Devex Newswire: AI key to solving next pandemic jigsaw puzzle

Vaccines that could save lives when the next pandemic strikes could be harder to develop than the ones that were used to bring COVID-19 under control — but artificial intelligence is at least making that daunting task “practical.”

Also in today’s edition: The devious tricks threatening a deal to stamp out plastic pollution, and the endgame nears over long-term PEPFAR reauthorization.

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‘X’ marks the spot

“We don't know which is the one that's going to hit,” says In-Kyu Yoon, of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, or CEPI, describing the preparations for “Disease X” — the unknown pathogen that could trigger the next pandemic.

The size of the task is almost beyond imagination. Scientists believe the virus threatening worldwide calamity is probably lurking within any of 25 virus families, but there can be thousands of viruses within each of those families.

It is like a dart that could land anywhere on a million-piece jigsaw puzzle. The hope, reports senior global health correspondent Sara Jerving, is that it lands where pieces of the puzzle have been put together, where there is knowledge of that virus and a vaccine response can be swift — and not where there is a blank space.

CEPI has a mission to develop that vaccine within 100 days, a mission that is turning to artificial intelligence to make the task manageable by helping researchers process and analyze enormous quantities of information in a way that humans cannot achieve.

“It makes it — in some ways — practical. That's what AI allows,” Yoon explains. “Going through that [humans sifting through the data] requires a lot of computing power. The real benefit of AI is that it can, in some ways, learn from its algorithm, and then keeps going forward in that way.”

For example, while there are more than a billion potential immunogens that could be used against each pathogen, researchers can use AI to narrow down the most promising protein designs, Sara was told.

They can also use large language models — AI programs that can recognize and generate text, already popularized through applications such as ChatGPT — to analyze data from genomic surveillance, to show how viruses evolve, and AI could also help with designing clinical trials.

However, this work depends on the quality of data. And, while there is a lot of data on coronaviruses, there is limited information about Nipah viruses, for example — and a belief that “the low-hanging fruit” of data may already have been plucked.

Read: How CEPI and its partners are using AI to prepare for 'Disease X'  (Pro)

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Not there yet

Speaking of pandemics, the latest effort by a World Health Organization negotiating body to strike an agreement on future prevention, preparedness, and response is making NGOs and global health experts feel decidedly queasy ahead of a May deadline.

A revised draft, circulated ahead of another nine days of intense talks, falls short in many areas, they say — including compliance, equal benefits for low- and middle-income countries, intellectual property rights, and preventing a stranglehold by high-income countries over the production of medical products.

The text is also silent on a call by the Pandemic Action Network and more than 80 other organizations to “collect, report, and analyze data disaggregated by sex, gender, ethnicity, race, and age” to ensure a just agreement.

Nina Schwalbe, chief executive of public health policy organization Spark Street Advisors, wants “many changes,” telling Devex: “If this is close to final, then negotiations and the negotiators have clearly failed to move the dial.”

Read: Latest pandemic treaty draft text still has 'many weaknesses'

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Life in plastic

“The last negotiations were definitely a disappointment,” says David Azoulay, from the Center for International Environmental Law, of talks aimed at striking a global treaty by the end of 2024 to end plastic pollution.

Graham Forbes, of Greenpeace USA, agrees, attacking “games being played” in Kenya last November — as a “relatively straightforward 30-40 page framework” mushroomed into an “unruly” 100 page-plus document.

As delegates prepare for a fourth round of negotiations in Canada in late April, Devex contributor Stéphanie Fillion sets the scene for what is shaping up to be a tussle between a “low ambition coalition” of oil-reliant economies that wants to focus on ways to recycle plastic and, on the other side, a “high ambition coalition” demanding the world goes much further with a cap on plastic production.

Forbes has accused the “low ambition” squad of using arcane procedure rules to make “strategic interventions [that] managed to keep us again from talking substance for the most of the meeting” last November.

Gustavo Meza-Cuadra, a Peruvian diplomat who chaired those negotiations, remains hopeful but realistic about the prospects for agreement by the end of 2024, saying: “It's difficult and challenging, but it's possible.”

Read: The clock is ticking for UN to figure out how to end plastic pollution (Pro)

ICYMI: UN plastics treaty raises concerns for low-income countries 

PEPFAR from home

Is the reauthorization of the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, over the finish line? Is the 2024 budget done yet? Not quite, but U.S. lawmakers said within a couple weeks we’ll know the picture for both issues, reports Devex Senior Reporter Adva Saldinger.

Despite the lack of bipartisanship on Capitol Hill, Republican and Democratic leaders on the committees that dictate foreign affairs showed up at an event Tuesday marking the 40th anniversary of InterAction, an alliance of NGOs working on eradicating global poverty and supporting vulnerable communities.

House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Rep. Mike McCaul, a Republican from Texas, quipped that he would take care of authorization on foreign aid issues if Sen. Chris Coons, a Democrat from Delaware who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee on state and foreign operations, takes care of the money.

Coons called on advocates to keep pressing their case, saying: “There’s so many other things testing us and pulling us and challenging us and if you don’t remind us of how many people’s lives hang in the balance often no one else will.” PEPFAR’s five-year reauthorization lapsed in October.

His Republican counterpart on the appropriations subcommittee, Sen. Lindsey Graham, said the U.S. must be more creative and innovative in partnering to address these challenges, particularly with the private sector. He said that can take time and, in the meantime, he’ll keep “fighting for every dollar.”

Adva suggests that will raise the eyebrows of advocates, especially as relying on the private sector to help address key development challenges hasn’t exactly panned out despite being a priority for nearly a decade.

Related reads: 

• Abortion politics cast shadow over PEPFAR reauthorization
• What ‘extremism’ in US politics means for PEPFAR’s future

+ Check out our page dedicated to the future of U.S. aid.

Up in arms

Four major NGOs in Denmark are taking aim at the nation’s government and suing to prevent arms sales to Israel and “serious crimes” against civilians in Gaza.

Oxfam Denmark, Amnesty International Denmark, ActionAid Denmark, and Palestinian human rights organization Al-Haq want the national police and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to stop exports of weapons to Israel, they said in a statement on Tuesday.

By selling arms, Denmark violates international rules on arms trade and risks becoming complicit in violations of international humanitarian law — including war crimes —
and a plausible genocide, they said.

“For five months we have been talking about a potential genocide in Gaza, but we have not seen politicians take action. Denmark should not be sending weapons to Israel when there is a reasonable suspicion that it is committing war crimes in Gaza. We need to get the court’s word on Denmark’s responsibility,” says Tim Whyte, of Mellemfolkeligt Samvirke, also known as ActionAid Denmark.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom may be looking again at its arms sales. Foreign Secretary David Cameron says they will cease if the U.K. rules that Israel is breaking international humanitarian law by blocking aid deliveries, a judgment to be made “in the coming days.”

+ Catch up on our coverage of the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

In other news

The United Nations is aiming to secure over $850 million for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, with nearly 95% of the Rohingya population there still relying on humanitarian aid. [Al Jazeera]

Nigeria’s deepening economic and security crises are fueling food shortages and unrest, raising fears of widespread hunger and lawlessness in Africa's most populous nation. [Financial Times]

Freed Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele has launched Protect Humanitarians with the Belgian King Baudouin Foundation to advocate and create a fund for aid workers' legal, medical, and mental health needs. [Politico]

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