Devex CheckUp: The roadblocks to predicting where malaria will strike
Imagine if global health relied on a crystal ball — one that actually worked. It could predict when and where the next outbreak would take place, saving countless lives and trillions of dollars. Maybe, it could even predict the end result of the pandemic treaty discussions, which are currently ongoing.
No one has invented such a crystal ball yet. But there are brilliant scientists and researchers who have been working to develop early warning systems to predict disease outbreaks and help governments plan for interventions — including for diseases such as malaria, which scientists fear will become even more widespread with climate change.
In Peru, an early warning system project led by Duke University has demonstrated more than 90% sensitivity and specificity in predicting malaria outbreaks up to 12 weeks in advance.
About the author
Jenny Lei Ravelo@JennyLeiRavelo
Jenny Lei Ravelo is a Devex Senior Reporter based in Manila. She covers global health, with a particular focus on the World Health Organization, and other development and humanitarian aid trends in Asia Pacific. Prior to Devex, she wrote for ABS-CBN, one of the largest broadcasting networks in the Philippines, and was a copy editor for various international scientific journals. She received her journalism degree from the University of Santo Tomas.
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