As US pulls out of Afghanistan, development must adjust, experts say

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rapidly devolving security situation will have serious implications for development organizations, donors, and multinational institutions that will all need to adjust to a changing landscape and help avoid a total collapse of the state, according to a range of experts who spoke with Devex. Already, the United Nations is warning of a fresh humanitarian crisis, as people flee violence that is only expected to get worse. William Byrd, an Afghanistan expert at the United States Institute of Peace, said that for now a priority should be for international lenders and donors to ensure budget support to the Afghan government. “If you cut aid sharply, it can precipitate a fiscal and state collapse,” Byrd said. “Until the situation gets really bad, delivering the aid through the Afghan government is not only a viable option but one of the better ones.” A number of experts pointed out that the 1992 collapse of the government of Mohammad Najibullah came after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union and the end of aid with the dissolution of the bloc. “The less you are invested in big physical infrastructure and more invested in people and building capacity, the better it will be.” --— Michael Harsch, visiting assistant professor, Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center A danger in the months ahead is the Afghan government taking simultaneous hits to its revenue, if aid is cut at the same time that customs duties are diminished by the Taliban taking over border crossings. Moreover, it could lose additional tax revenue inside the country as it splinters, with warlords and other local people already setting up their own efforts to push back against the Taliban. Foreign backers of the government need to be forthright with the Afghan government, according to Noah Coburn, an academic at Bennington College who has written multiple books on the country. “The number one misstep of the [U.S. President Joe] Biden government is that they have been very unclear of what they want the future of their Afghanistan policy to be,” he said. Donors and development banks should set overt benchmarks to remove opacity and create some certainty during a tumultuous time, particularly as the Taliban gain ground and the peace process seems stunted. “There needs to be a clear policy saying they are with you and will stand with you under these clear circumstances and not under these circumstances,” Coburn said. The government’s reduced capacity to deliver for the people — hampered in no small part by its own internal squabbles and maladministration — comes as the nation is reeling from a severe drought affecting millions of people, high food prices, greater insecurity, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Byrd noted that the World Bank could shift from project-based support to increased levels of direct aid to the government budget. Support could also be stepped up to the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, which is administered by the bank on behalf of donors. By working directly through the fund and the government, the international community “avoids the issue of openly and explicitly funding the Taliban, since these are nationwide programs,” he said. At the same time, there needs to be contingency planning, experts said, so that investments are sustainable regardless of what happens to the government in Kabul. “The World Bank really needs to think about the right sectors and regions to invest in,” said Michael Harsch, visiting assistant professor of international relations at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center. Like Byrd, his advice is to avoid big-ticket infrastructure that could become targeted by attacks — even though this can be exactly the type of project that some multilateral lenders like to support. “In reality, it will be harder to do development once the Taliban takes over,” Harsch warned. “The less you are invested in big physical infrastructure and more invested in people and building capacity, the better it will be,” he said, citing health and education as key examples of projects that could survive in areas under Taliban control. This, in part, is thanks to the connections that already exist between workers at medical clinics and the armed opposition, as they have long had to navigate the fractured control over contested areas. Experts said key advantages of investing in budget support — and projects dedicated to what is often referred to as human capital — are keeping people in the country and helping Afghans build up their own nation. “I’ve watched a lot of brain drain,” lamented Marianne O’Grady, deputy country director for CARE in Afghanistan, who has worked in the nation for years. This exodus of the motivated and educated hurts the country’s ability to shore up its core institutions. The World Bank has remained committed to the country, a bank spokesperson said in a statement to Devex. “Afghanistan derives 75 percent of its public spending from foreign aid, so any cutback will lead to a collapse in public services, economic activity, and living standards—and fuel more instability,” the statement said. It said the bank has continued to view forms of budget support, such as that for the Finance Ministry, as “the most effective mechanisms to support the delivery of basic public services, even in areas of contested control and under difficult security conditions.” The Asian Development Bank said it has remained committed to Afghanistan’s “critical development needs” but declined to give specifics on its plans going forward. O’Grady at CARE cautioned that there are shortfalls and holdups of aid, even for supposedly popular programs such as support for the protection of abused women and girls’ education. “My female staff is like, ‘What is going to happen to us?’” she related. The deputy country director said she sees donor fatigue and other issues as real concerns that need to be addressed and overcome before it is too late. “The very first thing to do is to make sure funds get released as soon as they can,” she said. “The humanitarian needs are increasing day by day,” O’Grady said from Kabul, warning that desperation can lead to increased levels of violence. She described people already fleeing their homes with nothing but the clothes on their backs. “Folks are really, really struggling.”