Imagine if global health relied on a crystal ball — one that actually worked. It could predict when and where the next outbreak would take place, saving countless lives and trillions of dollars. Maybe, it could even predict the end result of the pandemic treaty discussions, which are currently ongoing.
No one has invented such a crystal ball yet. But there are brilliant scientists and researchers who have been working to develop early warning systems to predict disease outbreaks and help governments plan for interventions — including for diseases such as malaria, which scientists fear will become even more widespread with climate change.
In Peru, an early warning system project led by Duke University has demonstrated more than 90% sensitivity and specificity in predicting malaria outbreaks up to 12 weeks in advance.