COP30 reporters' notebook: Day 9

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025 Belém, Brazil — The agenda crunch is on this week at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, but many are growing increasingly confused by the different letters and initiative names coming out of the presidency. On Friday night, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago received a question about the trajectory of the fossil fuel phase-out road map and answered with information about the Baku to Belém road map. “I was so happy to be answering that question,” he joked as he realized his response was a little off topic. We now also have a plan for a Murtirão decision — referring to the Brazilian word for collective action. This seems to refer to a cover decision that seeks to resolve some of the contentious items moved to the side at the start of the decisions. The presidency also pitched a Belém political package, which appears to encompass the cover decision as well as the mainstream agenda items, such as the just transition and adaptation. If you’re dizzy from these terms, don’t worry, so are we. Experts told Devex that they are “seeing a clear shift in the negotiations now.” They say talks are accelerating with the COP30 secretariat staff working through the night and the presidency pushing for an agreement “on as many issues as possible” by Wednesday, Barbara Rosen Jacobson, senior advocacy adviser at Mercy Corps, told Devex. There is still a strong call for adaptation finance — the issue that we think could be most contentious in the final hours. But it’s hard to know how much of a barrier this will create. There is quite a lot of will for success in the hallways of COP30. “The time for performative diplomacy has now passed,” said Simon Stiell, the U.N. climate change executive secretary, on Monday. A play-by-play, day by day By Jesse Chase-Lubitz On Sunday evening, the COP presidency issued a summary note addressing the four problem topics of last week: the gap between current greenhouse gas emissions versus the level needed to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate finance, trade measures, and the transparency of country reports. It plans to bring these together and address them in a mutirão decision. The umbrella term for the decision is the Belém political package, which also includes mainstream agenda items such as adaptation and the just transition. This is likely to be rather unwieldy, covering around 14 topics and with wording broad enough to include just about anything. On Monday, the 11th letter from the presidency called for countries to “accelerate the pace.” By morning today, the presidency shared an update with delegates saying it was speeding up work on the Belém political package, and that delegates would receive draft texts today in order to work toward an agreement on Wednesday. Today, Tuesday, text came out that E3G said is “perhaps in better shape at this stage than seen at many recent COPs.” This includes a series of options that will be shaped in the final report and split into two parts — one for so-called interrelated issues set to come out midweek and another one at the end of the week that will cover everything else. “This is the most cohesive first-draft package a COP Presidency has put on the table in years,” said Gustavo Pinheiro, E3G senior associate. ADB says climate remains at its core By Jesse Chase-Lubitz Asian Development Bank’s chief economist, Alfred Park, told Devex that the U.S. push away from climate encouraged them to “really think hard about how the climate agenda supports the real development needs” of their member countries. At the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings, United States Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent expressed continued support for MDBs, but urged them to return to their “core missions.” ADB looked at its core mission — poverty reduction and improving the quality of life of the people in its member states — and found that climate-related assistance was consistent with that mission. “When we go around and talk to developing member country governments, there's still quite a lot of demand for support on climate,” Park told Devex. In 2024, ADB provided $12.3 billion in climate finance to low- and middle-income countries, up from $4.3 billion in 2020. Much of this is going toward adaptation projects, helping countries protect livelihoods, make agriculture and infrastructure more resilient, and reduce disaster risks. Where the minerals fall By Jesse Chase-Lubitz For the first time, transition minerals — lithium, nickel, and copper powering electric vehicles and solar storage — appear in a U.N. draft at COP30. Delegates are debating safeguards for communities near mines, responsible mining, and Indigenous peoples’ right to “free, prior, and informed consent.” But the language is fragile. A new draft even allows deleting the section entirely. “Minerals are still one edit away from disappearing,” said Antonio Hill of the Natural Resource Governance Institute. The impacts are already visible. In Poço Dantas, Brazil, lithium mining is cracking houses, contaminating water, and fueling conflict. “Before, life was calm … now we have a mountain of problems,” a resident said. Brazil, with 8% of global lithium reserves, seeks a framework to move beyond raw-material exports, even as it expands mining. South Africa and Burkina Faso push for domestic processing, fairer value chains, and stronger Indigenous rights. For mineral-rich countries, the fight is about not being the global north’s supply line. “We have mothers with their babies on their backs that work to make sure we can enjoy our mobile phones,” said Princess Abze Djigma of Burkina Faso. Demand for transition minerals could double by 2030 and quadruple by 2050. COP30 may decide whether that transition is just — or just another story of extraction. Read: As COP30 debates just energy transition, Brazil’s lithium towns suffer Dig deeper: Ministers arrive, money stalls, and minerals teeter at COP30 Related: How to turn the critical minerals boom into a development win LDCs say climate adaptation indicators are not enough By Jesse Chase-Lubitz Negotiators from the least developed countries, or LDCs, group attracted a horde of journalists this afternoon for a media huddle in the halls of COP30. The LDC group represents 44 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations. Three of the leading negotiators from the LDC group, Mokoena France of Lesotho, Lina Yassin of Sudan, and Aichetou Seck of Senegal, stressed that adaptation finance remains far behind needs. “We have contributed less than 1% of emissions, but we suffer the most when it comes to climate change,” said Yassin. Delegates highlighted ongoing work to establish the Global Goal on Adaptation, or GGA indicators, but said that they need more than measuring tools: they need finance. “Indicators don’t build our walls,” said Yassin. “They only show what’s going on.” LDCs are calling for tripling adaptation finance to $120 billion annually by 2030, pointing to a current gap of $310 billion in financing, based on a recent U.N.Environment Programme report on the shortfall of finance for adaptation. “Without an adaptation package, without an outcome that doesn’t just give us indicators, everything we’re discussing here is symbolic,” Yassin added.