sectors are agriculture, business environment, education, energy, health, transport, resource mobilization and water. The government hopes to finance the initiative through public-private partnerships. Goals under the initiative are expected to be achieved this year. Donor priorities: The government’s BRN initiative is supported by a number of Tanzania’s donors. USAID has maintained support for Tanzania at above $550 million since 2013, with the bulk of its assistance allocated to health, with a particular focus on HIV and AIDS, and economic development. The World Bank meanwhile focuses its assistance on improving governance, building the capacity of local government to deliver services, rural development and the provision of social safety nets. The bank’s focus areas are not expected to change even as the country partnership strategy undergoes review this year “as they remain valid.” DfID, for its part, is focusing its assistance on wealth-creation programs in the hopes of shifting its assistance toward greater economic development, better service delivery and good governance. Do you work in any of these countries? What key development concerns have come up in relation to these elections? Leave a comment below. Check out more insights and analysis for global development leaders like you, and sign up as an Executive Member to receive the information you need for your organization to thrive.