As climate aid dries up, experts warn that extremism is likely to rise

In a rural area of central Somalia, a water infrastructure project expected to bring food security to more than 1.65 million people is officially on hold. This project, which receives about 15% of its funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development, is located in an area where al-Shabab, an al-Qaida-linked militant group, operates. Al-Shabab, like other militant groups, finds particular success recruiting from farming and pastoralist communities that have been struck by drought or floods. This region has endured five successive seasons of drought, the longest in recent memory. According to UNICEF, it has left 5 million people in extreme food insecurity and nearly 2 million children at risk of malnutrition. Al-Shabab has conducted more than 10,000 attacks since 2006, resulting in more than 29,000 deaths. The Islamic State group, or ISIS, has also recently regrouped in the northeastern region of the country, compounding extremist threats in the region. The Jowhar Offstream Storage Project, or JOSP, is expected to enhance access to water for irrigation for over 300,000 people and reduce flood risk for 1.5 million people. This will provide farmers with a steady source of water and help reduce food insecurity, making residents less vulnerable to recruitment from organizations such as al-Shabab. The infrastructure portion of JOSP was supported by a $25 million grant from USAID until the foreign aid freeze was put in place by U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 20, his first day in office. The project is now paused. While there are other donors, the U.S. funds were earmarked for the construction of the facility — and without that money, the project cannot move forward. “Somali food security is also Somali national security,” said Adam Omar, JOSP’s project manager. “It's ironic that despite the justification for the aid freeze being tied to U.S. security, that ultimately it might impact U.S. national security interests in a negative way.” In addition to these indirect effects, the aid freeze has also threatened programs specifically intended to counter extremist activity, The Washington Post reported. One paused initiative, the Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program, is of particular concern. It is meant to improve the capacity of allies to respond to extremist threats. In 2023, the U.S. spent $264 million on this program. During the Biden administration, USAID positioned itself to intervene and provide farmers with the support they needed to self-sustain. In 2019, Congress passed the Global Fragility Act, or GFA, which is designed to improve U.S. efforts to prevent violent conflict and stabilize fragile states. GFA directs the State Department to develop 10-year plans for specific conflict countries, Somalia included. “There has been bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill for these programs because they cost a lot less than dealing with conflict and instability down the line,” said Erin Sikorsky, director of the Center for Climate and Security. “The implications of the abrupt halting of these programs is going to be very destabilizing.” --— Janani Vivekananda, head of the climate diplomacy and security program, Adelphi But now, with U.S. foreign aid frozen, climate and national security experts are worried about how terrorist activity — both locally and internationally — could surge as extremist groups capitalize on a sudden dearth of leadership and a slew of struggling farmers dealing with the increasing effects of climate change. An uncertain climate Jihadist and militant groups have a long history of exploiting farmers and pastoralists in drought-stricken regions. While there is no official documentation from these groups about the origins of their recruits, studies have shown that terrorist activity thrives in areas hit hard by climate change. Researchers have also found several instances of these groups preying on farming communities that can no longer rely on their crops. In Syria, a third of ISIS’s local recruits came from herding communities that make up just 2% to 3% of the population, and two-thirds of people held in an Iraqi jail as suspected jihadists were farmers, according to “The Heat and The Fury,” a book on climate violence that involves extensive on-the-ground reporting by journalist and researcher Peter Schwartzstein. A United Nations study referenced in the book found that almost a third of participants knew someone who had joined an armed group for reasons related to climate change. “We are well aware that al-Shabaab and other violent extremist organizations are leveraging the implications of climate change in their operation in their messaging and their recruiting,” said a conflict adviser who asked to be anonymous due to the nature of their job. In 2013, ISIS targeted families in pastoral towns of Iraq who had lost their livelihoods due to failed harvests and land grabs from Baghdad businessmen, offering them $1,000 per month to join their cause — far more than they could have earned as farmers. Experts say that these groups particularly thrive when they sense an absence of power, whether that is from an outside aid provider such as the U.S. or the regional government. “Among extremist groups operating in the area, there is a realization that unless the government can provide services at the local level, they can provide those services in place of the government,” said a U.N. staff member working on climate who asked to be anonymous due to the nature of their job. “If the U.S. isn't there to help with those challenges, that gives an opening for extremist groups,” said Sikorsky. USAID’s security role The U.S., and USAID in particular, has several programs that use climate as a gauge for security threats. “In the past administration, there was a major push on climate change as a security threat at very senior levels,” said the conflict adviser. “USAID was the tip of the spear on that for a lot of reasons; we are incredibly well positioned to both diagnose and address climate change as a security risk.” The adviser mentioned several programs in particular that help do this. The first is the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or FEWS NET, which is a critical and leading source of up-to-date data to predict and track food insecurity in nearly 30 countries in Africa, Central America, and Asia. The data is useful for helping predict where climate change and security threats meet, prioritize those areas, and spend money more efficiently, they said. FEWS NET went offline on Jan. 30 and is still down. The second program they mentioned was Fragile Waters, a five-year program meant to help increase water security in vulnerable places. It is also offline. Many USAID projects, whether they are for irrigation, food security, water storage, energy, or road infrastructure, are instrumental in staving off terrorist activities. “The implications of the abrupt halting of these programs is going to be very destabilizing,” said Janani Vivekananda, the head of the climate diplomacy and security program at Adelphi, a leading independent think-tank for climate, environment, and development. “Regardless of the quality of the programming and its ability to address the underlying grievances,” Vivekananda said, the halt will leave a vacuum for new donors to step in. “Make no mistake,” said the conflict adviser, “Al Shabaab, Boko Haram, and other extremist organizations are going to point to this and say, ‘The Americans don't care.’ And then they will say, ‘We're here to help.’”