COP 28 becomes first to focus on cycle of conflict and climate change

An estimated 7 out of 10 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries are also among the most fragile. Poor governance and conflict leave people more vulnerable to climate change while worsening climate impacts can fuel further tensions. This vicious circle risks leaving the world’s most vulnerable people even more exposed to the climate crisis. Initiated by the United Arab Emirates, which presides over the talks, the COP 28 declaration on climate, relief, recovery, and peace is the first initiative to elevate the intersection of climate, security, and humanitarian action to the top political level in the United Nations talks. Experts have described the initiative as “a big step” in bridging silos to bring partners from different sectors to the table and build political momentum on the issue at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. “Communities that are highly vulnerable to climate change and are facing conflict risks are not receiving the financing they need to adapt to the climate crisis,” said Adrianna Hardaway, senior policy advisor for climate at Mercy Corps. The issue, she said, has so far “fallen through the gaps” of the U.N. climate process. Politically elevating the issue could help “shape the tenor of the climate negotiations” going forward, for example, by starting a conversation about how a new global finance goal and the newly established loss and damage fund can help support fragile states, said Hardaway. The declaration acknowledges that “fragility and conflict increase people’s vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards and impede coping capacity and adaptation options.” At the same time, climate impacts “exacerbate humanitarian needs and constitute a significant and growing challenge to stability.” Major donor nations, including European countries, the United States, Canada, and China signed the declaration at the launch on Sunday alongside small island developing states and least developed countries, such as conflict-affected Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. U.N. agencies, the World Bank and other multilateral development banks, the Green Climate Fund, and humanitarian NGOs also joined the call to action. A recent U.N report warned that the gap in funding adaptation in low-income countries has grown by hundreds of billions of dollars. Of the finance that does flow, people living in fragile states receive only a fraction. Between 2014 and 2021, extremely fragile states received only $2.1 per person in multilateral climate finance compared to $161.7 per person for non-fragile states, one study shows. “If we do not manage to protect the most vulnerable people in the most fragile contexts, then humanitarian needs will spiral out of control in a warmer world,” Gernot Laganda, climate director at the World Food Programme, told Devex. Among some of the barriers are real and perceived risks associated with working in fragile settings, poor governance, lack of data, and capacity to formulate proposals for funding. Signatories committed to strengthen collaborations and enhance financing in fragile contexts by making funding predictable, flexible, timely, and easy to access for national and sub-national governments, and local partners. They pledged to strengthen the capacity of recipients to absorb, allocate, and report on the funding effectively. “At the moment, the big climate funds don’t really have incentives to take risks and have programs in places that are more fragile,” said Janani Vivekananda, head of the climate diplomacy and security programme at Adelphi. But prioritizing these nations in funding plans can help channel money and incentivize funders to increase their risk appetite, she said. Vivekananda added that the declaration could set a precedent for countries to think about the implications of climate action on peace building in the same way considerations around gender have become embedded in international climate programs. Ultimately, it’s about focusing on anticipatory action which can help address climate impacts and prevent conflict, which is “much harder to do” than reacting, she said. “The goal is for climate action to support peace in these fragile contexts. It’s not a nice-to-have. If it doesn’t promote peace, it’s not fit for purpose.” For Laganda, the priority is to transform the way climate finance reaches fragile states. When funds are channeled through national governments, it is too little too late to make it to the most vulnerable people, he argued. Signatories pledged to prioritize channeling finance at the local level by working with local governments, NGOs, and directly with affected communities, allowing them to participate in designing climate adaptation programs, and ensure projects don’t spark or aggravate tensions. Working with local groups could also allow funders to disburse smaller tranches of money in a more nimble way, helping to manage some of the risks. Laganda said the humanitarian infrastructure and networks of grassroots partners — such as schools and farmers’ associations — were well placed to channel these efforts. “At the moment, these networks are just considered delivery pathways for food or cash in case of emergencies. But they can also be used to deliver early warning information, locally led adaptation services, or participatory processes on what communities need to ramp up their protection,” he said. Mauricio Vazquez, who heads the ODI think tank’s policy work on global risks and resilience, warned this shouldn’t overshadow the need for building capacity at the system and government level. The challenge will be to turn political momentum into concrete actions on the ground. The first step will be to bring coherence to the package of solutions announced by signatories to implement the commitment, identify gaps, and “distill what is bullshit from what is real,” said Vazquez. Signatories agreed to reconvene at next year’s U.N. Climate Change Conference, or COP 29, to review progress.