What will be the next big story in development cooperation? We asked a new generation of global leaders, and many of them pointed to familiar themes: the need to improve value for money, the growing role of the private sector in development cooperation (as well as the rise of social business and new forms of public-private partnerships), and a sharpened focus on food security (as well as food pricing, land management and the plight of small-holder farmers).
“Development organizations will need to be increasingly agile, looking to partner both within and outside of the sector,” said Louise James, Europe lead of Accenture Development Partnerships. “Convergence and consolidation will all be on the up.”
Perhaps the most highly anticipated event of 2012 is Rio+20, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in Brazil’s second-largest city in June. Will it result in a set of targets to guide international cooperation after 2015, the year the Millennium Development Goals are to be met?
Here are predictions for 2012 from some of the Devex International Development Leaders in London.
A new global development consensus
“Flows of trade, investment and aid between emerging economies and less developed nations are increasing rapidly as the former seek to develop access to new resources and forge new alliances. This presents both opportunities and threats for sustainable development in poorer countries, and also raises important questions about whether it’s time for a new, truly global development consensus and if so, what it should look like.”
Rob Bailey, senior research fellow on energy, environment and resource governance, Royal Institute of International Affairs
The private sector’s role
“It’s about cooperation across sectors and not just across countries. Both the government and NGO sector are waking up to the immense potential of the private sector to play a more significant role in international development. There’s a new generation of business leaders coming through who sincerely believe that sustainability equates with profitability, responsibility with competitiveness and development with new opportunities. It’s a shift in commitment from lip service to deep-seated, and one which offers exciting possibilities for novel partnerships — but it’s not going to be all plain sailing, so expect a few bumps along the way!”
Nik Kafka, founder and managing director, Teach a Man to Fish U.K.
Beneficiary-driven assistance
“All too often, donors, whether they be multilateral, bilateral or NGOs, assume that they know what beneficiaries want without genuinely or systematically asking them, and these assumptions lead to poorly designed and implemented donor interventions. There will be in 2012 a bigger acknowledgement by development partners that aid programs must have the beneficiary at the heart of their agenda — and thus donors must proactively ensure that their programs have beneficiary input throughout the design, implementation and evaluation stages.”
Matthew Smith, principal adviser in the international development services practice, KPMG
Global economy
“I expect 2012 to be a year of significant economic instability, as the repercussions of ongoing developed-market financial crises are felt across the developing world. This will impact both aid, as governments and NGOs cut funding for programs, and trade, as the weakened economies import less goods from the developing world and in worst cases regress into protectionist policies. However, there will be winners emerging in development cooperation during the year, and I hope the big story will be the establishment of large-scale, commercially sustainable development initiatives — realizing the potential of agricultural growth corridors in Africa for example — that provide a replicable model for unlocking the vast economic potential of the developing world.”
Joel Roxburgh, head of sustainability, Vodafone
Africa
“What I hope the big story of 2012 will be is a series of transparent, peaceful elections across Africa — in places like Ghana, Sierra Leone, Kenya, Angola — following on from transparent, peaceful elections in Zambia, Cape Verde and Liberia in 2011. Building up a track record of transparent, peaceful elections — regardless of whether the incumbent or opposition parties win — with young people playing an active role as citizens to make this happen will give confidence to everyone, most importantly young people, that a bright future is attainable for themselves and their countries.”
Eric Levine, CEO, Restless Development
Microfinance
“Over the last few years, microfinance has swung from being heavily dependent on donors to being aggressively financed by debt and equity. In 2012, I think there will be a much needed rebalancing in the way that microfinance is funded, with an appropriate balance of donors financing R&D, combined with a more realistic approach from the debt and equity markets around what kind of returns are realistic and in the interest of poor. I hope that the market also bifurcates around those that are purely seeking profit and those that are seeking to do good.”
Richard Leftley, president and CEO, MicroEnsure
Food security
“The big and growing story is the role of the water-food-energy nexus in enabling businesses, NGOs and, most importantly, policymakers to understand how food and energy security must be underpinned by food security. We will hear much more of this at Rio+20 and beyond as we begin to discover the tradeoffs and synergies at the heart of a resource constrained world.”
Andy Wales, global head of sustainable development, SABMiller
Sustainable development
“There is a growing understanding of the need for coordinated global action to account for damaging externalities in global markets that put unsustainable pressure on finite resources. There must be global stewardship of these resources — soil, water, minerals, forests — to protect children, now and in future, from developmentally devastating threats of rising food prices and reduced supply, water shortages, mineral deficiency and resource conflict.”
Sally Faiz, global portfolio manager, Children’s Investment Fund Foundation
Rio and the MDGs
“It’s looking increasingly likely that the Rio sustainable development summit in June 2012 may fire the starting gun on a new set of Sustainable Development Goals. My own hope is that any such process will be one and the same as the process to figure out the post-2015 successors to the MDGs: the last thing we need is one set of goals for environment, and another for development. On a less positive note, the economic crisis will doubtless continue to lurch from one phase to another — overshadowing much of the development agenda throughout next year and beyond.”
Alex Evans, nonresident fellow (and head of program, resource scarcity, climate change and multilateralism), NYU Center on International Cooperation
Technology and social enterprise
“I believe that the biggest story in development in 2012 will be the potential for collaboration between information technology businesses and social enterprises in Africa. The explosive growth of mobile device usage in Africa presents an opportunity for entrepreneurs to deliver new services, including social services. For technology companies, there is now money to be made by cultivating a robust Internet infrastructure.”
Matt Mitro, founder and chairman, Indego Africa
Women and technology
“Women & technology are key to development progress in the 21st century. We need to advance economic and leadership opportunities for women in particular. When combined with technology, the potential is enormous.”
Henriette Kolb, CEO, The Cherie Blair Foundation for Women
Sports
“International Inspiration is the international legacy program of the 2012 London Olympic and Paralympic Games. The program sees a cooperation between UNICEF, U.K. Sport and the British Council. The sheer scale of this program (targeting over 12 million young people in 20 countries), coupled with its links to the largest sporting event in the world, will make this initiative a significant development story for 2012.”
Ned Wills, global director, Laureus Sport for Good Foundation
Public opinion
“As global economic instability continues to dominate politics and austerity measures reduce the standard of living here in the U.K., I think the big story will be how the sector mounts a more effective defense of international aid spending. Public support for international development has been shown to be too shallow and too transient, and the “national interest” argument appears to be gaining little traction. To succeed in winning back support, we need to overcome the public’s perception that global poverty can’t be solved.”
Kathy Peach, former head of external affairs, VSO
What do you think will be the top global development story of 2012? Let us know by leaving a comment below!