A new study published in The Lancet estimates that by the end of the decade, between 9.4 million and 22.6 million people could die as a result of foreign aid cuts by the United States and other Western donors.
“The evidence indicates that an abrupt and severe contraction of this funding could have grave repercussions, potentially resulting in a global death toll approaching — or even exceeding — that of the COVID-19 pandemic,” reads the study, which was published Monday and written by researchers from Brazil, Mozambique, and Spain.
Drawing on two decades of data from 93 countries, the study models two scenarios: a severe funding contraction that could result in 22.6 million deaths, and a “milder” scenario that would lead to 9.4 million deaths. The latter, explained the study’s coordinator Davide Rasella, is a continuation of the current downward trends, and one that would result in the deaths of 2.5 million children under 5 alone.