You know the old saying that it’s dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future? Well, for the new year ahead and in a fast-changing global development landscape, I’m going to chance it. Here are six things to watch for in 2014.
1. Pressure eases on official aid budgets, but donor reform continues apace
For some of the world’s biggest bilateral donors, the first years of this decade have been spent largely on the defensive when it comes to aid budgets. In the wake of the financial crisis and global recession, governments in the developed world were caught in bitter debates about austerity, with foreign aid imperiled. Fortunately, strong coalitions built over the prior decade largely protected investments in global health and development. In the United Kingdom, a tough austerity program led by a conservative government specifically ring-fenced the aid budget. In Canada and Australia, conservative governments have put aid budgets under real pressure, but made no major cuts. Even liberal governments, such as the Hollande administration in France, felt the pressure but managed to keep their aid budgets steady. The European Commission’s seven-year budget set in 2012 included, after some struggle, a small increase in development aid. In the United States, 2013 ended — at long last — with a two-year budget deal that preserved the Obama administration’s development commitments.