A deterioration of global peacefulness, driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will increase food insecurity around the world and continue to batter the global economy, according to the 2022 Global Peace Index.
The index, a measure of peace using 23 indicators released annually for the past 16 years, found that global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.3% in 2021. This marks the 11th deterioration of peacefulness in 14 years.
The report noted there is particular danger of political instability in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
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“The supply chain constraints, the ongoing food crisis — rising food insecurity as well — are likely to contribute to further deterioration of peace, at least in the short term,” said Michael Collins, executive director for the Americas at the Institute for Economics and Peace, which puts out the GPI.
Many sub-Saharan African countries that are “greatly reliant” on grain and fuel from Russia and Ukraine are already significantly food-insecure, he added.
“We foresee particular danger there,” Collins said at a launch event for the index Wednesday.
Data for the 2022 index was gathered through March 31, so it includes only the first month of the war in Ukraine. That country experienced the largest decline in peacefulness, with its score deteriorating 16% and putting it 153rd out of the 163 countries measured. Russia was also among the top five countries that worsened, ranking even below Ukraine at 160. Only Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan — the world’s least peaceful country — ranked lower.
“In terms of deterioration, some of these underlying measures of resilience … have been deteriorating as well — these underlying attitudes, institutions, and structures that we see create a sustained peacefulness over time,” Collins said, citing “elements related to corruption, socioeconomic exclusion, group grievances, and the quality of information that people are having access to.”
The index measures peacefulness across three “domains”: safety and security, ongoing conflict, and militarization. This year, ongoing conflict had the largest decline of any domain measured by the GPI since 2008. Countries experiencing violent internal conflict rose from 29 to 38, while the number of people killed in them has decreased since 2017.
Overall, 90 countries improved in peacefulness, while 71 deteriorated and two remained stable. Iceland has consistently ranked as the most peaceful nation since 2008, with New Zealand, Ireland, Denmark, and Austria rounding out the top five. The U.S. ranked 129th, while the U.K. ranked 34th.
Violence cost the world economy $16.5 trillion in 2021, equal to 10.9% of global gross domestic product.
Metrics that worsened included political terror, political insecurity, neighboring country relations, and refugees and people displaced within their own countries. From 2008 to 2022, the number of forcibly displaced people grew from 31 million to 88 million. In 17 countries, at least 5% of the people are refugees or internally displaced.
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“What scares me the most? It’s layer after layer now after layer. So you take this global rise [in violence] … add onto that COVID, add onto that now land war in Europe, add onto that worldwide economic shocks — and then … there’s always climate,” said Robert Jenkins, assistant administrator with the Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization at the U.S. Agency for International Development, during the launch event.
“We haven’t even begun to see the real repercussions,” he said.
Metrics that improved included militarization, which has decreased in 113 countries since 2008. Terrorism has also improved, with 70 countries reporting no attacks in 2021.
Along with Ukraine and Russia, the countries with the largest deteriorations in peacefulness were Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Haiti — all of which have ongoing conflict.
Guinea and Haiti were among the five places selected for implementation of the United States’ 2019 Global Fragility Act, legislation meant to overhaul the way that the U.S. government engages in fragile states to focus on conflict prevention.
Jenkins said there are teams in the selected locations — which also include Libya, Papua New Guinea, and the rest of coastal West Africa — “flat-out working” to develop separate 10-year plans to promote stabilization.
“What does Haiti look like in 10 years? I don’t know what it looks like in six months. So that’s a harder thought process than it sounds. … Everyone says we’re going to work better together — the same people, with the same organizations, the same bureaucracy. How do we somehow transform ourselves? And we’re being asked to do it quickly,” Jenkins said.
“This is hard. There’s a reason that the community and Congress had to tell us ‘get your act together.’ … None of these places will be solved somehow if there’s a solution within 10 years. But we are committed to working through the problem set.”
About the author
Teresa Welshtmawelsh
Teresa Welsh is a Senior Reporter at Devex. She has reported from more than 10 countries and is currently based in Washington, D.C. Her coverage focuses on Latin America; U.S. foreign assistance policy; fragile states; food systems and nutrition; and refugees and migration. Prior to joining Devex, Teresa worked at McClatchy's Washington Bureau and covered foreign affairs for U.S. News and World Report. She was a reporter in Colombia, where she previously lived teaching English. Teresa earned bachelor of arts degrees in journalism and Latin American studies from the University of Wisconsin.
