China’s agricultural modernization model is today faced with significant limitations in terms of social and environmental sustainability. The change in trajectory, which will be difficult, will not come about without a recognition of smallholders.
Food supply security is a priority issue for China. The risks associated with the strategy that would involve relying on increasingly volatile global markets to feed over 1 billion people prompt the government to maintain high objectives for national agricultural production in its successive five-year plans.
However, these objectives are difficult to achieve due to the scarcity of the country’s resources. Indeed, with only 7 percent of arable land, China needs to feed almost 20 percent of the world’s population. In addition, the country has a relatively short supply of water resources, which are unevenly distributed over a territory that has vast desert areas including the Gobi Desert, and where the northeast is marked by recurring droughts that are expected to worsen due to the effects of climate change.