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All we’ve been hearing about throughout 2025 is U.S. foreign aid cuts. Could we be seeing an actual increase in 2026 — and a big one to boot?
Also in today’s edition: The U.S. Congress was quite busy yesterday, rolling out several pleasant surprises for development supporters.
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Technically, the compromise foreign assistance budget that just emerged from the U.S. Congress is not an increase — it’s a 16% decrease from what was approved by lawmakers last year. However, that 16% doesn’t even compare to the nearly 50% cut that U.S. President Donald Trump wanted.
The $50 billion topline figure for foreign assistance programs in fiscal 2026 that the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate agreed to could be a long-awaited break for a beleaguered development community. But as with so many things on Capitol Hill, it’s not a done deal. Both chambers still need to pass it, and Trump must sign it — not to mention that a potential Jan. 30 government shutdown looms large. There’s also the big elephant in the room: Even if passed, will the White House spend the funds as Congress intended? Its track record on that, after all, is spotty.
The myriad questions aside, it’s still a major step in parsing what U.S. foreign aid will look like moving forward. My colleague Adva Saldinger dug into the numbers and found lots to chew on. Among the highlights: Global health programs emerge as relative winners, retaining more than $9.4 billion in total funding.
And while cuts still span most program areas, the compromise restores some funding absent from the House version, including support for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance — more on that below — and the International Development Association, the World Bank’s fund for the lowest-income countries.
The bill also includes about $5.4 billion for humanitarian assistance, establishing a new budget line that merges funding previously split between the international disaster assistance and migration and refugee assistance accounts. Among many reporting requirements, Congress directs the State Department to outline how it will program, manage, and monitor humanitarian assistance funding.
But serious questions remain about how the State Department will administer aid programs and whether it has the staffing to do so. On that note, the bill provides almost $112 million for operating expenses tied to assistance administration, a sharp contrast to the nearly $1.7 billion for USAID’s operating expenses in fiscal year 2024.
Still, there’s a lot that could raise the hopes of aid advocates, including spending on institutions that looked like they had been fed into Elon Musk’s proverbial wood chipper. Whether they come out somewhat rebuilt remains to be seen.
Read: US lawmakers strike $50B foreign assistance deal, surpassing Trump's plan
One notable change in the fiscal 2026 compromise involves Gavi, which just six months ago faced a grand U.S. contribution of zero, with the Trump administration saying it would cut all funding for the vaccine-focused organization.
Gavi’s inclusion in the fiscal 2026 funding bill, however, comes with the usual slew of caveats: The compromise bill may go nowhere or get ignored by Trump, even if he ultimately signs it.
Still, it’s an intriguing turn of events, writes Devex Senior Reporter Sara Jerving. At Gavi’s high-level replenishment conference last June, the U.S. health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic, said Gavi needed to “start taking vaccine safety seriously,” criticized its recommendations around COVID-19 vaccines, and accused it of silencing dissenting opinions during the pandemic.
At the time, critics questioned whether RFK Jr. had the power to make such an announcement, given that Congress is tasked with deciding the nation’s budget. This uncertainty has left the organization in limbo — though this compromise bill could finally bring some clarity.
Read: US Congress backs Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, despite Trump admin cuts
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Education advocates also breathed a tentative sigh of relief after seeing the compromise attach $691.5 million for global education programs, including $152 million for multilateral partnerships supporting education.
As anticipated, the total for the Nita M. Lowey Basic Education Fund came in slightly lower than the $737.6 million figure in last year’s U.S. House of Representatives bill. But the amount for multilaterals remained the same.
Giulia McPherson, the U.S. executive director of the Global Campaign for Education-US, tells Devex that the sum was still relatively good, “considering everything”.
“Overall, we’re encouraged that Congress has voiced its support for these programs and we will continue to encourage the administration to implement the congressionally mandated funds,” she tells Devex.
McPherson hopes Congress will pass the bill as soon as possible and that the State Department will begin allocating funding swiftly after that. As Devex reported, the U.S. government only spent about 7% of its $922 million budget for international basic education in fiscal 2025.
However, given that disbursing U.S. foreign assistance is now managed by the State Department, McPherson warns it might take time for allocations to emerge — while noting that the U.S. government has not indicated which agencies, NGOs, partner organizations, or countries might get a slice of the pie.
ICYMI: Will the US start funding global education again in 2026?
Since 2000, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, has been at the heart of U.S. trade relations with sub-Saharan African nations, providing them with tariff-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products in a bid to support economic development, democratic reform, and stronger geopolitical ties.
But last year, despite the relative bipartisan support it had enjoyed, Congress let AGOA’s reauthorization lapse. This year, it’s showing signs of life, Adva reports.
Late yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to extend AGOA — a month after the House Ways and Means committee approved a bill that would reauthorize AGOA for three years.
“Our nation’s economic, strategic, and national security interests are front and center in AGOA. Think about it: This program strengthens our critical supply chains and helps us counter the harmful global influence of nations like China and Russia,” House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, a Republican from Missouri, said prior to the vote.
“For over 20 years, AGOA has been the foundation for U.S.-Africa trade, and it's unlocked hundreds of thousands of jobs; billions in trade depend on it,” Doug Anderson of the ONE Campaign tells Adva. “And at a time when the United States is focused on strategic competition, and our competitors are so laser-focused on Africa, we need to show up in a serious and sustained way.”
But next steps depend on the Senate, where AGOA’s fate remains uncertain. That’s why its proponents may search for a must-pass bill they can attach the extension to in order to expedite AGOA’s passage.
Read: US House passes extension of African Growth and Opportunity Act
$214.5 billion
—That’s how much donor countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cumulatively spent on official development assistance in 2024. And although the OECD’s latest report precedes the historic aid cuts by the United States and other major donors, it already shows a 6% real-term cut from previous levels.
My colleague Miguel Antonio Tamonan crushed the numbers to look specifically at which sectors came out on top.
In the coming weeks, we will also publish a report that will focus on the geographical distribution of ODA.
Read: Which sectors received the most aid in 2024? (Pro)
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Trump’s decision to withdraw from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change may be illegal, according to law experts. [The Guardian]
A severe winter storm cycle in Gaza is destroying fragile shelters and causing infant deaths from hypothermia, and leaving 1.1 million people in urgent need of assistance as weather conditions worsen. [UN News]
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