Devex Pro Insider: Does aid cause terrorism, or does terrorism cause aid?

A possible link between international terrorism and aid is explored in new research published this week by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in the United States. It’s not clear what got them curious about this question — they refrained from mentioning — but they’ve run the numbers, and there’s a clear correlation. The more incidents of transnational terrorism originating in your country, the more aid you get.

The authors refrained from much explanation of why this might be the case, although they did include another graph which shows that the reverse correlation is true for foreign direct investment.

A natural conclusion that you might draw from the preceding paragraphs is that going out and bombing people is a good way to attract foreign aid. But let’s unpack this conclusion a bit.

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