Devex Newswire: As Trump is inaugurated, what happens to USAID?

People around the world will not only be watching the swearing-in of the 47th U.S. president later today but also what happens immediately afterward, with Donald Trump planning a blitzkrieg of far-reaching orders and announcements in the days ahead. We break down what this transition period might mean for USAID and bring you the latest buzz on who might take over the agency — buzz that is already generating consternation.

Also in today’s edition: Another big global event starts today — the World Economic Forum in Davos. We’ve got you covered there as well.

Reading the signs

I imagine some people are interpreting the decision to move Trump’s inauguration inside the Capitol due to the frigid temperatures outside as some kind of sign. I just see it as a sign that I need to buy a warmer coat because this winter in Washington, D.C. has been especially brutal.

But if I had to come up with a cliched metaphor, I’d say the weather outside mirrors the cold shoulder Trump gives to the status quo. Sorry, best I could do.

And all signs point to the fact that he will issue an onslaught of executive orders on his first day to upend that status quo, whether it’s an unprecedented immigration crackdown or flooding the federal bureaucracy with loyalists.

So what does this mean for USAID and its partners?

My colleague Michael Igoe has a helpful guide on what we might expect — from who will be in charge while a successor to USAID Administrator Samantha Power is sorted out, to whether workers will have to ditch the business-on-top-pajamas-on-the-bottom Zoom dress code and return to the office straight away.

On political appointees, for example, George Ingram of the Brookings Institution tells Michael that every new administration typically replaces all senior political appointees.

“The issue isn't the elimination of political appointees, but the retirement of career professionals and the potential brain drain. ... There’s a sizable portion of the aid cadre at a senior level who are at retirement age, and others at a mid-level may be questioning whether they want to work in this administration.”

David Berteau, president and CEO of the Professional Services Council, outlines the various ways in which the White House could make changes to projects that implementing partners are already working on, although he noted that his organization — which advocates for the government services sector — “has no indication of plans for any of these actions at USAID.”

Still, expect bumps.

“This is my eighth transition of one president to another, and all of them have some level of disruption,” Berteau says. “Based on what has been said publicly by Mr. Trump or his announced nominees, this transition has the potential to be more disruptive than some.”

Read: What will the presidential transition mean for US aid implementers? (Pro)

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Re-Pete performance

In development circles, the burning question on everyone’s minds is who will run USAID. So far, the political parlor game resembles a game of Wheel of Fortune. As names whirl by, we’re all anxiously waiting to see which one the Trump wheel lands on.

However, one name is taking the anxiety to a whole new level. Several sources tell us that Pete Marocco, a former Trump official, is in the mix for administrator, including one person inside USAID who shared that staff has also heard Marocco is in the running.

For those who don’t remember, Marocco left a trail of controversy in his wake during the first Trump administration as he hopscotched from agency to agency — starting at the Departments of Defense, State, and Commerce, and ending at USAID’s Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization.

Following Trump’s departure, reports surfaced that Marocco and his wife were seen inside the Capitol during the Jan. 6 riot. Now, Marocco has been seen at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida base camp, where he’s reportedly working on the transition team.

ICYMI: Return to Trumpworld — who will shape US aid policy?

Footprints in the snow

There are lots of parallels between D.C. and Davos at the moment. For one thing, both have snow on the ground — yes, I know that’s common for an Alpine resort town in Switzerland, but it’s actually not a common occurrence in the U.S. capital anymore. Political bigwigs and business execs have also converged on both to glad hand, forge connections, and toast the town — some at Trump’s inauguration and others at the World Economic Forum, which kicks off today.

And the two worlds will intersect later this week when Trump makes a virtual appearance at the forum. In the meantime, his return is sure to be the talk of the town (maybe not the toast of it, but who knows).

“We have been told that the administration wants a broad footprint [at Davos] towards the end of our meeting,” says Børge Brende, WEF’s president and chief executive officer. “We are very pleased by that because we know that there is a lot of interest from our participants and also, the rest of the world, to decipher and understand the policies of the new administration.”

However, participants will also be trying to read one another and decipher how their interests may align — including development types trying to see how they fit in with the wealthy and powerful.

There’s actually plenty of potential overlap, Brende tells Devex President and Editor-in-Chief Raj Kumar. He’s in Davos alongside my colleague Elissa Miolene, who is on Swiss watch. She’ll be bringing you the latest play-by-play in special Davos newsletters throughout the week, including one in just a few hours, so stay tuned for that!

Over the line

That’s what it took to potentially derail the U.S. government’s multibillion-dollar flagship HIV/AIDS program after investigators discovered those several thousand dollars were spent on paying nurses who helped provide 21 abortions in Mozambique between 2022 and 2024 using PEPFAR money.

U.S. law prohibits foreign aid from funding abortions abroad. The revelation quickly prompted Sen. James Risch, the Republican chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to put a hold on $1 billion in funding for the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, pending an investigation into the matter, my colleague Adva Saldinger reports.

But does the punishment fit the crime? PEPFAR has spent billions over the last two decades saving an estimated 25 million lives.

“It’s a violation, but ultimately it was discovered, investigated, mitigated, and it's unfortunate, to be sure, but I think it's really important that we don't let this take away or overshadow all of the incredible lifesaving work that PEPFAR has done for more than 20 years,” Elisha Dunn-Georgiou of the Global Health Council tells Adva.

PEPFAR was dragged into America’s culture wars last year when Republicans accused it of supporting abortions. Although lawmakers managed to pass a one-year reauthorization, which expires on March 25, this incident could jeopardize further extension.

Read: Can a $4,100 mistake threaten PEPFAR’s future? 

PEPFAR reaching

As former U.S. global AIDS coordinator, Dr. Eric Goosby led PEPFAR from 2009 to 2013 during the halcyon days when it enjoyed bipartisan support. Today, that support has frayed, and Goosby argues that it’s time for PEPFAR to evolve and embrace greater sustainability and country ownership. That includes more seamlessly integrating HIV services into primary care and supporting country-led health systems.

“Across agencies and field operations, there is often a cautious approach to shifting priorities, driven by a well-intentioned concern about maintaining quality and avoiding setbacks in key indicators,” he writes in an opinion piece for Devex. “This caution, while understandable, has constrained opportunities for bold, forward-looking decision-making that could further strengthen the resilience and leadership of partner countries in managing their own HIV responses.”

Opinion: The case for PEPFAR to push for country ownership in HIV response

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In other news

Ninety Palestinians were freed from Israeli prisons while Hamas released three Israeli captives in the first prisoner exchange under the Hamas-Israel ceasefire. [Al Jazeera]

Nigeria has officially joined BRICS as a partner country, according to an announcement made by the bloc’s current chair. [AP]

The world's billionaires got $2 trillion richer in 2024, with five people now on track to become trillionaires within a decade, according to a report by Oxfam. [The Guardian]

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